Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns
1-Day Prediction
+20.28%
$19.69
100% positive prob.
5-Day Prediction
+28.65%
$21.06
100% positive prob.
20-Day Prediction
+41.96%
$23.24
95% positive prob.
| Quarter | Signal | 1D Return | 5D Return | 20D Return | Confidence | Actual 5D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | BUY | +20.28% | +28.65% | +41.96% | 100.0% | Pending |
| Q2 2026 | SELL | -15.29% | -21.13% | -32.24% | 100.0% | Pending |
| Q1 2026 | BUY | +20.86% | +28.57% | +44.11% | 100.0% | +30.73% |
| Q4 2025 | BUY | +21.62% | +30.48% | +48.63% | 100.0% | +7.51% |
SEC 8-K filings with transcript text
Oct 28, 2026 · 100% conf.
1D
+20.28%
$19.69
Act: +27.55%
5D
+28.65%
$21.06
20D
+41.96%
$23.24
2 prch-20261028xexx991.htm
Document
Exhibit 99.1
Porch Group Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results
Insurance Services Revenue Growth of 39% YoY; Reciprocal Policies Written¹ Growth of 42% YoY
SEATTLE, October 28, 2026 (BUSINESS WIRE) – Porch Group, Inc. (“Porch,” “the Company,” “we,” “our,” “us”) (NASDAQ: PRCH), a new kind of homeowners insurance company, today reported third quarter results through September 30, 2026, that exceeded our expectations. As a result, the Company raised guidance for the remainder of the year.
CEO Summary
“Porch continues to execute at a high level. In Q3, we rapidly grew Reciprocal Policies Written¹ 42% year-over-year, more than doubled Adjusted EBITDA (Excluding Reciprocal)² versus the prior-year period, generated strong Adjusted EBITDA (Excluding Reciprocal)² conversion to cash for Porch shareholders, further improved our leverage ratio to the low end of our targeted range, and raised our full-year outlook again. Importantly, Insurance Services is operating as a Rule of 80 business in a soft insurance market, reinforcing our confidence that the model we have built can perform across market cycles. Our proprietary data, disciplined underwriting, expanding distribution, and largely fixed cost base are creating a powerful combination of growth and operating leverage.
“With that organic foundation firmly in place, we are excited to further accelerate our growth through the pending acquisition of Allied Trust. This is a high-quality insurance business that would add scale, products, geographic reach, an experienced team, and more than a decade of operating data. We believe Porch can make those assets even more valuable over time through our proprietary property data, distribution network, and insurance operating capabilities. Allied Trust is expected to strengthen an already compelling growth profile and position Porch for a meaningful step forward in 2027,” said Matt Ehrlichman, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman and Founder.
Third Quarter 2026 Key Financial Highlights
•Consolidated revenue was $143.9 million, up 13% YoY. Porch-Owned Segments Revenue (Excluding Reciprocal)², representing the revenue contributions across the Porch-owned businesses, was $140.8 million, up 22% YoY, led by Insurance Services revenue of $102.8 million, up 39% YoY.
•Net income attributable to Porch was $12.2 million.
•Adjusted EBITDA (Excluding Reciprocal)² of $44.5 million grew 116% YoY, largely driven by $161.0 million of Reciprocal Written Premium (“RWP”)¹ and 42% YoY growth in Reciprocal Policies Written¹.
•Consolidated gross profit was $107.9 million. Porch-Owned Segments Gross Profit (Excluding Reciprocal)², representing the gross profit contributions across the Porch-owned businesses, grew 28% YoY to $120.8 million.
Third Quarter 2026 Operational Highlights
•Top-of-funnel expansion continued, with Q3 2026 producing agency branch locations rising 114% from Q3 2025 and quote volumes rising 79% from Q3 2025.
•Conversion continued to track well above prior-year levels, supporting Q3 2026 RWP¹ from new customers growth of 178% YoY.
•Reciprocal Policies Written¹ grew 42% YoY, an acceleration in the rate of YoY growth relative to Q2 2026 (38% YoY).
•Capacity remained strong with Q3 2026 statutory surplus at the Porch Reciprocal Exchange (the “Reciprocal”) of $174.4 million, up $22 million versus Q3 2025.
1 See Key Performance Measures and Operating Metrics section for definitions of metrics.
2 Adjusted EBITDA (Excluding Reciprocal), Porch-Owned Segments Revenue (Excluding Reciprocal), and Porch-Owned Segments Gross Profit (Excluding Reciprocal) are non-GAAP measures. See Non-GAAP Financial Measures section.
1
The following table presents the Company’s unaudited segment operating results for the current quarter.
UnauditedThree Months Ended September 30, 2026
(dollar amounts in thousands)Insurance ServicesSoftware & DataConsumer ServicesReciprocal
Revenue(a)$102,815 $22,329 $18,309 $58,141
Cost of revenue(b)11,635 5,548 2,810 20,932
Gross Profit91,180 16,781 15,499 37,209
Gross Margin89 %75 %85 %64 %
Operating expenses:
Selling and marketing(c)41,705 8,656 10,034 9,756
Product and technology2,502 5,533 980 2,194
General and administrative(d)4,753 2,034 2,182 29,527
Interest expense on intercompany surplus notes3,577
Other expense (income)(5,330)(1)(132)(2,929)
Income (loss) before income taxes(4,916)
Income tax benefit1,746
Net income (loss)$(3,170)
Add back:
Depreciation and amortization(137)(2,657)(560)
Stock-based compensation costs(1,757)(847)(354)
Interest expense— — (1)
Other gains and losses(682)(153)134
Adjusted EBITDA(e)$50,126 $4,216 $3,216
Adjusted EBITDA Margin(e)49 %19 %18 %
(a)Includes $2.7 million of intercompany revenue between Insurance Services, Software & Data, and Consumer Services and $55.1 million of intercompany revenue between Insurance Services a
Jul 29, 2026 · 100% conf.
1D
-15.29%
$10.47
Act: +15.37%
5D
-21.13%
$9.75
20D
-32.24%
$8.37
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Apr 28, 2026 · 100% conf.
1D
+20.86%
$10.38
Act: +18.28%
5D
+28.57%
$11.04
Act: +30.73%
20D
+44.11%
$12.38
Act: +18.39%
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This page provides Porch Group Inc. (PRCH) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.
Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on PRCH's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.