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AI Earnings Predictions for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+6.01%

$26.51

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+5.19%

$26.31

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+6.67%

$26.68

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $25.01 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q1 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q1 2026 BUY +6.01% +5.19% +6.67% 100.0% +7.32%
Q4 2025 SELL -4.64% -8.20% -3.04% 100.0% -3.32%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

May 5, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+6.01%

$26.51

Act: +3.68%

5D

+5.19%

$26.31

Act: +7.32%

20D

+6.67%

$26.68

Act: -10.40%

Price: $25.01 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001193125-26-206368

EX-99.1

2 rare-ex99_1.htm

EX-99.1

EX-99.1

Exhibit 99.1

Contacts Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.

Investors

Joshua Higa

ir@ultragenyx.com

Media Jess Rowlands media@ultragenyx.com

Ultragenyx Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Corporate Update

First quarter total revenue of $136 million,

Crysvita® revenue of $93 million and Dojolvi® revenue of $18 million

Reaffirm 2026 financial guidance, including total revenue of $730 million to $760 million and combined R&D and SG&A expenses to be flat to slightly down versus 2025; remain on path to profitability in 2027

GTX-102 for Angelman syndrome: New longer-term data from Phase 1/2 clinical study support durable and improving effects across multiple domains; Phase 3 data expected in the second half of 2026

NOVATO, Calif. – May 05, 2026 – Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ: RARE), a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of novel therapies for serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases, today reported its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and reaffirmed its financial guidance for 2026.

“This is an important year for Ultragenyx with two BLAs under review and our Angelman Phase 3 readout coming soon. We have the opportunity to meaningfully accelerate our consistent commercial revenue growth over the last few years as we prepare for two potential gene therapy approvals and launches in two urgent diseases without any approved therapies,” said Emil D. Kakkis, M.D., Ph.D., chief executive officer and president of Ultragenyx. “The latest long-term GTX-102 Phase 1/2 data further support the potential of the program, as it heads toward Phase 3 results later this year.”

First Quarter 2026 Revenue Highlights and 2026 Revenue Guidance

• Total revenue in the first quarter of 2026 was $136 million. The company reaffirms its full year 2026 total revenue guidance of $730 million to $760 million, which excludes revenue from potential new product launches.

• Crysvita revenue in the first quarter of 2026 was $93 million, consistent with expected seasonality in the U.S. and Canada and ordering patterns in Brazil. The company reaffirms its full year 2026 Crysvita revenue guidance of $500 million to $520 million.

• Dojolvi revenue in the first quarter 2026 was $18 million. The company reaffirms its full year 2026 Dojolvi revenue guidance of $100 million to $110 million.

• Evkeeza® revenue in the first quarter 2026 was $18 million, driven by increased demand from new country launches and early access.

• Mepsevii® revenue in the first quarter 2026 was $7 million.

Recent Clinical Milestones and 2026 Catalysts

• GTX-102 (apazunersen) antisense oligonucleotide (ASO) for the treatment of Angelman syndrome (AS): As of a March 2026 Phase 1/2 data cut-off date, a total of 74 patients had been treated with GTX-102, with 66 patients continuing in the long-term extension (LTE) study. Phase 1/2 patients have been on continuous treatment for an average of more than three years, with some patients now in their fifth year, generally receiving the 14 mg quarterly maintenance dose. Patients have continued to show positive improvements across multiple domains and continued to gain ground developmentally. GTX-102 has maintained a consistent safety profile, sustained over multiple years of chronic treatment, while demonstrating no new cases of transient lower extremity weakness nor any other recurring drug-related serious adverse events. These updated efficacy and safety data are planned to be presented at a future scientific meeting.

The Phase 3 Aspire study, in patients with a full maternal UBE3A gene deletion, enrolled 129 patients, randomized 1:1 to GTX-102 or sham. Data from this study are expected in the second half of 2026.

Enrollment in the open-label Phase 2/3 Aurora study, evaluating GTX-102 in other genotypes and ages, began enrollment in October 2025 and is expected to complete enrollment in the second half of 2026.

• DTX401 (pariglasgene brecaparvovec) AAV8 gene therapy for the treatment of glycogen storage disease type Ia (GSDIa): In February 2026, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) accepted for review the Biologics License Application (BLA) seeking approval of DTX401 as a treatment for GSDIa, granted the BLA Priority Review, and assigned a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) action date of August 23, 2026. The FDA also recently informed the company that an Advisory Committee meeting is not anticipated at this time.

