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AI Earnings Predictions for PennyMac Financial Services Inc. (PFSI)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+6.56%

$68.45

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+5.09%

$67.51

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+5.09%

$67.51

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $64.24 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q3 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q3 2026 BUY +6.56% +5.09% +5.09% 100.0% Pending
Q2 2026 BUY +6.56% +5.09% +5.09% 99.9% Pending
Q1 2026 BUY +7.99% +5.84% +7.69% 100.0% +1.31%
Q4 2025 SELL -5.18% -5.83% -4.67% 100.0% -34.86%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q3

Q3 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Oct 29, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+6.56%

$68.45

Act: -2.67%

5D

+5.09%

$67.51

20D

+5.09%

$67.51

Price: $64.24 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001104659-26-120224

EX-99.1

4 tm2628494d1_ex99-1.htm

EXHIBIT 99.1

Exhibit 99.1

PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results and

Announces Changes to its Leadership Team

WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif. – October 29, 2026 – PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (NYSE: PFSI) today reported net income of $29 million, or $0.54 in diluted earnings per share (EPS), on total net revenues of $469 million for the third quarter of 2026. Adjusted net income was $56 million, or $1.05 in adjusted diluted EPS, on adjusted net revenues of $502 million1. PFSI’s Board of Directors declared a third quarter cash dividend of $0.30 per share, payable on November 27, 2026, to common stockholders of record as of November 16, 2026.

Additionally, PFSI today announced that Doug Jones, President and Chief Mortgage Banking Officer, will be retiring on June 30, 2027 after a storied career in the mortgage banking industry including more than 15 years of leadership at Pennymac. His roles and responsibilities will transition to other senior leaders within the company over the next several months.

Also, effective January 1, 2027, Kevin Ryan, currently Chief Strategy Officer, will assume the role of Chief Financial Officer (CFO). Current CFO, Daniel Perotti, will remain in his current role through the remainder of this year and will continue to support the company in an advisory role through the first quarter of 2027. Mr. Ryan will continue to lead the strategy and business development teams while in his new role.

“I am extraordinarily grateful to both Doug and Dan for their long service at Pennymac and their ongoing commitment to and passion for our business,” said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer David Spector. “Both served in various roles and helped to shape Pennymac’s significant growth and transformation into a leading mortgage company. They have made invaluable contributions to the company, and will be greatly missed.”

Mr. Spector continued, “We are very fortunate to have an exceptional leadership team and a deep bench of talent to lead Pennymac into the next chapter, and drive long-term value for our stockholders.”

CEO Commentary

“Our servicing business delivered strong profitability, while our production segment reported a pretax loss due an industry-wide contraction in origination activity coupled with margin pressure near the end of the quarter,“ said Chairman and CEO David Spector. “We expect mortgage demand will remain subdued due to higher interest rates, and as a result we have taken aggressive and proactive steps to right-size our platform appropriately. By the first quarter of 2027 we expect to have reduced our annualized operating expenses by $160 million from the second quarter of 2026.”

Mr. Spector continued, “Looking forward, we are executing on several high-impact strategic catalysts to optimize returns on capital. Subsequent to quarter-end, we agreed to sell $29 billion in UPB of low-rate conventional MSRs where recapture opportunities are limited. We plan to redeploy the $490 million in proceeds to reduce higher-cost debt and repurchase common shares while our stock trades at a sizable discount to book value. In addition, we expect to close the acquisition of Cenlar’s subservicing business in early 2027, scaling our high-margin, fee-based servicing platform. Coupled with the accelerated deployment of AI across our production workflows, we are well-positioned to capture significant operating leverage when market volumes rebound.”

1 Items labeled as “adjusted” are non-GAAP financial measures. See page 10 for a reconciliation of GAAP net income to adjusted net income and adjusted diluted EPS, as well as for a reconciliation of GAAP total net revenue to adjusted net revenues.

1

The table below highlights key financial performance metrics2:

($ in millions except per share metrics)

3Q26

2Q26

3Q25

Q/Q

Y/Y

Total net revenues 469 497

633

(6 )% (26 )%

Net income 29 22

182

32 % (84 )%

Diluted EPS $0.54 $0.41 $ 3.37

32 % (84 )%

Annualized return on equity (ROE) 3% 2%

18 % 1 % (15 )%

Adjusted net revenues 502 566

630

(11 )% (20 )%

Adjusted net income 56 74

180

(25 )% (69 )%

Adjusted diluted EPS $1.05 $1.39 $ 3.33

(25 )% (69 )%

Annualized adjusted ROE 5% 7%

17 % (2 )% (12 )%

Book value per share $83.85 $83.49 $ 81.12

0 % 3 %

Cash dividends declared per common share $0.30 $0.30 $ 0.30

--

--

Key Operating and Financial Metrics

●Annualized return on equity (ROE) was 3%, up from 2% in the prior quarter

●Annualized adjusted ROE was 5%2, down from 7% in the prior quarter

●Total loan acquisitions and originations were $24.4 billion in unpaid principal balance (UPB), down 30% from the prior quarter

