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AI Earnings Predictions for NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc. (NREF)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+1.82%

$17.91

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+3.46%

$18.20

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+7.25%

$18.87

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $17.59 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Aug 6, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+1.82%

$17.91

Act: +3.30%

5D

+3.46%

$18.20

Act: -4.09%

20D

+7.25%

$18.87

Price: $17.59 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001193125-26-336594

EX-99.1

2 nref-ex99_1.htm

EX-99.1

EX-99.1

EXHIBIT 99.1

Contact:

Kristen Griffith

Investor Relations

IR@nexpoint.com

Media: Comms@nexpoint.com

NREF Announces Second Quarter 2026 Results, Provides Third Quarter 2026 Guidance

Dallas, TX, August 6, 2026 – NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. ("NREF" or the "Company") (NYSE: NREF) today reported its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.

NREF reported net income attributable to common stockholders of $5.4 million, or $0.29 per diluted share1, for the three months ended June 30, 2026.

NREF reported cash available for distribution2 of $13.9 million, or $0.58 per diluted common share2, for the three months ended June 30, 2026.

“NREF's earnings this quarter reaffirm the consistency our investors have come to rely on, even as broader credit conditions remain unsettled. That stability stems from a portfolio built around life sciences, self-storage, multifamily, and industrial — sectors we selected for their structural, cycle-resistant demand rather than short-term momentum. As rate uncertainty causes many traditional lenders to pull back, we are able to underwrite new opportunities from a position of strength, reinforcing the durability of our earnings and the steady growth of book value. Our focus remains on translating that discipline into long-term, transparent value creation for our shareholders," said Matthew McGraner, Chief Investment Officer.

Second Quarter 2026 Highlights

• Outstanding total portfolio of $1.1 billion, composed of 85 investments3

• Single-family rental (“SFR”), multifamily, life sciences, self-storage, marinas, and industrial represent 15.1%, 37.6%, 39.4%, 4.2%, 1.6% and 2.1% of the Company’s investment portfolio, respectively as of June 30, 2026

• Weighted-average loan to value (“LTV”)4 and debt service coverage ratio (“DSCR”) on our senior loans, CMBS, CMBS I/O strips, preferred equity, and mezzanine investments are 63.4% and 1.39x3, respectively

• During the quarter, the Company funded $7.3MM on a loan that pays a monthly coupon of SOFR + 900 bps.

• The Company funded $20.2MM on a loan that pays a monthly coupon of 14.0%.

• The Company funded $42.6MM on a loan that pays a monthly coupon of 14.0%.

• During the quarter, the Company raised $22.6MM in gross proceeds from the Series C preferred stock offering.

• On July 27, 2026 NREF announced a third quarter dividend of $0.50 per common share

1 Weighted-average shares outstanding - diluted assumes vesting of all outstanding unvested restricted stock units and the conversion of all redeemable non-controlling interests.

2 Earnings available for distribution (“EAD”), cash available for distribution (“CAD”) and adjusted weighted average common shares outstanding - diluted are non-GAAP measures. For a discussion of why we consider these non-GAAP measures useful and reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures, see the “Reconciliations of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” and “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” sections of this release.

3 As of June 30, 2026; and excluding the common stock, revolving credit facility investments and the Alexander at the District, Ridgeview Place and Mag & May multifamily properties. CMBS B-Pieces reflected on an unconsolidated basis.

4 Loan to value is generally based on the initial loan amount divided by the as-is appraised value as of the date the loan was originated or by the current principal amount as of the date of the most recent as-is appraised value. For our CMBS B-Pieces, LTV is based on the weighted-average LTV of the underlying loan pool.

5 Net income attributable to common stockholders in 3Q 2026 is estimated to be between $7.4 million and $9.8 million. See reconciliations below.

EXHIBIT 99.1

Looking Ahead: Third Quarter 2026 Guidance

Earnings Available for Distribution2

• 3Q 2026 EAD per diluted common share guidance is $0.435 at the midpoint

Low

Mid

High

For the Three Months Ended

September 30, 2026

September 30, 2026

September 30, 2026

Net income

$

18,512

$

19,694

$

20,876

Net (income) loss attributable to Series A preferred stockholders

(874

)

(874

)

(874

)

Net (income) loss attributable to Series B preferred stockholders

(8,984

)

(8,984

)

(8,984

)

Net (income) loss attributable to Series C preferred stockholders

(1,210

)

(1,210

)

(1,210

)

Net income attributable to common stockholders

7,444

8,626

9,808

Adjustments:

Amortization of stock-based compensation

1,763

1,763

1,763

EAD

$

9,207

$

10,389

$

11,571

Weighted average common shares outstanding - basic

18,848

18,848

18,848

Weighted average common shares outstanding - diluted

55,161

55,161

55,161

Shares attributable to potential redemption of Series B preferred

(27,361

)

(27,361

)

(27,361

)