2

• UX111 (rebisufligene etisparvovec) AAV9 gene therapy for the treatment of Sanfilippo syndrome type A (MPS IIIA): In April 2026, the FDA accepted for review the resubmitted BLA seeking accelerated approval for UX111 as a treatment for MPS IIIA. The resubmitted BLA included substantial longer-term data that were presented in February at the WORLDSymposium™ 2026 and included up to eight years of follow-up. These data demonstrated further clinical improvement relative to th

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Feb 12, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-4.64%

$22.41

Act: -12.68%

5D

-8.20%

$21.57

Act: -3.32%

20D

-3.04%

$22.79

Act: -9.32%

Price: $23.50 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001193125-26-048738

8-K

0001515673false00015156732026-02-122026-02-12

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): February 12, 2026

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (Exact name of Registrant as Specified in Its Charter)

Delaware

001-36276

27-2546083

(State or Other Jurisdiction of Incorporation)

(Commission File Number)

(IRS Employer Identification No.)

60 Leveroni Court

Novato, California

94949

(Address of Principal Executive Offices)

(Zip Code)

Registrant’s Telephone Number, Including Area Code: 415 483-8800

(Former Name or Former Address, if Changed Since Last Report)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions: ☐Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)) Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class

Trading Symbol(s)

Name of each exchange on which registered

Common Stock, $0.001 par value

RARE

Nasdaq Global Select Market

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§ 230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§ 240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended December 31, 2025 and for the year ended December 31, 2025 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information set forth under Item 2.02 and in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.

Item 2.05 Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities.

On February 12, 2026, the Company began implementation of a strategic restructuring plan to reduce expenses (the “Restructuring”). As part of the Restructuring, the Company is implementing a 10% workforce reduction of approximately 130 employees across the Company (the “RIF”). The Company began notifying affected employees on February 12, 2026, and expects this RIF to be substantially completed in the first half of 2026. The Company estimates that it will incur approximately $50 million in total restructuring and restructuring-related charges, consisting primarily of (i) approximately $10 million in total for employee severance payments and other employee-related costs and (ii) approximately $40 million in total for charges related to the termination of UX143 manufacturing agreements and other related activities. The Company anticipates that substantially all of these charges will be recognized during the first half of 2026. Cash payments related to the costs are expected to be made over the same period. The restructuring charges and the timing of the charges that the Company expects to incur in connection with the Restructuring are subject to a number of estimates and assumptions, and actual results may differ materially. The Company may also incur additional costs or charges not currently contemplated due to events that may occur as a result of, or that are associated with, the Restructuring.

Forward-Looking Statements

Except for the factual statements made herein, information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K consists of forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Words such as “anticipates”, intends,” “expects,” “plans” and similar expressions, or the use of future tense, identify forward-looking statements, but their absence does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance and actual actions or events could differ materially from those contained in such statements. These forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements about the

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Jan 12, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-4.64%

$22.41

Act: -12.68%

5D

-8.20%

$21.57

Act: -3.32%

20D

-3.04%

$22.79

Act: -9.32%

Price: $23.50 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001193125-26-009791

8-K

0001515673false00015156732026-01-122026-01-12

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): January 12, 2026

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (Exact name of Registrant as Specified in Its Charter)

Delaware

001-36276

27-2546083

(State or Other Jurisdiction of Incorporation)

(Commission File Number)

(IRS Employer Identification No.)

60 Leveroni Court

Novato, California

94949

(Address of Principal Executive Offices)

(Zip Code)

Registrant’s Telephone Number, Including Area Code: 415 483-8800

(Former Name or Former Address, if Changed Since Last Report)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions: ☐Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)) Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class

Trading Symbol(s)

Name of each exchange on which registered

Common Stock, $0.001 par value

RARE

Nasdaq Global Select Market

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§ 230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§ 240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02

Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On January 12, 2026, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing preliminary unaudited fiscal year 2025 total revenue results, revenue for Crysvita® and revenue for Dojolvi®and cash and investments at 2025 fiscal year end. The Company expects to report its full year results for the 2025 fiscal year in February 2026. A copy of the Press Release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information set forth under Item 2.02 and in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.

Item 9.01

Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d) Exhibits

Exhibit No.

Description

99.1

Press Release, dated January 12, 2026

104

The cover page from the Company’s Current Report on Form 8-K dated January 12, 2026 formatted in Inline XBRL.

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical

Date:

January 12, 2026

By:

/s/ Howard Horn

Howard Horn Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Corporate Strategy

About Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Earnings

This page provides Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on RARE's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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