●Production revenue margins3 were 76 basis points of total fallout adjusted lock volume, down slightly from 77 basis points in the prior quarter; production segment pretax loss was $7 million, compared to $38 million of pretax income in the prior quarter

●Owned servicing portfolio totaled $496 billion

2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Jul 29, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+6.56%

$91.68

Act: -11.82%

5D

+5.09%

$90.42

20D

+5.09%

$90.42

Price: $86.04 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001104659-26-088174

EX-99.1

2 tm2621541d1_ex99-1.htm

EXHIBIT 99.1

Exhibit 99.1

PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. Reports

Second Quarter 2026 Results

WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif. – July 29, 2026 – PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (NYSE: PFSI) today reported net income of $22 million, or $0.41 in diluted earnings per share (EPS), on total net revenues of $497 million for the second quarter of 2026. Adjusted net income was $74 million, or $1.39 in adjusted diluted EPS, on adjusted net revenues of $566 million1. PFSI’s Board of Directors declared a second quarter cash dividend of $0.30 per share, payable on August 27, 2026, to common stockholders of record as of August 17, 2026.

CEO Commentary

“PennyMac Financial generated a 2% annualized return on equity and a 7% annualized adjusted return on equity1 in the second quarter,” said Chairman and CEO David Spector. “While our operational execution remained solid, our results fell short of expectations due to higher interest rates during the period. As a result, we are actively taking steps to realign our cost structure to enhance profitability.”

Mr. Spector continued, “Additionally, ongoing investments in technology are providing the structural leverage required to streamline our production division and lower our cost-to-produce without compromising capacity or the customer experience. Importantly, our recapture rates improved meaningfully in the second quarter, positioning us to capture significant upside when the origination market expands. As we onboard Cenlar’s subservicing portfolio, our tech-enabled efficiency and massive scale are expected to allow us to realize substantial operating leverage. We believe this fee-based revenue stream is a key component that will help us achieve our long-term ROE targets.”

The table below highlights key financial performance metrics1:

($ in millions except per share metrics)

2Q26

1Q26

2Q25

Q/Q Y/Y

Total net revenues 497 545 445 (9)% 12%

Net income 22 82 136 (74)% (84)%

Diluted EPS $0.41 $1.53 $2.54 (73)% (84)%

Annualized return on equity (ROE) 2% 8% 14% (6)% (12)%

Adjusted net revenues 566 589 537 (4)% 5%

Adjusted net income 74 118 124 (37)% (40)%

Adjusted diluted EPS $1.39 $2.19 $2.31 (37)% (40)%

Annualized adjusted ROE 7% 11% 13% (4)% (6)%

Book value per share $83.49 $83.31 $78.04 0% 7%

Cash dividends declared per common share $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 -- --

1 Items labeled as “adjusted” are non-GAAP financial measures. See pages 9 and 10 for a reconciliation of GAAP net income to adjusted net income, adjusted diluted EPS and annualized adjusted return on equity, as well as for a reconciliation of GAAP total net revenue to adjusted net revenues.

1

Key Operating and Financial Metrics

·Annualized ROE was 2%, down from 14% in the second quarter of 2025

·Annualized adjusted ROE was 7%2, down from 13% in the second quarter of 2025

·Total loan acquisitions and originations were $34.9 billion in unpaid principal balance (UPB), down 8% from the second quarter of 2025

○Consumer direct originations were $5.6 billion in UPB, up 103% from the second quarter of 2025

·Production revenue margins3 were 77 basis points of total fallout adjusted lock volume, up from 55 basis points in the second quarter of 2025; production segment pretax income was $38 million, down from $58 million in the second quarter of 2025

·Owned servicing portfolio totaled $488 billion in UPB at June 30, 2026, up 5% from June 30, 2025

·Servicing segment pretax income was $22 million, down from $54 million in the second quarter of 2025; pretax income excluding valuation-related changes was $99 million, up from $57 million in the prior quarter and down from $146 million in the second quarter of 2025

·Pretax loss from Corporate and other was $29 million, compared to $35 million in the second quarter of 2025

·Book value per share was $83.49 at June 30, 2026, up 7% from June 30, 2025

Business Highlights

·Our new consumer direct loan origination system has facilitated a rapid implementation of process-automating AI agents, including the launch of a proprietary Natural Language Virtual Agent (NLVA) across both outbound and inbound calls

·Conventional first-lien refinance recapture rates increased 7 percentage points from the prior quarter to 29% and government first-lien recapture rates increased 9 percentage points from the prior quarter to 59%

·Continued to make progress on the acquisition of Cenlar’s subservicing business and expect the transaction to close in the fourth quarter

·Expanded our strategic partnership with Amazon Web Services to further bolster our transformation as an AI-driven mortgage technology leader

Guidance

·With a smaller projected origination market due to higher interest rates, we expect adjusted ROEs to remain in the high single digits through 2026 as we reduce our expense base