Shares attributable to potential redemption of Series C preferred

(3,764

)

(3,764

)

(3,764

)

Adjusted weighted average common shares outstanding - diluted (1)

24,036

24,036

24,036

EPS per Weighted Average Sha

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K

Apr 30, 2026

0001193125-26-194015

EX-99.1

2 nref-ex99_1.htm

EX-99.1

EX-99.1

EXHIBIT 99.1

Contact:

Kristen Griffith

Investor Relations

IR@nexpoint.com

Media: pro-nexpoint@prosek.com

NREF Announces First Quarter 2026 Results, Provides Second Quarter 2026 Guidance

Dallas, TX, Thursday, April 30, 2026 – NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. ("NREF" or the "Company") (NYSE: NREF) today reported its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026.

NREF reported net income attributable to common stockholders of $10.0 million, or $0.42 per diluted share1, for the three months ended March 31, 2026.

NREF reported cash available for distribution2 of $13.5 million, or $0.58 per diluted common share2, for the three months ended March 31, 2026.

“NREF continues to deliver consistent earnings by maintaining a disciplined, credit-first approach to capital deployment across our core verticals. The strength of our portfolio reflects the conviction behind our sector selection — each representing long-term, structurally supported demand that we believe will continue to generate durable, risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders. We are focused on deepening our presence in these markets, staying opportunistic where dislocations present compelling entry points, and ensuring that our investors have a transparent, predictable view of how we are protecting and growing book value over time,” said Matthew McGraner, Chief Investment Officer.

First Quarter 2026 Highlights

• Outstanding total portfolio of $1.1 billion, composed of 90 investments3

• Single-family rental (“SFR”), multifamily, life sciences, self-storage, marinas, and industrial represent 17.1%, 39.4%, 35.9%, 3.9%, 1.6% and 2.1% of the Company’s investment portfolio, respectively as of March 31, 2026

• Weighted-average loan to value (“LTV”)4 and debt service coverage ratio (“DSCR”) on our senior loans, CMBS, CMBS I/O strips, preferred equity, and mezzanine investments are 59.9% and 1.32x3, respectively

• During the quarter, the Company funded $7.7MM on a loan that pays a monthly coupon of SOFR + 900 bps.

• The Company also funded $23.0MM on a loan that pay a monthly coupon of SOFR + 1,250 bps.

• During the quarter, the Company received $25.1MM from a CMBS Re-REMIC.

• During the quarter, the Company raised $20.1MM in gross proceeds from the Series C preferred stock offering.

• On April 28, 2026 NREF announced a second quarter dividend of $0.50 per common share

1 Weighted-average shares outstanding - diluted assumes vesting of all outstanding unvested restricted stock units and the conversion of all redeemable non-controlling interests.

2 Earnings available for distribution (“EAD”), cash available for distribution (“CAD”) and adjusted weighted average common shares outstanding - diluted are non-GAAP measures. For a discussion of why we consider these non-GAAP measures useful and reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures, see the “Reconciliations of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” and “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” sections of this release.

3 As of March 31, 2026; and excluding the common stock, revolving credit facility investments and the Alexander at the District and Mag & May multifamily properties. CMBS B-Pieces reflected on an unconsolidated basis.

4 Loan to value is generally based on the initial loan amount divided by the as-is appraised value as of the date the loan was originated or by the current principal amount as of the date of the most recent as-is appraised value. For our CMBS B-Pieces, LTV is based on the weighted-average LTV of the underlying loan pool.

5 Net income attributable to common stockholders in 2Q 2026 is estimated to be between $7.5 million and $9.8 million. See reconciliations below.

EXHIBIT 99.1

Looking Ahead: Second Quarter 2026 Guidance

Earnings Available for Distribution2

• 2Q 2026 EAD per diluted common share guidance is $0.435 at the midpoint

Low

Mid

High

For the Three Months Ended

June 30, 2026

June 30, 2026

June 30, 2026

Net income

$

18,210

$

19,372

$

20,534

Net (income) loss attributable to Series A preferred stockholders

(874

)

(874

)

(874

)

Net (income) loss attributable to Series B preferred stockholders

(9,030

)

(9,030

)

(9,030

)

Net (income) loss attributable to Series C preferred stockholders

(803

)

(803

)

(803

)

Net income attributable to common stockholders

7,503

8,665

9,827

Adjustments:

Amortization of stock-based compensation

1,656

1,656

1,656

EAD

$

9,159

$

10,321

$

11,483

Weighted average common shares outstanding - basic

18,605

18,605

18,605

Weighted average common shares outstanding - diluted

53,799

53,799

53,799

Shares attributable to potential redemption of Series B preferred

(27,451

)

(27,451

)

(27,451

)

Shares attributable to potential redemption of Series C preferred

(2,524

)

(2,524

)

(2,524

)

Adjusted weighted average common shares outstanding - diluted (1)

23,824

23,824

23,824

EPS per Weighted Average Share - diluted

$

0.32

$

0.34

$

0.37

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K

Feb 26, 2026

0001193125-26-073197

EX-99.1

2 nref-ex99_1.htm

EX-99.1

EX-99.1

EXHIBIT 99.1

Contact:

Kristen Griffith

Investor Relations

IR@nexpoint.com

Media: pro-nexpoint@prosek.com

NREF Announces Fourth Quarter 2025 Results, Provides First Quarter 2026 Guidance

Dallas, TX, Thursday, February 26, 2026 – NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. ("NREF" or the "Company") (NYSE: NREF) today reported its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025.

