Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns
1-Day Prediction
-4.51%
$36.38
0% positive prob.
5-Day Prediction
-6.40%
$35.66
0% positive prob.
20-Day Prediction
-3.51%
$36.76
0% positive prob.
| Quarter | Signal | 1D Return | 5D Return | 20D Return | Confidence | Actual 5D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | SELL | -4.51% | -6.40% | -3.51% | 100.0% | Pending |
| Q2 2026 | SELL | -5.04% | -7.29% | -3.62% | 100.0% | Pending |
| Q1 2026 | SELL | -4.85% | -7.52% | -3.21% | 100.0% | -5.87% |
| Q4 2025 | SELL | -4.85% | -7.51% | -3.21% | 99.7% | +7.37% |
SEC 8-K filings with transcript text
Oct 28, 2026 · 100% conf.
1D
-4.51%
$36.38
Act: +1.26%
5D
-6.40%
$35.66
20D
-3.51%
$36.76
5 ex99-1_8k102826.htm
Orange County Bancorp, Inc. Announces Record Third Quarter Earnings:
Net Income increased $2.5 million, or 24.6%, to $12.5 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, from $10.0 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, marking record third quarter earnings
Net Interest Margin increased 19 basis points, or 4.4%, to 4.45% for the three months ended September 30, 2026, from 4.26% for the three months ended September 30, 2025
Total Deposits increased $56.0 million, or 2.4%, to $2.4 billion at September 30, 2026, from $2.3 billion at September 30, 2025
Total Loans, including loans held-for-sale, were $2.0 billion at September 30, 2026, a comparable level from December 31, 2025 and up from $1.9 billion at September 30, 2025
Earnings per share increased $0.18 per share, or 24.2%, to $0.93 per share for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, from $0.75 per share for the quarter ended September 30, 2025
Book value per share grew $1.77, or 8.3%, to $23.04 at September 30, 2026, from $21.27 at December 31, 2025
MIDDLETOWN, N.Y., October 28, 2026 – Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company” - Nasdaq: OBT), parent company of Orange Bank & Trust Co. (the “Bank”) and Orange Investment Advisors, Inc. (“OIA”), today announced net income of $12.5 million, or $0.93 per basic and diluted share, for the three months ended September 30, 2026. This compares with net income of $10.0 million, or $0.75 per basic and diluted share, for the three months ended September 30, 2025. The increase in earnings per share, basic and diluted, was due primarily to an increase in net interest income, which included a reduction in borrowing costs due to deposit growth, and reduction in provision for credit losses, partially offset by a decrease in noninterest income, resulting from the recognition of bank owned life insurance income in the prior year period. For the nine months ended September 30, 2026, net income reached $37.4 million, or $2.80 per basic and diluted share, as compared to $29.2 million, or $2.39 per basic and diluted share, for the nine months ended September 30, 2025.
Book value per share grew $1.77, or 8.3%, from $21.27 at December 31, 2025 to $23.04 at September 30, 2026. Tangible book value per share grew $1.79, or 8.6%, from $20.83 at December 31, 2025 to $22.62 at September 30, 2026 (see “Non-GAAP Financial Measure Reconciliation” below for additional detail). These increases were due primarily to earnings growth and included the reclassification of treatment of equity compensation during the nine months ended September 30, 2026, as well as reversal of the valuation allowance associated with the deferred tax asset offset by the valuation loss on loans held-for-sale.
“I am very pleased to announce record earnings for the third quarter led by strong deposit and loan growth, and further expansion in net interest margin”, said Orange County Bancorp President and CEO Michael Gilfeather. “This marks our third consecutive quarter of record earnings in 2026, a fact made particularly impressive by the challenging macro-economic environment in which we are operating.”
“For the quarter ended September 30, 2026, the Company earned $12.5 million, up $2.5 million, or 24.6%, from the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The increase reflects greater interest income from our loan portfolio, bolstered by an additional $31.2 million of loan growth during the period. This increased our total loan portfolio to $2.0 billion at quarter end from $1.9 billion at September 30, 2025. The average yield of the loan portfolio during the period was 6.19%, up 16 basis points, or 2.7%, from 6.03% the prior quarter, and up six basis points, or 1%, from 6.13% the same quarter last year. The reduction of our home equity loan portfolio is consistent with our longstanding, strategic, business-bank focus. As stated last quarter, we also plan to reduce our residential loan exposure, with a goal of exiting those loans by year end. In further streamlining and consolidating our operational focus, as well as generating incremental liquidity, we believe these sales better position the Bank to manage interest rate and other risks.
Our deliberate effort to lower deposit costs through organic growth was successful in Q3. Total Deposits grew $56.0 million, or 2.4%, to $2.4 billion at September 30, 2026, from $2.3 billion at September 30, 2025. Much of this growth came in the form of core deposits, enabling us to further reduce our use of higher cost, broker-sourced deposits and borrowings. Success in this effort resulted in an average cost of deposits for the quarter of 0.96%, a level comparable to the prior quarter, but down 16 basis points, or 14.6%, from 1.12% during the same quarter last year. Our low-cost deposit base has long been and remains a key competitive operating advantage of the Bank.