2 See page 9 for a reconciliation of GAAP net income to annualized adjusted return on equity

3 Presented net of loan origination expense

2

Production Segment H

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

May 5, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+7.99%

$94.47

Act: -0.62%

5D

+5.84%

$92.59

Act: +1.31%

20D

+7.69%

$94.20

Act: -7.86%

Price: $87.48 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001104659-26-055670

EX-99.1

2 tm2613557d1_ex99-1.htm

EXHIBIT 99.1

Exhibit 99.1

PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. Reports

First Quarter 2026 Results

WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif. – May 5, 2026 – PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (NYSE: PFSI) today reported net income of $82.3 million for the first quarter of 2026, or $1.53 per share on a diluted basis, on total net revenues of $545.0 million. Adjusted net income was $117.7 million and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was $2.19.1 Book value per share increased to $83.31 from $82.77 at December 31, 2025.

PFSI’s Board of Directors declared a first quarter cash dividend of $0.30 per share, payable on May 28, 2026, to common stockholders of record as of May 18, 2026.

First Quarter 2026 Highlights

·Pretax income was $104.7 million, down from $134.4 million in the prior quarter and up slightly from $104.2 million in the first quarter of 2025

·Production segment pretax income was $133.6 million, up from $127.3 million in the prior quarter and $61.9 million in the first quarter of 2025

oTotal loan acquisitions and originations, including those fulfilled for PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (NYSE: PMT), were $37.0 billion in unpaid principal balance (UPB), down 12% from the prior quarter and up 28% from the first quarter of 2025

–Production revenue margins, including fulfillment fees from PMT, were 86 basis points, up from 73 basis points in the prior quarter and 68 basis points in the first quarter of 2025

–Total correspondent acquisitions were $24.4 billion in UPB, down 20% from the prior quarter and up 6% from the first quarter of 2025

–Broker direct originations were $6.7 billion in UPB, up 3% from the prior quarter and 102% from the first quarter of 2025

–Consumer direct originations were $6.0 billion in UPB, up 15% from the prior quarter and 130% from the first quarter of 2025

1 See page 14 for a reconciliation of GAAP net income to adjusted net income and adjusted EPS

1

oTotal locks, including those for PMT, were $44.8 billion in UPB, down 4% from the prior quarter and up 31% from the first quarter of 2025

·Servicing segment pretax income was $12.7 million, down from $37.3 million in the prior quarter and $76.0 million in the first quarter of 2025

o   Pretax income excluding valuation-related items was $56.7 million, up 25% from the prior quarter

oValuation-related items included:

–$183.0 million in mortgage servicing rights (MSR) fair value gains more than offset by $221.1 million in hedging losses, including $13.8 million in principal-only stripped mortgage-backed security (MBS) valuation-related accretion changes, and $6.0 million in provisions for losses on active loans

·Net impact on pretax income related to these items was $(44.1) million or $(0.61) in diluted earnings per share

oServicing portfolio at the end of the quarter was $720.3 billion in UPB, down 2% from December 31, 2025 due to runoff and the transfer of $24 billion in UPB of MSR that was sold in the prior quarter which more than offset growth from production volumes

·Pretax loss from Corporate and Other was $41.5 million, compared to $30.2 million in the prior quarter and $33.7 million in the first quarter of 2025

·Repurchased approximately 560,000 shares of PFSI’s common stock at an average price of $89.28 per share for a cost of $50.0 million

“In the first quarter, PennyMac Financial generated an 8% annualized return on equity and an 11% annualized adjusted return on equity2,” said Chairman and CEO David Spector. “Our performance reflects our ongoing emphasis on maximizing returns on invested capital. The combination of strong operational execution in our consumer and broker direct lending channels along with improving operating efficiency drove production segment pretax income to its highest level in nearly five years. The growth in our direct channels was paired with our consistent strategic deployment of capital through the correspondent channel.”

Mr. Spector continued, “We are focused on driving growth where the marginal returns are most accretive to our current operating returns and where we can further lean into the operational scale we have achieved. We expect the acquisition of Cenlar to leverage the significant scale advantage of our tech-first platform and enhance our profitability over time. Despite expectations for a smaller origination market as interest rates move higher again, we remain confident in our ability to generate meaningful adjusted returns on equity as we move through 2026.”

2 See page 14 for a reconciliation of GAAP net income to annualized adjusted return on equity

2

The following table presents the contributions of PFSI’s segments to pretax income:

Quarter ended March 31, 2026

Production Servicing Reportable

segment total Corporate

and other Total

(in thousands)

Revenue:

Net gains on loans held for sale at fair value $311,201 $33,784 $344,985 $- $344,985

Loan origination fees 72,446 - 72,446 - 72,446

Fulfillment fees from PMT 5,737 - 5,737 - 5,737

About PennyMac Financial Services Inc. (PFSI) Earnings

This page provides PennyMac Financial Services Inc. (PFSI) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on PFSI's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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