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AI Earnings Predictions for Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+2.29%

$31.75

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+5.49%

$32.74

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+3.31%

$32.07

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $31.04 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q1 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q1 2026 BUY +2.29% +5.49% +3.31% 100.0% Pending
Q4 2025 SELL -0.73% -2.53% -5.84% 100.0% +1.28%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

May 7, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+2.29%

$31.75

5D

+5.49%

$32.74

20D

+3.31%

$32.07

Price: $31.04 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001319161-26-000021

EX-99.1

2 q22026ex991.htm

EX-99.1

Document

WARNER MUSIC GROUP CORP. REPORTS RESULTS FOR FISCAL SECOND QUARTER ENDED MARCH 31, 2026

Financial Highlights

•Double-Digit Revenue Growth Underpinned by Strong Operating Performance across Recorded Music and Music Publishing

•Acceleration in Recorded Music Streaming Growth Driven by Per Subscriber Minimum Increases and Continued Market Share Gains

•Robust Margin Expansion Supported by Operating Performance and Cost-Savings Delivery; High End of 150-200 Basis Points Full-Year Margin Expansion Guidance Expected

•Joint Venture with Bain Acquired $650 million in Recorded Music and Music Publishing Catalogs

For the three months ended March 31, 2026

•Total revenue increased 17%, or 12% in constant currency

•Net income was $181 million compared to $36 million in the prior-year quarter

•Operating income increased 57% to $264 million versus $168 million in the prior-year quarter

•Adjusted OIBDA increased 31% to $397 million versus $303 million in the prior-year quarter, or 24% in constant currency

•Earnings per share was $0.35 compared to $0.07 in the prior-year quarter

•Adjusted earnings per share was $0.44 compared to $0.32 in the prior-year quarter

•Cash provided by operating activities increased to $126 million versus $69 million in the prior-year quarter

NEW YORK, New York, May 7, 2026—Warner Music Group Corp. today announced its second-quarter financial results for the period ended March 31, 2026.

“Our Q2 results demonstrate the powerful combination of creative and operational success, as well as financial discipline, providing clear evidence that our strategic transformation is working,” said Robert Kyncl, CEO, Warner Music Group. “Anchored by our 3 strategic pillars to grow share, increase the value of music, and improve efficiency and effectiveness, our momentum is building and we are well-positioned to continue delivering long-term value for our artists, songwriters, and shareholders.”

"For the fourth consecutive quarter, we have delivered on our sustainable growth model, accelerating core growth, margin expansion, and cash flow productivity," said Armin Zerza, CFO, Warner Music Group. "Behind a profitable growth engine that pairs disciplined capital allocation and rigorous cost management with industry-leading creative and AI initiatives, we are well-positioned to create significant long-term value for our shareholders.”

1

Total WMG

Total WMG Summary Results

(dollars in millions)

For the Three Months Ended March 31, 2026For the Three Months Ended March 31, 2025% ChangeFor the Six Months Ended March 31, 2026For the Six Months Ended March 31, 2025% Change

(unaudited)(unaudited)(unaudited)(unaudited)

Revenue$1,732 $1,484 17 %$3,572 $3,150 13 %

Recorded Music revenue1,380 1,175 17 %2,860 2,520 13 %

Music Publishing revenue353 310 14 %715 633 13 %

Operating income264 168 57 %552 382 45 %

Adjusted OIBDA(1) 397 303 31 %860 666 29 %

Net income181 36 — %356 277 29 %

Net cash provided by operating activities126 69 83 %566 401 41 %

Free Cash Flow99 33 — %519 329 58 %

(1) See "Supplemental Disclosures Regarding Non-GAAP Financial Measures" at the end of this release for details regarding this measure.

Revenue was up 16.7% (or 12.1% in constant currency). Recorded Music revenue comparisons were impacted by a digital revenue settlement of $11 million in the prior-year quarter (the “DSP True-Up and Settlement Payments”). Consistent with prior quarters, Recorded Music revenue growth was also unfavorably impacted by the termination of the distribution agreement with BMG (the “BMG Termination”), which resulted in $6 million less Recorded Music digital revenue compared to the prior-year quarter. Excluding these items, total revenue increased 18.1% (or 13.4% in constant currency).

