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AI Earnings Predictions for Privia Health Group Inc. (PRVA)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-1.81%

$21.99

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-5.10%

$21.26

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-8.08%

$20.59

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $22.40 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q3 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q3 2026 SELL -1.81% -5.10% -8.08% 100.0% Pending
Q2 2026 SELL -2.09% -5.41% -8.22% 100.0% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL -1.92% -5.62% -8.07% 100.0% -3.13%
Q4 2025 SELL -1.67% -5.75% -6.98% 100.0% -4.30%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q3

Q3 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Nov 5, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-1.81%

$21.99

Act: +2.01%

5D

-5.10%

$21.26

20D

-8.08%

$20.59

Price: $22.40 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001759655-26-000083

EX-99.1

2 ex-9913q26earningrelease.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

Privia Health Reports Strong Third Quarter and Year-to-Date 2026 Results

–YTD’26 Net Income of $25.6M, +85.9% from YTD’25

–YTD’26 Adjusted EBITDA of $114.7M, +21.9% from YTD’25

–Full-Year 2026 Guidance Raised to Above High End for All Key Financial Metrics

–Expands VBC Footprint with Acquisition of American Choice Healthcare MSSP Business

–Exits Montana Partnership effective January 2027

ARLINGTON, VA – November 5, 2026 – Privia Health Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: PRVA) today announced financial results for the third quarter and nine-month periods ended September 30, 2026.

Third Quarter Performance

Three Months Ended September 30,

(unaudited; $ in millions, except per share amounts) 20262025 Change (%)*

Total revenue$657.0 $580.4 13.2 %

Gross profit $134.7 $122.6 9.9 %

Operating income$20.5 $14.4 42.6 %

Net income a $13.5 $6.9 96.6 %

Non-GAAP adjusted net income b

$28.0 $24.1 16.3 %

Net income per share$0.10 $0.05 100.0 %

Non-GAAP adjusted net income per share b

$0.21 $0.19 10.5 %

*Any slight variations in totals are due to rounding.

a.Net income for the three months ended September 30, 2026, included $14.0 million in non-cash stock compensation expense. Net income for the three months ended September 30, 2025 included $19.0 million in non-cash stock compensation expense.

b.Reconciliations of non-GAAP adjusted net income and other non-GAAP financial measures are presented in tables near the end of this press release.

Key Operating and Non-GAAP Financial Metrics c

Three Months Ended September 30,

(unaudited; $ in millions) 20262025Change (%)

Implemented Providers5,893 5,250 12.2 %

Value-Based Care Attributed Lives1,676,000 1,406,000 19.2 %

Practice Collections$1,028.8 $940.4 9.4 %

Care Margin $138.1 $125.2 10.3 %

Platform Contribution $73.9 $70.6 4.8 %

Adjusted EBITDA $40.6 $38.2 6.3 %

c.Reconciliations of Care Margin, Platform Contribution, Adjusted EBITDA and other non-GAAP financial measures are presented in tables near the end of this press release.

1

Nine-Month Performance

For the Nine Months Ended September 30,

($ in millions, except per share amounts) 20262025Change (%)

Total revenue$1,893.4 $1,581.7 19.7 %

Gross profit $389.3 $339.0 14.8 %

Operating income$39.7 $23.0 73.1 %

Net income a $25.6 $13.8 85.9 %

Non-GAAP adjusted net income b d e

$77.6 $65.3 18.9 %

Net income per share$0.19 $0.11 72.7 %

Non-GAAP adjusted net income per share b d e

$0.59 $0.51 15.7 %

a.Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2026 included $55.3 million in non-cash stock compensation expense. Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 included $55.6 million in non-cash stock compensation expense.

b.Reconciliations of non-GAAP adjusted net income and other non-GAAP financial measures are presented in tables near the end of this press release.

Key Operating and Non-GAAP Financial Metrics b d e

For the Nine Months Ended September 30,

($ in millions)20262025Change (%)

Practice Collections$2,913.6 $2,601.9 12.0 %

Care Margin b d $399.0 $345.7 15.4 %

Platform Contribution b d $209.9 $179.8 16.8 %

Adjusted EBITDA b d e $114.7 $94.1 21.9 %

Expands VBC Footprint with Acquisition of American Choice Healthcare MSSP Business

This week, the Company announced the acquisition of American Choice Healthcare MSSP, LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Cano Health. This Accountable Care Organization (ACO) will care for more than 36,000 attributed lives in the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP), increasing VBC attributed lives in ten existing Privia states and adding lives in three new states, starting January 1, 2027.

Privia Health paid approximately $36 million at closing using its balance sheet cash. The transaction is expected to have minimal impact on all key metrics in 2026 and positively contribute to Attributed Lives and Adjusted EBITDA in 2027.

Exits Montana Partnership effective January 2027

Privia Health has agreed to end its partnership with Surgery Partners in Montana effective January 2027. The Company supports 69 providers and generated approximately $23 million in annual Practice Collections in Montana. This is expected to have no material impact on Adjusted EBITDA in 2027.

Capital Resources

Privia Health's balance sheet at September 30, 2026, included cash and cash equivalents of $446.3 million and no debt. The Company’s cash balance does not reflect the acquisition of American Choice Healthcare MSSP, LLC at the end of October 2026. We expect to end this year with at least $520 million in cash and cash equivalents, including the American Choice Healthcare transaction and assuming the 2025 MSSP cash settlement and related provider disbursements occur before year end based on current accruals.