NREF reported net income attributable to common stockholders of $13.6 million, or 0.52 per diluted share1, for the three months ended December 31, 2025.

NREF reported cash available for distribution2 of $12.2 million, or $0.53 per diluted common share2, for three months ended December 31, 2025.

“NREF continues to produce consistent earnings while strategically deploying capital across a diversified portfolio of high-quality real assets. Our disciplined approach to capital allocation—spanning life sciences, multifamily, self-storage, and industrial—reflects delivering durable, risk-adjusted returns to our shareholders. As we expand into sectors underpinned by strong demographic and structural demand trends, we remain focused on positioning NREF to capitalize on market dislocations, grow book value, and provide investors with a clear and consistent view of our earnings trajectory and long-term value creation strategy,” said Matthew McGraner, Chief Investment Officer.

Fourth Quarter 2025 Highlights

• Outstanding total portfolio of $1.2 billion, composed of 92 investments3

• Single-family rental (“SFR”), multifamily, life sciences, self-storage, marinas, and industrial represent 16.6%, 47.0%, 29.5%, 2.4%, 2.6% and 1.9% of the Company’s investment portfolio, respectively as of December 31, 2025

• Weighted-average loan to value (“LTV”)4 and debt service coverage ratio (“DSCR”) on our senior loans, CMBS, CMBS I/O strips, preferred equity, and mezzanine investments are 63.6% and 1.24x3, respectively

• During the quarter, the Company funded $5.7MM on a loan that pays a monthly coupon of SOFR + 900 bps.

• The Company also funded a combined $17.4MM on two marina loans that pay a monthly coupon of 13.0%.

• During the quarter, the Company funded $22.5MM on a loan that pays a monthly coupon of 11.0%.

• During the quarter, the Company raised $60.5MM in gross proceeds from the Series B preferred stock offering.

• On February 24, 2026 NREF announced a first quarter dividend of $0.50 per common share

1 Weighted-average shares outstanding - diluted assumes vesting of all outstanding unvested restricted stock units and the conversion of all redeemable non-controlling interests.

2 Earnings available for distribution (“EAD”), cash available for distribution (“CAD”) and adjusted weighted average common shares outstanding - diluted are non-GAAP measures. For a discussion of why we consider these non-GAAP measures useful and reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures, see the “Reconciliations of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” and “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” sections of this release.

3 As of December 31, 2025; and excluding the common stock, revolving credit facility investments, the remaining net assets related to the Hudson Montford multifamily property after its sale and the Alexander at the District and Mag & May multifamily properties. CMBS B-Pieces reflected on an unconsolidated basis.

4 Loan to value is generally based on the initial loan amount divided by the as-is appraised value as of the date the loan was originated or by the current principal amount as of the date of the most recent as-is appraised value. For our CMBS B-Pieces, LTV is based on the weighted-average LTV of the underlying loan pool.

5 Net income attributable to common stockholders in 1Q 2026 is estimated to be between $6.5 million and $8.8 million. See reconciliations below.

2

EXHIBIT 99.1

Looking Ahead: First Quarter 2026 Guidance

Earnings Available for Distribution2

• 1Q 2026 EAD per diluted common share guidance is $0.405 at the midpoint

Low

Mid

High

For the three months ended

March 31, 2026

March 31, 2026

March 31, 2026

Net income

$

16,812

$

17,900

$

19,111

Net (income) loss attributable to Series A preferred stockholders

(874

)

(874

)

(874

)

Net (income) loss attributable to Series B preferred stockholders

(9,105

)

(9,105

)

(9,105

)

Net (income) loss attributable to Series C preferred stockholders

(320

)

(320

)

(320

)

Net income attributable to common stockholders

6,513

7,601

8,812

Adjustments

Amortization of stock-based compensation

1,489

1,489

1,489

EAD

$

8,002

$

9,090

$

10,301

Weighted average common shares outstanding - basic

17,765

17,765

17,765

Weighted average common shares outstanding - diluted

50,955

50,955

50,955

Shares attributable to potential redemption of Series B preferred

(27,983

)

(27,983

)

(27,983

)

Shares attributable to potential redemption of Series C preferred

(62

)

(62

)

(62

)

Adjusted weighted average common sha

About NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc. (NREF) Earnings

This page provides NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc. (NREF) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on NREF's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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