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AI Earnings Predictions for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-2.88%

$69.41

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-6.09%

$67.12

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-12.16%

$62.78

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $71.47 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q3 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q3 2026 SELL -2.88% -6.09% -12.16% 100.0% Pending
Q2 2026 BUY +5.51% +9.14% +16.57% 99.7% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL -3.11% -6.93% -12.91% 99.9% -0.20%
Q4 2025 SELL -3.11% -6.93% -12.91% 99.8% +11.27%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q3

Q3 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Nov 3, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-2.88%

$69.41

Act: -4.91%

5D

-6.09%

$67.12

20D

-12.16%

$62.78

Price: $71.47 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001819790-26-000074

EX-99.1

2 exhibit991tarsus1132026.htm

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Document

Tarsus Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results

Generated record XDEMVY® net product sales of $194.6 million in the third quarter, an increase of approximately 64% year-over-year

Surpassed one million XDEMVY bottles dispensed and $1 billion in cumulative net product sales since launch

Appointed Neera Clase as Chief Commercial Officer

Management to host conference call today, November 3, 2026, at 1:30 p.m. PT / 4:30 p.m. ET

IRVINE, Calif., November 3, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: TARS) today announced financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026.

“Ten years ago, we started Tarsus with the conviction that patients with overlooked diseases deserved better,” said Bobby Azamian, M.D., Ph.D., Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of Tarsus. “XDEMVY has shown what that focus can achieve. In just three years since launch, we have dispensed more than one million bottles and generated $1 billion in cumulative net product sales, and with continued robust growth, we are only getting started. That strength is helping us build one of the most differentiated pipelines in eye care, with the potential to bring five medicines to patients in the next five years. As we become the next leader in eye care, what drives us is the patient still searching for a better treatment and the possibility that our next medicine can provide it.”

Recent Business and Clinical Highlights

•XDEMVY generated third quarter 2026 net product sales of $194.6 million, a year-over-year increase of approximately 64%.

◦Since launch, more than one million bottles of XDEMVY have been dispensed and cumulative net product sales have surpassed $1 billion, as the first and only FDA-approved treatment for Demodex blepharitis (DB) reaches more patients.

◦The average number of Eye Care Professionals (ECPs) prescribing XDEMVY at least daily increased approximately 20% from the beginning to the end of the third quarter, amidst a seasonally softer quarter in prescription eye care.

◦Direct-to-consumer initiatives drove a 75% increase in high-value actions and we saw a higher prescription conversion than last year.

◦Retreatment continued to become a more established part of care, with refills accounting for approximately 20% of XDEMVY prescriptions in the third quarter.

•Presented 11 scientific abstracts at the American Academy of Optometry, adding to the real-world evidence for XDEMVY and understanding of Demodex blepharitis. Key findings included:

◦Retreatment experience: Among ECPs with retreatment experience, 98% were satisfied with XDEMVY’s efficacy and tolerability.

◦Disease recognition: DB was found in 65% of patients presenting with chalazia or hordeola, rising to 91% among those with recurrent cases, reinforcing the importance of checking for DB in routine eye care.

◦Longer-term outcomes: In an ongoing real-world observational study, 73% of XDEMVY-treated patients reported improvement in itchy eyelids, a key symptom of DB, at nine months, compared with 29% of patients receiving non-lotilaner options.

•Tarsus continues to advance one of the most compelling pipelines in eye care, with multiple upcoming clinical milestones.

◦TP-04: The Phase 2 Kore trial for the potential treatment of ocular rosacea continues to progress, with topline data expected in the first half of 2027.

◦TP-05: Completed enrollment in the Phase 2 Calliope trial for the potential prevention of Lyme disease. Topline results are expected in the first half of 2027 and are anticipated to support a Phase 3-ready package.

◦IRX-101: Plan to initiate the Phase 3 Comfort study evaluating an investigational ocular antiseptic for patients receiving intravitreal injections in the first half of 2027, with topline results expected in 2028.

◦Gildeuretinol: Enrollment continues to progress in the global Phase 3 Northstar trial for the potential treatment of Stargardt disease, with topline results expected in 2029.

•Completed the acquisitions of iRenix Medical (IRX-101) and Alkeus Pharmaceuticals (Gildeuretinol).

◦IRX-101 is an investigational ocular antiseptic with the potential to improve the standard of care by reducing post-procedural pain and corneal toxicity in patients receiving intravitreal injections.

◦Gildeuretinol is an investigational once-daily oral medicine designed to target the underlying biology of Stargardt disease, a potentially blinding inherited retinal disease with no FDA-approved treatment.

•Appointed Neera Clase as Chief Commercial Officer

◦Ms. Clase has been instrumental in creating a new market for XDEMVY, building our commercial team, and securing broad coverage.

Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results

•    Product sales, net: were $194.6 million compared to $118.7 million for the same period in 2025, driven by higher volume and improvements in the gross-to-net discounts.

•    Cost of sales: were $13.9 million compared to $8.3 million for the sa

2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Aug 6, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+5.51%

$68.93

Act: -0.83%

5D

+9.14%

$71.30

20D

+16.57%

$76.16

Price: $65.33 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001819790-26-000063

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2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

May 6, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-3.11%

$62.77

Act: -1.28%

5D

-6.93%

$60.30

Act: -0.20%

20D

-12.91%

$56.42

Act: -6.87%

Price: $64.79 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001819790-26-000037

EX-99.1

2 exhibit991tarsus562026.htm

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Document

Tarsus Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Recent Business Achievements

Generated first quarter XDEMVY® net product sales of more than $145 million, an increase of more than 85% year-over-year

Reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of $670-700 million of XDEMVY net product sales and peak sales potential exceeding $2 billion

Nearly half of core eye care professionals are prescribing XDEMVY weekly, driven by deeper utilization, increased patient demand through Direct-to-Consumer campaign, and ongoing evidence generation

Initiated Calliope, a Phase 2 trial of TP-05, a novel investigational oral tablet for the potential prevention of Lyme disease, with topline data expected in the first half of 2027

Management to host conference call today, May 6, 2026, at 1:30 p.m. PT / 4:30 p.m. ET

IRVINE, Calif., May 6, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: TARS), today announced financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026.

“XDEMVY is driving a fundamental shift in how Demodex blepharitis is diagnosed and treated,” said Bobak Azamian, M.D., Ph.D., Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of Tarsus. “As we look across the business, every key signal is gaining momentum, and we are seeing the market expand as a result – reinforcing XDEMVY’s expected growth trajectory toward potential peak sales exceeding $2 billion. Equally as exciting, XDEMVY validates a repeatable playbook for category creation. We are now scaling that approach across our pipeline, with several catalysts ahead that we believe will drive the next phase of growth and establish new standards of care.”

Recent Business and Clinical Highlights

•XDEMVY continues to be one of the best-selling prescription eye drops.

◦Net product sales were $145.4 million for the first quarter, a year-over-year increase of more than 85%.

◦Continued depth of prescribing as eye care professionals (ECPs) broaden screening and treatment across a wider range of patients.

•Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) campaign drove tremendous engagement and generated an increasingly positive and growing return on investment.

◦Continued to drive millions of visitors to XDEMVY.com and increased high-value actions on the website by approximately 40% quarter-over-quarter reflecting strong patient activation and conversion.

•On track to activate approximately 20 new Key Account Leaders by Q3 2026 focusing on driving deeper utilization within high-opportunity eye care practices.

•Tarsus maintained strong engagement across key ophthalmology and optometry conferences in the first quarter, presenting numerous data sets that reinforce the clinical importance of diagnosing and treating Demodex blepharitis (DB) and expand how ECPs identify and treat DB.

•Tarsus continues to execute on its robust pipeline of category-creating potential therapeutics.

◦Initiated Calliope, a Phase 2 trial evaluating TP-05, a novel investigational lotilaner-based oral prophylactic designed to kill ticks before potential disease transmission. Topline data is expected in the first half of 2027, with the potential to support a Phase 3-ready package.

◦The Phase 2 trial evaluating TP-04, a lotilaner-based sterile ophthalmic gel formulation for the potential treatment of ocular rosacea, continues to progress, with topline data expected in the first half of 2027.

•TP-03 (XDEMVY) for the treatment of Demodex blepharitis expanded globally.

◦Our out-license partner in Greater China, Grand Pharmaceuticals Group Ltd., achieved regulatory approval in the People’s Republic of China, triggering a $15 million milestone payment to Tarsus.

◦In Europe, we remain on track to complete stability work of a preservative-free formulation in 2026 and continue to evaluate a potential path to approval.

◦Ongoing discussions continue with regulatory authorities in Japan on a potential path to approval.

First Quarter 2026 Financial Results

•    Product sales, net: were $145.4 million compared to $78.3 million for the same period in 2025, driven by higher volume and improvements in the gross-to-net discount.

•    License fees and collaboration revenue: were $16.7 million related to a $15.0 million regulatory milestone achieved under the China Out-License and $1.7 million of required China withholding tax associated with this milestone. The milestone payment was recorded on a gross basis, which increased license fees and collaboration revenue by $1.7 million, with an equal offsetting amount recorded as foreign tax expense within provision for income taxes. There were no license fees and collaboration revenue in the same period in 2025.

•    Cost of sales: were $9.4 million compared to $5.2 million for the same period in 2025, due to manufacturing costs related to XDEMVY, the royalty Tarsus pays on net product sales, and amortization expense for the milestone payments made to our licensor, which is being amortized over its remaining useful life. Gros

About Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) Earnings

This page provides Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on TARS's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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