Digital revenue was up 16.7% (or 12.3% in constant currency) and streaming revenue was up 17.1% (or 12.9% in constant currency). Recorded Music streaming revenue increased 16.5% (or 12.1% in constant currency); however, adjusted for the $11 million impact of the DSP True-Up and Settlement Payments and the $6 million impact of the BMG Termination, Recorded Music streaming revenue was up 18.9% (or 14.4% in constant currency). Music Publishing streaming revenue increased 20.0% (or 16.2% in constant currency). The increase in total revenue was also driven by higher Recorded Music artist services and expanded-rights and physical revenue, and growth across Music Publishing performance, synchronization and mechanical revenue, partially offset by slightly lower Recorded Music licensing revenue.

Operating income increased 57.1% (or 45.1% in constant currency) to $264 million from $168 million in the prior-year quarter primarily due to the factors affecting Adjusted OIBDA discussed below, as well as a decrease in restructuring and impairment charges of $7 million, partially offset by higher amortization expense of $10 million.

Adjusted OIBDA increased 31.0% (or 24.5% in constant

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Feb 5, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-0.73%

$27.98

Act: +3.05%

5D

-2.53%

$27.48

Act: +1.28%

20D

-5.84%

$26.54

Act: -0.82%

Price: $28.19 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001319161-26-000007

wmg-20260205false000131916100013191612026-02-052026-02-05

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): February 5, 2026

Warner Music Group Corp. (Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter)

Delaware (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation) 001-32502 (Commission File Number) 13-4271875 (I.R.S. Employer Identification No.)

1633 Broadway, New York, NY (Address of principal executive offices) 10019 (Zip Code)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (212) 275-2000


Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

☐Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class Trading Symbol(s) Name of each exchange on which registered Class A Common Stock, $0.001 par value per share WMG The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

ITEM 2.02. RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION.

On February 5, 2026, Warner Music Group Corp. (“the Company”) issued an earnings release announcing its results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference to such filing.

ITEM 8.01. OTHER EVENTS.

On February 5, 2026, the Company also announced in the earnings release furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto that its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.19 per share on the Company’s Class A Common Stock and Class B Common Stock. The dividend is payable on March 3, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on February 18, 2026.

ITEM 9.01. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND EXHIBITS.

(d) Exhibits.

Exhibit No.Description 99.1Earnings release issued by Warner Music Group Corp. on February 5, 2026.

104Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

WARNER MUSIC GROUP CORP.

Date: February 5, 2026By:  /s/ Armin Zerza Armin Zerza Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

2025
Q3

Q3 2025 Earnings

8-K

Nov 20, 2025

0001319161-25-000032

wmg-20251120false000131916100013191612025-11-202025-11-20

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): November 20, 2025

Warner Music Group Corp. (Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter)

Delaware (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation) 001-32502 (Commission File Number) 13-4271875 (I.R.S. Employer Identification No.)

1633 Broadway, New York, NY (Address of principal executive offices) 10019 (Zip Code)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (212) 275-2000


Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

☐Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class Trading Symbol(s) Name of each exchange on which registered Class A Common Stock, $0.001 par value per share WMG The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

ITEM 2.02. RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION.

On November 20, 2025, Warner Music Group Corp. issued an earnings release announcing its results for the quarter and fiscal year ended September 30, 2025, which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference to such filing.

ITEM 9.01. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND EXHIBITS.

(d) Exhibits.

Exhibit No. Description 99.1  Earnings release issued by Warner Music Group Corp. on November 20, 2025

104Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

WARNER MUSIC GROUP CORP.

Date: November 20, 2025By:  /s/ Armin Zerza Armin Zerza Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

About Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) Earnings

This page provides Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on WMG's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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