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AI Earnings Predictions for RLI Corp. (DE) (RLI)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-3.37%

$57.00

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-5.70%

$55.63

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-1.43%

$58.14

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $58.99 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q2 2026 SELL -3.37% -5.70% -1.43% 100.0% +11.29%
Q1 2026 SELL -3.29% -4.75% -0.15% 100.0% -10.44%
Q4 2025 SELL -3.34% -5.06% -0.93% 100.0% -3.52%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Jul 22, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-3.37%

$57.00

Act: +3.68%

5D

-5.70%

$55.63

Act: +11.29%

20D

-1.43%

$58.14

Price: $58.99 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001104659-26-085815

EX-99.1

2 rli-20260722xex99d1.htm

EX-99.1

EXHIBIT 99.1

RLI REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS

PEORIA, ILLINOIS, July 22, 2026 – RLI Corp. (NYSE: RLI) – RLI Corp. reported second quarter 2026 net earnings of $168.0 million ($1.82 per share), compared to $124.3 million ($1.34 per share) for the second quarter of 2025. Operating earnings(1) for the second quarter of 2026 were $76.9 million ($0.83 per share), compared to $76.2 million ($0.82 per share) for the same period in 2025.

Second Quarter

Year to Date

Earnings Per Diluted Share

2026

2025

2026

2025

Net earnings

$

1.82

$

1.34

$

2.42

$

2.03

Operating earnings (1)(2)

$

0.83

$

0.82

$

1.67

$

1.71

(1)See discussion below: Non-GAAP and Performance Measures.

(2)Equity in earnings of unconsolidated investees and the related taxes were removed from operating earnings and operating earnings per share beginning in the fourth quarter of 2025, resulting in consistent exclusion of unrealized changes in equity investments from operating results. Prior period amounts have been recast to conform to the current definition.

Highlights for the quarter included:

●Underwriting income(1) of $59.9 million on a combined ratio(1) of 85.6.

●Net investment income increased 17%, and gross premiums written increased 3%.

●Favorable development in prior years’ loss reserves resulted in a $35.1 million net increase in underwriting income.

●Book value per share of $19.09, an increase of 11% (inclusive of dividends and share repurchases) from year-end 2025.

●Authorized a $250.0 million share repurchase program and repurchased $12.0 million of common stock.

●Paid a special dividend of $2.00 per share, returning $184.0 million to shareholders.

“We are pleased to report another quarter of premium growth and profitability,” said RLI Corp. President & CEO Craig Kliethermes. “Gross premiums written increased 3%, driven by our casualty segment, while strong margins in our property and surety segments contributed to an 86 combined ratio. Net investment income increased 17%, complementing our underwriting results and contributing to an 11% increase in book value per share since year-end 2025, including dividends returned to shareholders. These results reflect our disciplined execution and continued focus on delivering specialized expertise and exceptional service to our customers.”

Underwriting Income

RLI achieved $59.9 million of underwriting income in the second quarter of 2026 on an 85.6 combined ratio, compared to $62.2 million on an 84.5 combined ratio in 2025.

Results for both years include favorable development in prior years’ loss reserves, which resulted in a $35.1 million and $24.4 million net increase to underwriting income in 2026 and 2025, respectively.

The following table highlights underwriting income and combined ratios by segment for the second quarter.

Underwriting Income(1)

Combined Ratio(1)

(in millions)

2026

2025

2026

2025

Casualty

$

1.7

$

8.3

Casualty

99.3

96.5

Property

53.5

49.5

Property

56.8

62.1

Surety

4.7

4.4

Surety

87.2

87.9

Total

$

59.9

$

62.2

Total

85.6

84.5

(1)See discussion below: Non-GAAP and Performance Measures.

Other Income

Net investment income for the quarter increased 17% to $46.0 million, compared to the same period in 2025. The investment portfolio’s total return was 3.4% for the quarter and 3.0% for the six months ended June 30, 2026.

RLI’s comprehensive earnings were $165.7 million for the quarter ($1.80 per share), compared to $143.0 million ($1.55 per share) for the same quarter in 2025. In addition to net earnings, comprehensive earnings for 2026 included after-tax unrealized losses from the fixed income portfolio, due to rising interest rates.

Dividends and Share Repurchase Program

On June 12, 2026, the company paid a special cash dividend of $2.00 per share and a regular quarterly dividend of $0.18 per share, a 12.5% increase over the prior quarter.

On May 14, 2026, the company’s Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to $250.0 million of the company’s outstanding common stock. During the second quarter, RLI repurchased 234,973 shares at an average price of $51.25 per share for a total cost of $12.0 million. As of June 30, 2026, $238.0 million of remaining capacity was available under the share repurchase program. Over the past five years, RLI has returned more than $1.3 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

Non-GAAP and Performance Measures

Management has included certain non-generally accepted accounting principles (non-GAAP) financial measures in presenting the company’s results. Management believes that these non-GAAP measures further explain the company’s results of operations and allo

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Apr 22, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-3.29%

$55.23

Act: -3.80%

5D

-4.75%

$54.40

Act: -10.44%

20D

-0.15%

$57.02

Act: -7.83%

Price: $57.11 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001104659-26-046821

EX-99.1

2 rli-20260422xex99d1.htm

EX-99.1

EXHIBIT 99.1

RLI REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS

PEORIA, ILLINOIS, April 22, 2026 – RLI Corp. (NYSE: RLI) – RLI Corp. reported first quarter 2026 net earnings of $54.9 million ($0.60 per share), compared to $63.2 million ($0.68 per share) for the first quarter of 2025. Operating earnings(1) for the first quarter of 2026 were $76.8 million ($0.83 per share), compared to $82.5 million ($0.89 per share) for the same period in 2025.

