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AI Earnings Predictions for Progressive Corporation (The) (PGR)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-1.93%

$208.63

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-1.86%

$208.78

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+3.04%

$219.21

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $212.74 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q4 2025

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Jan 28, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-1.93%

$208.63

Act: -2.11%

5D

-1.86%

$208.78

Act: -3.38%

20D

+3.04%

$219.21

Act: -0.47%

Price: $212.74 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0000080661-26-000071

pgr-20260126FalsePROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/000008066100000806612026-01-262026-01-26

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported) January 26, 2026

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Ohio001-0951834-0963169 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)(Commission File Number)(IRS Employer Identification No.)

300 North Commons Blvd.,Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143 (Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code (440) 461-5000

Not Applicable (Former name or former address, if changed since last report.)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐     Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐     Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)) Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each classTrading Symbol(s)Name of each exchange on which registered Common Stock, $1.00 Par ValuePGRNew York Stock Exchange

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).

Emerging growth company☐

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On January 28, 2026, The Progressive Corporation (the “Company”) issued a news release containing financial results of the Company and its consolidated subsidiaries for the month and year ended December 31, 2025, and selected quarterly financial results. A copy of the news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.

Item 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.

(b) On January 28, 2026, the Company issued a news release announcing that John P. Sauerland, the Company's Chief Financial Officer (CFO), intends to retire from the Company on July 3, 2026, and that Andrew J. Quigg, the Company's Chief Strategy Officer, is expected to be appointed as CFO upon Mr. Sauerland's retirement. A copy of the news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2.

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d) Exhibits

See exhibit index on page 3. - 1 -

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

Date:January 28, 2026

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION

By:/s/ Carl G. Joyce Name:Carl G. Joyce Title:Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer

- 2 -

EXHIBIT INDEX

Exhibit No. Under Reg. S-K Item 601Form 8-K Exhibit No.

Description

9999.1News release dated January 28, 2026, containing financial results of The Progressive Corporation and its consolidated subsidiaries for the month and year ended December 31, 2025, and selected quarterly financial results.

9999.2News release dated January 28, 2026, announcing CFO retirement and other management changes.

104104Cover Page Interactive Data File (the cover page tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document).

- 3 -

2025
Q3

Q3 2025 Earnings

8-K

Oct 15, 2025

0000080661-25-000126

pgr-20251015FalsePROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/000008066100000806612025-10-152025-10-15

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported) October 15, 2025

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Ohio001-0951834-0963169 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)(Commission File Number)(IRS Employer Identification No.)

300 North Commons Blvd.,Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143 (Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code (440) 461-5000

Not Applicable (Former name or former address, if changed since last report.)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐     Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐     Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)) Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each classTrading Symbol(s)Name of each exchange on which registered Common Stock, $1.00 Par ValuePGRNew York Stock Exchange

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).

Emerging growth company☐

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On October 15, 2025, The Progressive Corporation (the “Company”) issued a news release containing financial results of the Company and its consolidated subsidiaries for the month and year-to-date periods ended September 30, 2025, with selected quarterly financial results. A copy of the news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d) Exhibits

See exhibit index on page 3. - 1 -

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

Date:October 15, 2025

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION

By:/s/ Carl G. Joyce Name:Carl G. Joyce Title:Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer

- 2 -

EXHIBIT INDEX

Exhibit No. Under Reg. S-K Item 601Form 8-K Exhibit No.

Description

9999News release dated October 15, 2025, containing financial results of The Progressive Corporation and its consolidated subsidiaries for the month and year-to-date periods ended September 30, 2025, with selected quarterly financial results.

104104Cover Page Interactive Data File (the cover page tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document).

- 3 -

2025
Q2

Q2 2025 Earnings

8-K

Jul 16, 2025

0000080661-25-000038

pgr-20250716FalsePROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/000008066100000806612025-07-162025-07-16

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported) July 16, 2025

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Ohio001-0951834-0963169 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)(Commission File Number)(IRS Employer Identification No.)

300 North Commons Blvd.,Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143 (Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code (440) 461-5000

Not Applicable (Former name or former address, if changed since last report.)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐     Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐     Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)) Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each classTrading Symbol(s)Name of each exchange on which registered Common Stock, $1.00 Par ValuePGRNew York Stock Exchange

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).

Emerging growth company☐

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On July 16, 2025, The Progressive Corporation (the “Company”) issued a news release containing financial results for the Company and its consolidated subsidiaries for the month and year-to-date periods ended June 30, 2025, and selected quarterly financial results. A copy of the news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d) Exhibits

See exhibit index on page 3. - 1 -

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

Date:July 16, 2025

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION

By:/s/ Carl G. Joyce Name:Carl G. Joyce Title:Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer

- 2 -

EXHIBIT INDEX

Exhibit No. Under Reg. S-K Item 601Form 8-K Exhibit No.

Description

9999News release dated July 16, 2025, containing financial results of The Progressive Corporation and its consolidated subsidiaries for the month and year-to-date periods ended June 30, 2025, and selected quarterly financial results.

104104Cover Page Interactive Data File (the cover page tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document).

- 3 -

About Progressive Corporation (The) (PGR) Earnings

This page provides Progressive Corporation (The) (PGR) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on PGR's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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