2

Updated Full-Year 2026 Guidance d e f g

Privia Health raised its full-year 2026 outlook as follows:

FY 2025

Initial FY 2026 Guidance at 2.27.26 d Updated FY 2026 Guidance at 11.5.26

($

2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Aug 6, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-2.09%

$21.54

Act: +2.05%

5D

-5.41%

$20.81

20D

-8.22%

$20.19

Price: $22.00 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001759655-26-000061

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2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

May 7, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-1.92%

$23.53

Act: -3.92%

5D

-5.62%

$22.64

Act: -3.13%

20D

-8.07%

$22.05

Act: -9.84%

Price: $23.99 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001759655-26-000027

EX-99.1

2 ex-9911q26earningrelease.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

Privia Health Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results

–Strong First Quarter Performance and Operating Execution

–Reiterated Full-Year 2026 Guidance Reflects Continued Momentum

ARLINGTON, VA – May 7, 2026 – Privia Health Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: PRVA) today announced financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026.

Three Months Ended March 31,

(unaudited; $ in millions, except per share amounts) 20262025 Change (%)*

Total revenue$603.8 $480.1 25.8 %

Gross profit $125.6 $103.6 21.2 %

Operating income$7.4 $5.2 42.2 %

Net income a $3.1 $4.2 (27.4)%

Non-GAAP adjusted net income b

$24.3 $19.9 22.3 %

Net income per share$0.02 $0.03 (33.3)%

Non-GAAP adjusted net income per share b

$0.19 $0.16 18.8 %

*Any slight variations in totals are due to rounding.

a.Net income for the three months ended March 31, 2026, included $21.9 million in non-cash stock compensation expense. Net income for the three months ended March 31, 2025 included $17.8 million in non-cash stock compensation expense.

b.Reconciliations of non-GAAP adjusted net income and other non-GAAP financial measures are presented in tables near the end of this press release.

First Quarter 2026 highlights include:

•Continued strength in same-store growth and new provider additions;

•Practice Collections of $914.8M, +14.6% versus 1Q’25; and

•Adjusted EBITDA c e f of $36.7M, +36.3% versus 1Q’25.

Key Operating and Non-GAAP Financial Metrics c

Three Months Ended March 31,

(unaudited; $ in millions) 20262025Change (%)

Implemented Providers5,535 4,871 13.6 %

Value-Based Care Attributed Lives1,606,000 1,270,000 26.5 %

Practice Collections$914.8 $798.6 14.6 %

Care Margin $128.7 $105.3 22.3 %

Platform Contribution $67.0 $51.7 29.6 %

Adjusted EBITDA $36.7 $26.9 36.3 %

c.Reconciliations of Care Margin, Platform Contribution, Adjusted EBITDA and other non-GAAP financial measures are presented in tables near the end of this press release.

1

Updated Full-Year 2026 Guidance d e f g

Privia Health maintained its full-year 2026 outlook for most metrics, and raised its guidance range for Attributed Lives, as follows:

FY 2025

Initial FY 2026 Guidance at 2.27.26 d

Updated FY 2026 Guidance at 5.7.26

($ in millions)ActualLowHigh

Implemented Providers5,380 5,9006,000Unchanged

Attributed Lives1,541,000 1,550,0001,600,0001,600,000 - 1,625,000

Practice Collections$3,470.5 $3,650 $3,750 Unchanged

GAAP Revenue$2,122.8 $2,350 $2,450 Unchanged

Care Margin d e f $462.2 $515 $530 Unchanged

Platform Contribution d e $234.8 $260 $270 Unchanged

Adjusted EBITDA d e f $125.5 $145 $155 Unchanged

•Expect approximately 80% of Adjusted EBITDA to convert to free cash flow in full-year 2026

•Guidance does not assume any new business development activity

d.Management has not reconciled forward-looking non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures of Gross Profit, Operating Income and Net Income. This is because the Company cannot predict with reasonable certainty and without unreasonable efforts the ultimate outcome of certain GAAP components of such reconciliations due to market-related assumptions that are not within our control as well as certain legal or advisory costs, tax costs or other costs that may arise. For these reasons, management is unable to assess the probable significance of the unavailable information, which could materially impact the amount of the future directly comparable GAAP measures.

e.See “Key Metrics and Non-GAAP Financial Measures” for more information as to how the Company defines and calculates Implemented Providers, Attributed Lives, Practice Collections, Care Margin, Platform Contribution, and Adjusted EBITDA, and for a reconciliation of the most comparable GAAP measures to Care Margin, Platform Contribution, Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Net Income Per Share.

f.Certain non-recurring or non-cash and other expenses will be treated as an add back in the reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted EBITDA, and the reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Net Income Per Share, the details of which can be found in the Reconciliation schedules near the end of this and in future quarterly press releases.

g.Any slight variations in totals due to rounding.

Webcast and Conference Call Information

The Company will host a conference call on May 7, 2026, at 8:00 am ET to discuss these results and management’s outlook for future financial and operational performance. You can visit ir.priviahealth.com/news-and-events/events-and-presentations to listen to the call via live webcast. The webcast will be archived and available for replay for on-demand listening shortly after the completion of the call under the same link. If you wish to participate in the live conference call, then please dial 888-596-4144 (or 646-968-2525 for international callers) and provide Conference ID 5704885.

This news r

About Privia Health Group Inc. (PRVA) Earnings

This page provides Privia Health Group Inc. (PRVA) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on PRVA's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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