1. Home
  2. VEL
  3. Earnings

AI Earnings Predictions for Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-1.77%

$17.38

2% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-3.69%

$17.04

2% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-0.49%

$17.60

2% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $17.69 Confidence: 95.2% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q2 2026 SELL -1.77% -3.69% -0.49% 95.2% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL -1.02% -2.53% +1.23% 100.0% -11.29%
Q4 2025 BUY -0.68% +5.39% +2.78% 100.0% Pending
Q4 2025 BUY -0.61% +5.94% +4.07% 100.0% +0.44%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Aug 5, 2026 · 95% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-1.77%

$17.38

Act: +2.94%

5D

-3.69%

$17.04

20D

-0.49%

$17.60

Price: $17.69 Prob +5D: 2% AUC: 1.000
0001193125-26-334991

EX-99.1

2 vel-ex99_1.htm

EX-99.1

EX-99.1

Exhibit 99.1

Velocity Financial, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results

Second Quarter Highlights

Financial Results

• Pretax income of $35.2 million, an increase of 3.9% from $33.9 million for 2Q25. Net income of $25.2 million, a decrease of 3.2% from $26.0 million for 2Q25, mainly due to an increase in the effective tax rate in 2026. Diluted EPS of $0.64, a decrease of $0.05 from $0.69 per share for 2Q25

• Core net income of $27.9 million, an increase of 1.4% from $27.5 million for 2Q25. Core diluted EPS of $0.71, a decrease from $0.73 per share for 2Q251

• Diluted book value per common share of $18.43, an increase of $2.81 from $15.62 as of June 30, 2025

• Portfolio net interest margin (NIM) of 3.66%, a decrease of 16 bps from 3.82% for 2Q25

➢ 2Q25 NIM included higher levels of nonperforming loan cash receipts

➢ Consistently strong NIM levels have resulted from rate discipline on new loan production, with average loan coupons of 10.06% on loans produced over the last five quarters

Portfolio

• Loan production of $672.6 million decreased from $725.4 million in 2Q25

➢ Total unit production increased 3.3% year over year, offset by a lower average loan balance of $399 thousand compared to $445 thousand in 2Q25

• Nonperforming loans (NPL) as a percentage of Held for Investment (HFI) loans was 9.6%, a decrease from 10.3% as of June 30, 2025

• NPL resolutions totaled $90.5 million in UPB

➢ Net gains of 102.7% or $2.5 million

➢ Total NPL recoveries of 107.7% or $6.9 million of UPB resolved including accrued interest received

Liquidity and Capitalization

• Completed VCC 2026-2 securitization with $398.5 million of securities issued

• Completed VCC 2026-MC2 securitization generating net proceeds of $11.2 million

• Liquidity of $240.0 million, consisting of $76.1 million in unrestricted cash and $163.9 million in available borrowings from unpledged loans. $50.3 million in restricted cash was released in July 2026.

• Total available warehouse line capacity of $661.8 million

1 Core net income and core diluted EPS are non-GAAP financial measures. Non-GAAP core adjustments include stock-based compensation expenses, costs related to the Company’s employee stock purchase plan and due diligence and advisory fees. See “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” and “Non-GAAP Financial Measure Reconciliations to GAAP Measures” at the end of this press release for more information regarding the use of non-GAAP measures.

1

Westlake Village, CA – August 5, 2026 – Velocity Financial, Inc. (NYSE: VEL) (Velocity or the Company), a leader in business purpose loans, reported net income of $25.2 million and core net income of $27.9 million for 2Q26, compared to $26.0 million and $27.5 million, respectively, for 2Q25. Earnings and core earnings per diluted share were $0.64 and $0.71 for 2Q26, compared to $0.69 and $0.73, respectively, for 2Q25.

“Velocity continued to deliver impressive earnings in the second quarter of 2026” said Chris Farrar, President and CEO. “Velocity's second quarter 2026 results were driven by higher portfolio net interest income and noninterest income from our growing portfolio and new production volume. Financing demand remained strong during the quarter, in both the traditional commercial and 1-4 family residential rental property markets, as investors continued to see considerable value in smaller commercial properties. We remain confident in Velocity’s long-term growth prospects and our ability to sustain profitable market share growth.”