Continued growth of our loan and deposit portfolios, along with an increase in lo
Jul 28, 2026 · 100% conf.
1D
-5.04%
$36.92
Act: -0.80%
5D
-7.29%
$36.05
20D
-3.62%
$37.47
5 ex99-1_8k072826.htm
Orange County Bancorp, Inc. Announces Record Second Quarter Earnings:
Net Income increased $3.2 million, or 30.6%, to $13.7 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, from $10.5 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, marking record second quarter earnings
Net Interest Margin increased 38 basis points, or 9.4%, to 4.44% for the three months ended June 30, 2026, from 4.06% for the three months ended June 30, 2025
Total Deposits increased $120.8 million, or 5.2%, to $2.4 billion at June 30, 2026, from $2.3 billion at June 30, 2025
Total Loans, including loans held-for-sale, were approximately $2.0 billion at June 30, 2026, from a comparable level at December 31, 2025 and $1.9 billion at June 30, 2025
Earnings per share increased $0.15 per share, or 17.2%, to $1.02 per share for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 from $0.87 per share for the quarter ended June 30, 2025
Book value per share grew $1.60, or 7.5%, to $22.87 at June 30, 2026, from $21.27 at December 31, 2025
MIDDLETOWN, N.Y., July 28, 2026 – Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company” - Nasdaq: OBT), parent company of Orange Bank & Trust Co. (the “Bank”) and Orange Investment Advisors, Inc. (“OIA”), today announced net income of $13.7 million, or $1.02 per basic and diluted share, for the three months ended June 30, 2026. This compares with net income of $10.5 million, or $0.87 per basic and diluted share, for the three months ended June 30, 2025. The increase in earnings per share, basic and diluted, was due primarily to an increase in net interest income, a one-time reduction in deferred tax valuation allowance, and a reduction in provision for credit losses partially offset by a decrease in noninterest income, resulting from the recognition of a valuation loss related to loans held-for-sale, during the period. For the six months ended June 30, 2026, net income reached $24.9 million, or $1.87 per basic and diluted share, as compared to $19.2 million, or $1.64 per basic and diluted share, for the six months ended June 30, 2025.
Book value per share grew $1.60, or 7.5%, from $21.27 at December 31, 2025 to $22.87 at June 30, 2026. Tangible book value per share grew $1.61, or 7.7%, from $20.83 at December 31, 2025 to $22.44 at June 30, 2026 (see “Non-GAAP Financial Measure Reconciliation” below for additional detail). These increases were due primarily to earnings growth and included the reclassification of treatment of equity compensation during the six months ended June 30, 2026, as well as reversal of the valuation allowance associated with the deferred tax asset offset by the valuation loss on loans held-for-sale.
“I am pleased to announce record second quarter financial results for the Bank led by continued growth of our low-cost deposit base and strength in net interest margin,” said Orange County Bancorp President and CEO Michael Gilfeather. “Our success reflects the unrelenting focus of our organization and ability to navigate challenging financial conditions as we continue to execute our strategic plan.”
“For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, the Company earned $13.7 million, an increase of $3.2 million, or 30.6%, over the same quarter last year. Our results reflect strong overall performance, but also a meaningful contribution from a $5.3 million valuation allowance reversal related to our deferred tax asset largely offset by a $4.8 million fair value adjustment to loans held-for-sale. Adjusted for these items, the Company’s net income would have been approximately $12.6 million *. Total loans, including those held-for-sale, increased $23.6 million at quarter end, holding our total loan portfolio relatively flat at $2.0 billion versus year-end 2025. The trajectory of our loan growth has been impacted by unanticipated payoffs aggregating $81.1 million during the first half of 2026 as compared to $28.5 million during the same period last year. Our new loan pipeline remains robust, and we would anticipate these returning to more normal growth levels. The average yield on our loan portfolio was 6.03% for the second quarter of 2026, up 3 basis points from the same period last year.
Total deposit growth continued its favorable trend and remains a central element of our success - increasing $120.8 million, or 5.2%, to $2.4 billion at June 30, 2026 from $2.3 billion at December 31, 2025. The bulk of this growth came in core deposits, enabling us to nearly eliminate our use of higher cost broker-sourced deposits or borrowings. Success in our strategic efforts to attract low cost, organically – sourced deposits resulted in an average cost of deposits for the current quarter of 0.96%, down 35 basis points, or 26.6% from Q2 2025 and down 9 basis points or 8.2% versus Q1 2026. This is and will remain a key competitive strength of the Bank.
Not surprisingly, reduced deposit costs and increased loan yields resulted in a 38-basis point improvement in net interest margin from 4.06%
Apr 28, 2026 · 100% conf.
1D
-4.85%
$34.51
Act: -6.15%
5D
-7.52%
$33.54
Act: -5.87%
20D
-3.21%
$35.10
Act: -6.07%
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This page provides Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.
Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on OBT's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.