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AI Earnings Predictions for Philip Morris International Inc (PM)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+0.56%

$197.95

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+2.43%

$201.63

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+1.93%

$200.64

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $196.84 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q3 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q3 2026 BUY +0.56% +2.43% +1.93% 100.0% Pending
Q2 2026 BUY +0.81% +2.47% +2.40% 100.0% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL +1.26% -0.95% +1.85% 100.0% -0.76%
Q4 2025 SELL +1.26% -0.95% +1.85% 100.0% +2.57%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q3

Q3 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Oct 21, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+0.56%

$197.95

Act: +1.56%

5D

+2.43%

$201.63

20D

+1.93%

$200.64

Price: $196.84 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001628280-26-066596

Transcript text not available. View on SEC.gov →

2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Jul 22, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+0.81%

$189.33

Act: -1.64%

5D

+2.47%

$192.44

20D

+2.40%

$192.31

Price: $187.81 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001628280-26-049107

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2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Apr 22, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

+1.26%

$166.01

Act: +3.20%

5D

-0.95%

$162.40

Act: -0.76%

20D

+1.85%

$166.99

Act: +15.05%

Price: $163.95 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001628280-26-026385

EX-99.1

2 earningsreleasepm-ex991xq1.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

PRESS RELEASE

Philip Morris International Reports 2026 First-Quarter Results

and Updates 2026 Full-Year Adjusted Diluted EPS Forecast for Currency Only;

Reported Diluted EPS declined by 9.3% to $1.56;

Adjusted Diluted EPS grew by 16.0% to $1.96; and by 5.3% excluding currency;

STAMFORD, CT, April 22, 2026 – Philip Morris International Inc. (PMI) (NYSE: PM) today announces its 2026 first quarter results.1

"Our performance exceeded our expectations in the first quarter, with an outstanding delivery from IQOS driving very good growth for the group against a strong prior-year comparison," said Jacek Olczak, Group CEO PMI.

"Building on excellent broad-based momentum in the international smoke-free business and 16% adjusted diluted EPS growth in Q1, we are well positioned to continue delivering best-in-class performance in 2026."

Results Highlights

Net revenues increased by 9.1% (2.7% organically) to $10.1 billion, with both the smoke-free (up by 12.4%, 5.3% organically) and combustibles (up by 6.7%, 0.9% organically) businesses making meaningful contributions. Our smoke-free business accounted for 43% of total net revenues (up by 1.3pp) with PMI smoke-free products (SFP) now available in 108 markets.

Gross profit increased by 10.1% (3.8% organically), expanding gross margin through strong pricing, operating leverage and SFP mix benefits. Operating income increased by 9.8% (0.9% organically), as we continue to invest for future growth.

Reported diluted EPS declined due to the non-cash fair value adjustment of our minority shareholding in India.

International Smoke-Free Segment

Our performance continues to be driven by the international smoke-free business with net revenue growth of 24.7% (15.8% organically) fueled by 11.9% volume growth, and gross profit growth of 28.6% (19.4% organically) reflecting the increasing profitability of the portfolio. IQOS remains the primary growth engine, with double-digit growth in both shipment volume and adjusted IMS.

Heat-not-burn SFP: IQOS continued to lead the growth of the global category, in which PMI holds approximately 77% volume share. Notably in Q1, IQOS surpassed Marlboro and became the #1 nicotine ‘brand’ in markets where present (gaining 1.7pp to reach 10.9% of combined cigarette and HTU industry volumes). HTU adjusted in-market sales (IMS) volume, which excludes the net impact of estimated distributor and wholesaler inventory movements, grew by 10.9%, broadly in line with shipment volume growth of 11.3%. The growth was broad-based across geographies with all key consumables product lines (TEREA, DELIA/SENTIA and LEVIA) contributing to the strong performance. Excluding the impact of consumer pantry-loading in Japan ahead of the excise-driven price increase on April 1, adjusted IMS grew by an estimated 9.4%.

•In Japan, PMI HTU adjusted IMS grew by an estimated 10.4% with IQOS holding close to 70% of heat-not-burn category volume. The overall HTU category reached approximately 53% total nicotine national offtake

1 Explanation of PMI's use of non-GAAP measures cited in this document and reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures can be found in the “Non-GAAP Measures, Glossary and Explanatory Notes” section of this release, in Exhibit 99.2 to the company's Form 8-K dated April 22, 2026, and here.

- 1 -

share, and IQOS HTU adjusted IMS share of total nicotine increased by 2.7pp to a record 34.9%, notwithstanding continued competitive intensity. Excluding the aforementioned pantry-loading impact, adjusted IMS grew by an estimated 5.9%.

•In Europe, as we continue to invest in brand equity and innovation, IQOS HTU adjusted IMS grew by an estimated 5.4% and IQOS HTU adjusted market share increased by 1.1pp to 12.6%, notwithstanding ongoing disruptions in Ukraine and the initial impact of the characterizing flavor ban in Poland, which was implemented in January. This growth was led by strong performance in many markets, notably Italy, Greece, Germany, Spain and Serbia. Excluding markets where the characterizing flavor ban became effective in the last year, adjusted IMS volumes grew by around 8%.

•Outside Europe and Japan, adjusted IMS grew by 19.4% and offtake share increased in key cities across the globe, including Mexico City, Jakarta, Riyadh, Kuala Lumpur and Seoul. In Taiwan, IQOS national offtake share reached almost 6% in March, making it the most successful major launch market to date.

Oral SFP: Robust modern oral volume growth to 0.5 billion pouches was more than offset by snus declines in the Nordics, resulting in a total oral SFP shipment volume decrease of 5.1%. Our business continues to expand, with ZYN now available in 58 markets, and to outperform the industry outside the Nordics, with notable offtake share gains in Pakistan, Poland and the UK. Our focus remains on switching legal-age smokers with a relevant product portfolio, including 1.5mg v

About Philip Morris International Inc (PM) Earnings

This page provides Philip Morris International Inc (PM) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on PM's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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