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AI Earnings Predictions for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. (OLLI)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-2.98%

$71.67

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-2.90%

$71.73

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-1.81%

$72.54

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $73.87 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q2 2026 SELL -2.98% -2.90% -1.81% 100.0% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL -2.36% -3.06% -0.93% 100.0% -1.94%
Q4 2025 SELL -3.66% -3.07% +1.73% 100.0% Pending
Q3 2025 SELL -4.23% -2.91% +2.50% 100.0% -3.74%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Sep 2, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-2.98%

$71.67

Act: -0.35%

5D

-2.90%

$71.73

20D

-1.81%

$72.54

Price: $73.87 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001140361-26-035406

EX-99.1

2 ef20081496_ex99-1.htm

EXHIBIT 99.1

Exhibit 99.1

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Announces

Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results

Net Sales Increased 9.1%

Opened 15 New Stores and Grew Ollie’s Army 12.7%

Updating Outlook for Fiscal 2026

HARRISBURG, PA – September 2, 2026 – Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: OLLI) (the “Company”) today announced financial results for the second quarter ended August 1, 2026.

“We delivered strong earnings growth in the second quarter and continued to execute against our key strategic initiatives,” said Eric van der Valk, President and Chief Executive Officer. “Comparable store sales declined 1.8% against a challenging multi-year stack. We believe our sales results were negatively impacted by the combination of less favorable weather, continued economic pressure on the consumer, and an elevated promotional environment, which all led to a more challenging backdrop than we originally expected.”

Mr. van der Valk continued, “Consumers continue to seek value and many of the same pressures affecting our customers are creating buying opportunities across the closeout market. We continue to see strong deal flow and remain committed to reinvesting in price and strengthening our competitive position. With a flexible business model, deep vendor relationships, growing scale, and a talented team, we believe Ollie's is well positioned to deliver long-term profitable growth through any retail environment.”

Thirteen weeks ended

August 1,

August 2,

Dollars in thousands, except per share data

2026

2025

Net sales

$

741,305

$

679,556

Yr/yr change

9.1

%

17.5

%

Comparable store sales change (1)

(1.8

%)

5.0

%

Net income

$

85,454

$

61,310

Net income per diluted share

$

1.42

$

0.99

Adjusted net income per diluted share

$

1.42

$

0.99

Yr/yr change

43.4

%

26.9

%

Adjusted EBITDA

$

127,095

$

93,786

% of net sales

17.1

%

13.8

%

Store openings (2)

15

29

Store growth, yr/yr change

11.9

%

16.8

%

(1)

Calculated based on the comparable number of weeks from the prior year.

(2)

Gross number that does not include any store closures in the period.

Second Quarter 2026 Highlights and Year-Over-Year Comparisons

Opened 15 new stores and closed one store related to storm damage, ending the quarter with 686 stores in 36 states, an increase of 11.9%.

Ollie’s Army loyalty members increased 12.7% to 18.1 million members.

Net sales increased 9.1% to $741.3 million, driven by new store unit growth.

Comparable store sales decreased 1.8%, against a 5.0% increase in last year’s second quarter, with this year’s decrease driven by a decrease in average basket size.

Gross margin increased 360 basis points to 43.5%. The increase was driven by lower supply chain costs, primarily from IEEPA tariff refunds and lower tariff rates. IEEPA tariff refunds benefited gross margin by 380 basis points in this year’s second quarter.

Selling, general, and administrative (“SG&A”) expenses as a percentage of net sales increased 80 basis points to 26.6%, with the increase primarily driven by the deleverage of fixed costs from the decline in comparable store sales and higher marketing expenses primarily from one additional merchandise flyer in the second quarter.

Pre-opening expenses decreased 42.0% to $5.2 million, driven primarily by a lower number of new store openings and lower dark rent expense.

Adjusted net income increased 40.3% to $85.4 million and adjusted net income per diluted share increased 43.4% to $1.42.

Total cash and investments increased $46.8 million, to $507.1 million. This included cash and cash equivalents of $120.8 million, short-term investments of $66.7 million, and long-term investments of $319.6 million.

The Company invested $84.0 million of cash to repurchase 1.107 million shares of its common stock in the second quarter. In the first half of the year, the Company repurchased $137.3 million, or 1.6 million shares, of its common stock. At the end of the second quarter, $121.5 million remained available for future share repurchases under the current share repurchase authorization.

2

Page

Outlook

The Company is updating its financial outlook figures for the fiscal year 2026 ending January 30, 2027. The Company is updating its net sales outlook to better align with recent sales trends and the current environment for the balance of the fiscal year. In addition, the Company’s current outlook now includes IEEPA tariff refunds of $28.3 million received in the second quarter, of which the Company intends to reinvest in pricing actions to further strengthen its competitive position. A table comparing the current outlook metrics to the previous outlook metrics is below.

Current

Previous

New store openings(1)

75

75

Net sales

$2.928 to $2.941 billion

$2.980 to $3.000 billion

Comparable store sales growth

0% to 0.5%

~2%

Gross margin

~41.3%

~40.7%

Operating income

$345 to $350 million

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Jun 3, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-2.36%

$77.97

Act: -6.74%

5D

-3.06%

$77.41

Act: -1.94%

20D

-0.93%

$79.11

Act: -7.06%

Price: $79.85 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001140361-26-023811

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2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Mar 12, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-3.66%

$100.83

Act: +4.18%

5D

-3.07%

$101.44

20D

+1.73%

$106.47

Price: $104.66 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001140361-26-009133

false000163930000016393002026-03-122026-03-12

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, DC 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of report: March 12, 2026

(Date of earliest event reported)

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Delaware

(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)

001-37501

80-0848819

(Commission File Number)

(IRS Employer Identification No.)

6295 Allentown Boulevard

Suite 1

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

17112

(Address of principal executive offices)

(Zip Code)

(717) 657-2300

(Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of Each Class

Trading Symbol

Name of each exchange on which registered

Common Stock, $0.001 par value

OLLI

The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (17 CFR 230.405) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (17 CFR 240.12b-2).

Emerging growth company ☐

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐.

Item 2.02

Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On March 12, 2026, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report and is incorporated by reference herein.

The information furnished in this Item 2.02 of on this Form 8-K, including the exhibit attached, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.

Item 9.01

Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d) Exhibits.  The following exhibits are filed with this report:

Exhibit No.

Description

99.1

Press Release issued on March 12, 2026 of Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.

104

Cover Page Interactive Data File - the cover page XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document.

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

OLLIE’S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS, INC.

By:

/s/ Robert Helm

Name:

Robert Helm

Title:

Executive Vice President and

Chief Financial Officer

Date: March 12, 2026

EXHIBIT INDEX

Exhibit No.

Description

99.1

Press Release issued on March 12, 2026 of Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.

104

Cover Page Interactive Data File - the cover page XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document.

About Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. (OLLI) Earnings

This page provides Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. (OLLI) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on OLLI's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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