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AI Earnings Predictions for Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+1.17%

$70.73

96% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+8.18%

$75.64

96% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+14.07%

$79.76

91% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $69.92 Confidence: 91.5% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q2 2026 BUY +1.17% +8.18% +14.07% 91.5% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL -0.16% -4.00% -3.28% 99.9% -8.84%
Q4 2025 SELL -0.16% -4.00% -3.29% 100.0% +11.53%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Aug 5, 2026 · 91% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+1.17%

$70.73

Act: -1.40%

5D

+8.18%

$75.64

20D

+14.07%

$79.76

Price: $69.92 Prob +5D: 96% AUC: 1.000
0001628280-26-052766

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2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

May 5, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-0.16%

$69.09

Act: -9.99%

5D

-4.00%

$66.43

Act: -8.84%

20D

-3.28%

$66.93

Act: -17.36%

Price: $69.20 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001628280-26-030714

EX-99.1

2 a20260331991earningsreleas.htm

EX-99.1

Document

NEWS RELEASE

PAR PACIFIC HOLDINGS REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS

HOUSTON, May 5, 2026 - Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: PARR) (“Par Pacific” or the “Company”) today reported its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026.

•Net income attributable to Par Pacific stockholders of $54.5 million, or $1.10 per diluted share

•Adjusted Net Income attributable to Par Pacific stockholders of $38.5 million, or $0.78 per diluted share

•Adjusted EBITDA of $91.5 million

•Repurchased $28.0 million of common stock at an average price of $37.96 per share

•Record quarterly Hawaii refining throughput of 89.8 Mbpd

•Hawaii renewable fuels facility began commercial operations in April

The Company reported Net income (loss) attributable to Par Pacific stockholders of $54.5 million, or $1.10 per diluted share, for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, compared to $(30.4) million, or $(0.57) per diluted share, for the same quarter in 2025. First quarter 2026 Adjusted Net income (loss) attributable to Par Pacific stockholders was $38.5 million, compared to $(50.3) million in the first quarter of 2025. First quarter 2026 Adjusted EBITDA was $91.5 million, compared to $10.1 million in the first quarter of 2025. A reconciliation of reported non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the tables accompanying this news release.

“Our continued focus on reliability and commercial performance through market cycles enabled strong first quarter results,” said Will Monteleone, President and Chief Executive Officer. “During April, the Hawaii renewable fuels facility successfully achieved commercial operations, a major milestone for the project. Our outlook is strong and we are well positioned to capitalize on the elevated margin environment across our system.”

Refining

The Refining segment reported operating income of $56.3 million in the first quarter of 2026, compared to an operating loss of $(24.7) million in the first quarter of 2025. Adjusted Gross Margin for the Refining segment was $185.1 million in the first quarter of 2026, compared to $104.3 million in the first quarter of 2025.

Refining segment Adjusted EBITDA was $69.2 million in the first quarter of 2026, compared to $(14.3) million in the first quarter of 2025. Refining segment throughput was 184 thousand barrels per day (Mbpd) for the first quarter of 2026, compared to 176 Mbpd for the first quarter of 2025.

Hawaii

The Hawaii Index averaged $31.11 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, compared to $8.13 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025. Throughput in the first quarter of 2026 was 90 Mbpd, compared to 79 Mbpd for

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the same quarter in 2025. Production costs were $4.67 per throughput barrel in the first quarter of 2026, compared to $4.81 per throughput barrel in the same period of 2025.

The Hawaii refinery’s Adjusted Gross Margin was $13.10 per barrel during the first quarter of 2026, including a net price lag impact of approximately $(125.5) million, or $(15.52) per barrel, compared to $8.90 per barrel during the first quarter of 2025.

The net price lag impact reflects the Hawaii refinery’s contractual sales volumes that are structured on prior month and prior week average pricing. The first quarter 2026 net price lag impact was driven by rapidly rising refined product prices, resulting in adjusted gross margin lagging current period market conditions. We expect this net price lag impact to reverse during a declining refined product price environment.

Montana

The Montana Index averaged $4.84 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, compared to $7.07 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025. The Montana refinery’s throughput in the first quarter of 2026 was 57 Mbpd, compared to 52 Mbpd for the same quarter in 2025. Production costs were $9.05 per throughput barrel in the first quarter of 2026, compared to $10.56 per throughput barrel in the same period of 2025.

The Montana refinery’s Adjusted Gross Margin was $6.93 per barrel during the first quarter of 2026, compared to $5.04 per barrel during the first quarter of 2025.

Washington

The Washington Index averaged $8.20 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, compared to $4.15 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025. The Washington refinery’s throughput was 23 Mbpd in the first quarter of 2026, compared to 39 Mbpd in the first quarter of 2025. Production costs were $7.53 per throughput barrel in the first quarter of 2026, compared to $4.16 per throughput barrel in the same period of 2025.

The Washington refinery’s Adjusted Gross Margin was $8.17 per barrel during the first quarter of 2026, compared to $2.09 per barrel during the first quarter of 2025.

Wyoming

The Wyoming Index averaged $19.30 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, compared to $20.31 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025. The Wyoming refinery’s throughput was 15 Mbpd in the first quarter of 2026, com

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Feb 24, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-0.16%

$40.97

Act: -6.09%

5D

-4.00%

$39.39

Act: +11.53%

20D

-3.29%

$39.68

Price: $41.03 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001628280-26-011234

parr-202602240000821483false00008214832025-11-042025-11-04

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 OR 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): February 24, 2026

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Delaware1-3655084-1060803 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)(Commission File Number)(I.R.S. Employer Identification No.)

825 Town & Country Lane, Suite 1500 Houston,Texas77024 (Address of principal executive offices)(Zip Code)

(281) 899-4800 (Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)

(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

☐Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of Class Trading Symbol(s) Name of each exchange of which registered

Common stock, $0.01 par value

PARR

New York Stock Exchange

Common stock, $0.01 par value

PARR

NYSE Texas, Inc.

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (17 CFR §230.405) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (17 CFR §240.12b-2). Emerging growth company ¨ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

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Item 2.02.    Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On February 24, 2026, Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") issued a news release reporting results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. The news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.

In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the foregoing information, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information and Exhibit 99.1 be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.

Item 9.01    Financial Statements and Exhibits

(d)Exhibits

99.1News Release dated February 24, 2026.

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SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.

Dated: February 24, 2026/s/ Jeffrey R. Hollis

Jeffrey R. Hollis Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Secretary

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About Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) Earnings

This page provides Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on PARR's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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