Operating Results

Key Performance Indicators2

Three Months Ended June 30,

2026

2025

$ Variance

% Variance

($ in thousands, except per share amounts)

Income before income tax

$

35,235

$

33,922

$

1,313

3.9

%

Net income

$

25,163

$

25,997

$

(834

)

(3.2

)%

Diluted earnings per share

$

0.64

$

0.69

$

(0.05

)

(7.2

)%

Core income before income tax

$

38,415

$

35,777

$

2,638

7.4

%

Core net income

$

27,853

$

27,470

$

383

1.4

%

Core diluted earnings per share

$

0.71

$

0.73

$

(0.02

)

(2.9

)%

Net interest margin — portfolio related

3.66

%

(1)

3.82

%

(1)

(0.17

)%

(4.4

)%

Net interest margin — total company

2.82

%

(1)

3.39

%

(1)

(0.57

)%

(16.7

)%

Operating expense ratio

28.7

%

29.6

%

(0.9

)%

(3.0

)%

Average common equity

$

704,138

$

588,814

$

115,324

19.6

%

Pre-tax return on average equity

20.0

%

(1)

23.0

%

(1)

(3.0

)%

(13.1

)%

Core pre-tax return on average equity

21.8

%

(1)

24.3

%

(1)

(2.5

)%

(10.2

)%

(1)        Annualized

Condensed Results of Operations

Three Months Ended June 30,

2026

2025

$ Variance

% Variance

($ in thousands)

Net interest income

$

48,890

$

47,586

$

1,304

2.7

%

Provision for credit losses

980

1,598

(618

)

(38.7

)%

Net interest income after provision

47,910

45,988

1,922

4.2

%

Other operating income

47,078

39,847

7,231

18.1

%

Net revenue

94,988

85,835

9

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

May 6, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-1.02%

$19.37

Act: -6.54%

5D

-2.53%

$19.07

Act: -11.29%

20D

+1.23%

$19.81

Act: -10.83%

Price: $19.57 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001193125-26-209160

EX-99

2 d122273dex99.htm

EX-99

EX-99

Exhibit 99

Velocity Financial, Inc. Reports

First Quarter 2026 Results

First Quarter Highlights

Financial Results

Net income of $22.4 million, an increase of 18.4% from $18.9 million for 1Q25. Diluted EPS of $0.57, an increase of $0.06 from $0.51 per share for 1Q25

Driven by loan portfolio growth and strong portfolio earnings

Core net income of $26.5 million, an increase of 30.8% from $20.3 million for 1Q25. Core diluted EPS of $0.68, an increase from $0.55 per share for 1Q251

Diluted book value per common share of $17.75, an increase of 19.4% from $14.87 as of March 31, 2025

Portfolio net interest margin (NIM) of 3.56%, an increase of 21 bps from 3.35% for 1Q25

Consistently strong NIM levels have resulted from rate discipline on new loan production, with average loan coupons of 10.28% on loans produced over the last five quarters

Portfolio

Loan production of $639.4 million, flat with $640.4 million in 1Q25

Nonperforming loans (NPL) as a percentage of Held for Investment (HFI) loans was 10.1%, a decrease from 10.8% as of March 31, 2025

NPL resolutions totaled $70.1 million in UPB

Net gains of 102.3% or $1.6 million

Total NPL recoveries of 106.5% or $4.6 million of UPB resolved including accrued interest received

Liquidity and Capitalization

Completed two securitizations totaling $513.8 million

Liquidity of $329.0 million, consisting of $87.1 million in unrestricted cash and $241.9 million in available borrowings from unpledged loans

Total available warehouse line capacity of $835.6 million

1

Core net income and core diluted EPS are non-GAAP financial measures. Non-GAAP core adjustments include stock-based compensation expenses and costs related to the Company’s employee stock purchase plan. See “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” and “Non-GAAP Financial Measure Reconciliations to GAAP Measures” at the end of this press release for more information regarding the use of non-GAAP measures.

1

Westlake Village, CA – May 6, 2026 – Velocity Financial, Inc. (NYSE: VEL) (Velocity or the Company), a leader in business purpose loans, reported net income of $22.4 million and core net income of $26.5 million for 1Q26, compared to $18.9 million and $20.3 million, respectively, for 1Q25. Earnings and core earnings per diluted share were $0.57 and $0.68 for 1Q26, compared to $0.51 and $0.55, respectively, for 1Q25.