First Quarter

Earnings Per Diluted Share

2026

2025

Net earnings

$

0.60

$

0.68

Operating earnings (1)(2)

$

0.83

$

0.89

(1)See discussion below: Non-GAAP and Performance Measures.

(2)Equity in earnings of unconsolidated investees and the related taxes were removed from operating earnings and operating earnings per share, resulting in consistent exclusion of unrealized changes in equity investments from operating results. Prior period amounts have been recast to conform to the current definition.

Highlights for the quarter included:

●Underwriting income(1) of $57.8 million on a combined ratio(1) of 86.0.

●Net investment income increased 15%, while gross premiums written increased 3%.

●Favorable development in prior years’ loss reserves resulted in a $31.3 million net increase in underwriting income.

●Book value per share of $19.54, an increase of 2% (inclusive of dividends) from year-end 2025.

"We entered 2026 with positive underwriting results, delivering an 86 combined ratio across our diversified specialty portfolio,” said RLI Corp. President & CEO Craig Kliethermes. “Our core performance remained solid to start the year. Gross premiums written grew 3%, led by our casualty segment, and net investment income increased 15%, contributing meaningfully to quarterly results and reflecting the continued strength of our investment portfolio.”

“In a dynamic market, we remain focused on disciplined underwriting, rate adequacy and strategically deploying capital to take advantage of opportunities and reward our shareholders.”

Underwriting Income

RLI achieved $57.8 million of underwriting income in the first quarter of 2026 on an 86.0 combined ratio, compared to $70.5 million on an 82.3 combined ratio in 2025.

Results for both years include favorable development in prior years’ loss reserves, which resulted in a $31.3 million and $27.4 million net increase to underwriting income in 2026 and 2025, respectively.

The following table highlights underwriting income and combined ratios by segment for the first quarter.

Underwriting Income(1)

Combined Ratio(1)

(in millions)

2026

2025

2026

2025

Casualty

$

7.3

$

2.1

Casualty

97.1

99.1

Property

48.2

56.9

Property

61.9

57.1

Surety

2.3

11.5

Surety

93.7

68.5

Total

$

57.8

$

70.5

Total

86.0

82.3

(1)See discussion below: Non-GAAP and Performance Measures.

Other Income

Net investment income for the quarter increased 15% to $42.3 million, compared to the same period in 2025. The investment portfolio’s total return was -0.4% for the quarter.

RLI’s comprehensive earnings were $29.5 million for the quarter ($0.32 per share), compared to $93.2 million ($1.01 per share) for the same quarter in 2025. In addition to net earnings, comprehensive earnings for 2026 included after-tax unrealized losses from the fixed income portfolio, due to rising interest rates.

Dividends Paid in First Quarter of 2026

On March 16, 2026, the company paid a regular quarterly dividend of $0.16 per share, the same amount as the prior quarter. RLI’s cumulative dividends total more than $1.1 billion paid over the last five years.

Non-GAAP and Performance Measures

Management has included certain non-generally accepted accounting principles (non-GAAP) financial measures in presenting the company’s results. Management believes that these non-GAAP measures further explain the company’s results of operations and allow for a more complete understanding of the underlying trends in the company’s business. These measures should not be viewed as a substitute for those determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). In addition, our definitions of these items may not be comparable to the definitions used by other companies.

Operating earnings and operating earnings per share (EPS) consist of our GAAP net earnings adjusted by net realized gains/(losses), net unrealized gains/(losses) on equity securities and taxes related thereto. Equity in earnings of unconsolidated investees and the related taxes were excluded from operating earnings and operating EPS beginning in the fourth quarter of 2025. The change was made to present a consistent approach in excluding all unrealized changes in equity investments. Operating earnings and operating EPS for prior periods have

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Jan 21, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-3.34%

$57.09

Act: -3.06%

5D

-5.06%

$56.07

Act: -3.52%

20D

-0.93%

$58.51

Act: +2.96%

Price: $59.06 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001104659-26-005370

RLI Corp._January 21, 2026 0000084246false00000842462026-01-212026-01-21 ​ ​ ​

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of The Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): January 21, 2026

RLI Corp. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) ​ ​

Delaware ​ 001-09463 ​ 37-0889946

(State or other jurisdiction ​ (Commission ​ (IRS Employer

of incorporation) ​ File Number) ​ Identification No.)

​ ​ ​

9025 North Lindbergh Drive, Peoria, IL ​ 61615

(Address of principal executive offices) ​ (Zip Code)

​ Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (309) 692-1000 Not applicable (Former name or former address, if changed since last report.) Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions: ☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)) Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934: ​ ​

Title of each class ​ ​ ​ Trading Symbol ​ ​ ​ Name of each exchange on which registered

Common Stock $0.01 par value ​ RLI ​ New York Stock Exchange

​ Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐ ​ ​ ​ ​

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 21, 2026, RLI Corp. announced its results of operations for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. Furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference is the press release issued by RLI Corp. ​ Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits. (d) Exhibits ​ Exhibit No. ​ ​ ​ Description

​ ​ ​

99.1 ​ Press Release dated January 21, 2026. This Exhibit is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02 hereof and should not be deemed to be “filed” under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

104 ​ Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document).

​ ​ ​

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. ​ ​

RLI CORP.

​ ​ ​

Date: January 21, 2026 By: /s/ Aaron P. Diefenthaler

​ ​ Aaron P. Diefenthaler

​ Chief Financial Officer

​ ​ ​

About RLI Corp. (DE) (RLI) Earnings

This page provides RLI Corp. (DE) (RLI) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on RLI's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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