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AI Earnings Predictions for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+5.51%

$68.93

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+9.14%

$71.30

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+16.57%

$76.16

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $65.33 Confidence: 99.7% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q2 2026 BUY +5.51% +9.14% +16.57% 99.7% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL -3.11% -6.93% -12.91% 99.9% -0.20%
Q4 2025 SELL -3.11% -6.93% -12.91% 99.8% +11.27%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Aug 6, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+5.51%

$68.93

Act: -0.83%

5D

+9.14%

$71.30

20D

+16.57%

$76.16

Price: $65.33 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001819790-26-000063

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2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

May 6, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-3.11%

$62.77

Act: -1.28%

5D

-6.93%

$60.30

Act: -0.20%

20D

-12.91%

$56.42

Act: -6.87%

Price: $64.79 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001819790-26-000037

EX-99.1

2 exhibit991tarsus562026.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Tarsus Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Recent Business Achievements

Generated first quarter XDEMVY® net product sales of more than $145 million, an increase of more than 85% year-over-year

Reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of $670-700 million of XDEMVY net product sales and peak sales potential exceeding $2 billion

Nearly half of core eye care professionals are prescribing XDEMVY weekly, driven by deeper utilization, increased patient demand through Direct-to-Consumer campaign, and ongoing evidence generation

Initiated Calliope, a Phase 2 trial of TP-05, a novel investigational oral tablet for the potential prevention of Lyme disease, with topline data expected in the first half of 2027

Management to host conference call today, May 6, 2026, at 1:30 p.m. PT / 4:30 p.m. ET

IRVINE, Calif., May 6, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: TARS), today announced financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026.

“XDEMVY is driving a fundamental shift in how Demodex blepharitis is diagnosed and treated,” said Bobak Azamian, M.D., Ph.D., Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of Tarsus. “As we look across the business, every key signal is gaining momentum, and we are seeing the market expand as a result – reinforcing XDEMVY’s expected growth trajectory toward potential peak sales exceeding $2 billion. Equally as exciting, XDEMVY validates a repeatable playbook for category creation. We are now scaling that approach across our pipeline, with several catalysts ahead that we believe will drive the next phase of growth and establish new standards of care.”

Recent Business and Clinical Highlights

•XDEMVY continues to be one of the best-selling prescription eye drops.

◦Net product sales were $145.4 million for the first quarter, a year-over-year increase of more than 85%.

◦Continued depth of prescribing as eye care professionals (ECPs) broaden screening and treatment across a wider range of patients.

•Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) campaign drove tremendous engagement and generated an increasingly positive and growing return on investment.

◦Continued to drive millions of visitors to XDEMVY.com and increased high-value actions on the website by approximately 40% quarter-over-quarter reflecting strong patient activation and conversion.

•On track to activate approximately 20 new Key Account Leaders by Q3 2026 focusing on driving deeper utilization within high-opportunity eye care practices.

•Tarsus maintained strong engagement across key ophthalmology and optometry conferences in the first quarter, presenting numerous data sets that reinforce the clinical importance of diagnosing and treating Demodex blepharitis (DB) and expand how ECPs identify and treat DB.

•Tarsus continues to execute on its robust pipeline of category-creating potential therapeutics.

◦Initiated Calliope, a Phase 2 trial evaluating TP-05, a novel investigational lotilaner-based oral prophylactic designed to kill ticks before potential disease transmission. Topline data is expected in the first half of 2027, with the potential to support a Phase 3-ready package.

◦The Phase 2 trial evaluating TP-04, a lotilaner-based sterile ophthalmic gel formulation for the potential treatment of ocular rosacea, continues to progress, with topline data expected in the first half of 2027.

•TP-03 (XDEMVY) for the treatment of Demodex blepharitis expanded globally.

◦Our out-license partner in Greater China, Grand Pharmaceuticals Group Ltd., achieved regulatory approval in the People’s Republic of China, triggering a $15 million milestone payment to Tarsus.

◦In Europe, we remain on track to complete stability work of a preservative-free formulation in 2026 and continue to evaluate a potential path to approval.

◦Ongoing discussions continue with regulatory authorities in Japan on a potential path to approval.

First Quarter 2026 Financial Results

•    Product sales, net: were $145.4 million compared to $78.3 million for the same period in 2025, driven by higher volume and improvements in the gross-to-net discount.

•    License fees and collaboration revenue: were $16.7 million related to a $15.0 million regulatory milestone achieved under the China Out-License and $1.7 million of required China withholding tax associated with this milestone. The milestone payment was recorded on a gross basis, which increased license fees and collaboration revenue by $1.7 million, with an equal offsetting amount recorded as foreign tax expense within provision for income taxes. There were no license fees and collaboration revenue in the same period in 2025.

•    Cost of sales: were $9.4 million compared to $5.2 million for the same period in 2025, due to manufacturing costs related to XDEMVY, the royalty Tarsus pays on net product sales, and amortization expense for the milestone payments made to our licensor, which is being amortized over its remaining useful life. Gros

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Feb 23, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-3.11%

$67.43

Act: +7.79%

5D

-6.93%

$64.77

Act: +11.27%

20D

-12.91%

$60.61

Price: $69.59 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001819790-26-000017

tars-202602230001819790FALSE00018197902026-02-232026-02-23

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549


FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 OR 15(d) of The Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (date of earliest event reported): February 23, 2026


TARSUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)


Delaware001-39614 81-4717861 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization)(Commission File Number)(I.R.S. Employer Identification No.)

15440 Laguna Canyon Road, Suite 160 Irvine, CA 92618 (Address of principal executive offices, including Zip Code) Registrant's telephone number, including area code: (949) 418-1801 Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each classTrading Symbol(s)Name of each exchange on which registered Common Stock, $0.0001 par value per shareTARSThe Nasdaq Global Market LLC (Nasdaq Global Select Market)

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On February 23, 2026, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release, which, among other matters, sets forth the Company’s results of operations for the year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.

The foregoing information, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished under Item 2.02 and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d) Exhibits.

Exhibit No. Description

99.1 Press Release dated February 23, 2026

104Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within XBRL document)

SIGNATURE

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

Date: February 23, 2026By: /s/ Jeffrey S. Farrow

Jeffrey S. Farrow

Chief Financial Officer and Chief Strategy Officer

(Principal Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer)

About Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) Earnings

This page provides Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on TARS's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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