“Velocity continued to deliver impressive earnings in the first quarter of 2026” said Chris Farrar, President and CEO. “Velocity’s first quarter 2026 results were driven by higher portfolio net interest income and noninterest income from our growing portfolio and new production volume. Financing demand remained strong during the quarter, in both the traditional commercial and 1-4 family residential rental property markets, as investors continued to see considerable value in smaller commercial properties. We remain confident in Velocity’s long-term growth prospects and our ability to sustain profitable market share growth.”

Operating Results

Key Performance Indicators2

Three Months Ended March 31,

2026

2025

Variance

% Variance

($ in thousands, except per share amounts)

Income before income tax

$ 30,877

$ 26,894

$ 3,983

14.8 %

Net income

$ 22,363

$ 18,887

$ 3,476

18.4 %

Diluted earnings per share

$ 0.57

$ 0.51

$ 0.06

11.8 %

Core income before income tax

$ 36,684

$ 29,103

$ 7,581

26.0 %

Core net income

$ 26,482

$ 20,253

$ 6,229

30.8 %

Core diluted earnings per share

$ 0.68

$ 0.55

$ 0.13

23.6 %

Net interest margin — portfolio related

3.56 %(1)

3.35 %(1)

0.21 %

6.3 %

Net interest margin — total company

2.65 %(1)

2.88 %(1)

(0.23 )%

(8.0 )%

Average common equity

$ 682,417

$ 534,940

$ 147,477

27.6 %

Pre-tax return on average equity

18.1 %(1)

20.1 %(1)

(2.0 )%

(10.0 )%

Core pre-tax return on average equity

21.5 %(1)

21.8 %(1)

(0.3 )%

(1.4 )%

(1)

Percentages are annualized

Condensed Results of Operations

Three Months Ended March 31,

2026

2025

$ Variance

% Variance

(In thousands)

Net interest income

$ 43,920

$ 37,510

$ 6,410

17.1 %

Provision for credit losses

1,661

1,872

(211 )

(11.3 )%

Net interest income after provision

42,259

35,638

6,621

18.6 %

Other operating income

42,957

33,446

9,511

28.4 %

Net revenue

85,216

69,084

16,132

23.4 %

Operating expenses

54,339

42,190

12,149

28.8 %

Income before income taxes

30,877

26,894

3,983

14.8 %

Income tax expense

8,578

8,246

332

4.0 %

Net income

22,299

18,648

3,651

19.6 %

Net loss attributable to noncontrolling interest

(64 )

(239 )

175

73.2 %

Net income attributable to Velocity Financial, Inc.

$ 22,363

$ 18,887

$ 3,476

18.4 %

2

Core income before income tax, core net income, core diluted EPS and core pre-tax return on average equity are non-GAAP measures. Please see “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” and “Non-GAAP Financial Measure Reconciliations to GAAP Measu

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K BUY

Mar 13, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

-0.61%

$20.29

Act: -1.27%

5D

+5.94%

$21.62

Act: +0.44%

20D

+4.07%

$21.24

Act: -8.82%

Price: $20.41 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001193125-26-104483

8-K

false 0001692376 0001692376 2026-03-11 2026-03-11

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): March 11, 2026

Velocity Financial, Inc. (Exact name of Registrant as Specified in Its Charter)

Delaware

001-39183

46-0659719

(State or Other Jurisdiction of Incorporation)

(Commission File Number)

(IRS Employer Identification No.)

2945 Townsgate Road, Suite 110

Westlake Village, California

91361

(Address of Principal Executive Offices)

(Zip Code) Registrant’s Telephone Number, Including Area Code: (818) 532-3700 Not Applicable (Former Name or Former Address, if Changed Since Last Report)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class

Trading Symbol(s)

Name of each exchange on which registered

Common stock, par value $0.01 per share

VEL

The New York Stock Exchange

Indicate by check mark

Common stock, par value $0.01 per share

VEL

NYSE Texas, Inc. Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§ 230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§ 240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 11, 2026 we issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information provided in Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99, is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Item 9.01 Exhibits.

Exhibit Number

Description

99

Press Release dated March 11, 2026

104

Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document).

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.

Velocity Financial, Inc.

Date: March 12, 2026

By:

/s/ Roland T. Kelly

Roland T. Kelly

Chief Legal Officer and General Counsel

About Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) Earnings

This page provides Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on VEL's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Share on Social Networks: