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AI Earnings Predictions for Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-5.17%

$64.76

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-5.90%

$64.25

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-12.93%

$59.45

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $68.28 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q3 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q3 2026 SELL -5.17% -5.90% -12.93% 100.0% Pending
Q2 2026 SELL -4.93% -5.80% -15.29% 100.0% Pending
Q4 2025 SELL -4.40% -4.96% -15.33% 100.0% -2.78%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q3

Q3 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Oct 20, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-5.17%

$64.76

Act: -4.62%

5D

-5.90%

$64.25

20D

-12.93%

$59.45

Price: $68.28 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001065280-26-000290

EX-99.1

2 ex991_q326.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

October 20, 2026

Fellow shareholders,

•We delivered our Q3 forecast and expect to deliver on our full year 2026 guidance.

◦Q3 revenue grew 12% year over year (11% on a F/X neutral basis1) to $12.9B, consistent with our forecast. Operating margin was 34.6%, up from 28.2% in Q3’25 and ahead of our forecast primarily due to the timing of expenses.

◦For 2026, we expect revenue of $51.1B (+13% year over year) and an operating margin of 31.5%.

•The core of our service is delivering differentiated, exclusive, professionally produced series, films and live events. Q3 highlights include The Last House, Facing El Chapo, Death of the Pastor’s Wife, our NFL Game from Melbourne, and a very successful slate in India.

•We’ll continue to expand our entertainment offering through licensing and new ways to bring more third-party content to our service, like our TF1 partnership in France. Our audience, which is approaching one billion people, and our best-in-class product capabilities, make us great partners for studios, networks and creative talent.

•Member response to our 2026 price changes is consistent with prior adjustments and our expectations, an indicator that our engagement - which encompasses quantity, quality and variety of viewing - remains healthy and that we continue to deliver strong value to members.

•We’ll close out 2026 with an exciting slate including The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth, limited series The Murder of JonBenét Ramsey, starring Melissa McCarthy and Clive Owen, new seasons of The Diplomat, Nobody Wants This and Lupin, the series finale of Emily in Paris, three NFL games on Thanksgiving Eve and Christmas Day, and the Tyson Fury vs. Anthony Joshua fight.

Our summary results, and forecast for Q4, are below.

(in millions except per share data)Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26 Forecast

Revenue$11,510 $12,051 $12,250 $12,560 $12,874 $13,442

Y/Y % Growth17.2 %17.6 %16.2 %13.4 %11.8 %11.5 %

Operating Income$3,248 $2,957 $3,957 $4,193 $4,459 $3,500

Operating Margin28.2 %24.5 %32.3 %33.4 %34.6 %26.0 %

Net Income$2,547 $2,419 $5,283 $3,401 $3,664 $2,787

Diluted EPS$0.59 $0.56 $1.23 $0.80 $0.87 $0.67

Net cash provided by operating activities$2,825 $2,112 $5,290 $1,744 $3,162

Free Cash Flow$2,660 $1,872 $5,094 $1,525 $2,884

Shares (FD)4,340 4,317 4,298 4,261 4,195


1 Excluding the year over year effect of foreign exchange rate movements and the impact of hedging gains/losses realized as revenues. Assumes foreign exchange rates remained constant with foreign exchange rates from each of the corresponding months of the prior-year period.

1

Q3 Results and Forecast

Revenue in Q3 grew 12% year over year (+11% on a foreign exchange (F/X) neutral basis), and was in-line with our forecast. In Q3, revenue growth was driven primarily by subscription revenue, reflecting increases in memberships and pricing, growth in advertising revenue and a favorable impact from F/X rates, net of hedging. Membership growth benefited from continued, healthy retention in every region; globally and in the US, churn improved year-over-year and was better than forecast.

Q3’26 operating income totaled $4.5B (+37% year over year) and operating margin of 34.6% was up versus 28.2% in Q3’25. Both Q3 operating income and margin were ahead of forecast due primarily to the timing of expenses and the slight upside in revenue. As a result, diluted EPS for the quarter amounted to $0.87 vs. $0.59 in Q3’25 (+49% year over year).

As a reminder, the guidance we provide is our actual internal forecast at the time we report and we strive for accuracy. Our primary financial metrics are revenue for growth and operating margin for profitability. Our goal is to sustain healthy revenue growth, expand operating profit and margin, and deliver growing free cash flow.

In Q4, we expect revenue of $13.4 billion, which represents year over year growth of 12% (or 11% F/X neutral) driven by growth in memberships, pricing, and ad revenue. We project a Q4 operating margin of 26.0% which includes ~120 basis points negative impact associated with our recently announced headcount reductions, and compares with 24.5% in the year ago quarter. These organizational changes enable us to continue to aggressively invest in high impact areas to improve our service, and drive growth and innovation.

Our guidance for Q4 means that for the full year 2026 we expect revenue of $51.1B, or growth of 13% (+12% on a F/X neutral basis). This is 0.2% below the mid-point of our prior 2026 revenue forecast range - while subscription revenue growth has outperformed our expectations, we currently expect 2026 ad revenue of ~$2.7B vs. approximately $3B previously (due to slightly slower than expected rollout of some ad product capabilities). We anticipate an operating margin of 31.5% for 2026 (31.4% based on F/X rates as of January 1, 2026) vs. 29.5% in 2025. Our updated 2026 mar

2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Jul 16, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-4.93%

$70.19

Act: -7.10%

5D

-5.80%

$69.55

20D

-15.29%

$62.54

Price: $73.83 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001065280-26-000211

EX-99.1

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EX-99.1

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Exhibit 99.1

July 16, 2026

Fellow shareholders,

•Our financial performance remains solid and we’re on track to meet our objectives for the year:

◦Q2 revenue grew 13% year over year (+12% on a FX-neutral basis1) to $12.6B, and operating margin was 33%. Both were in-line with our guidance.

◦For 2026, we’ve narrowed our forecasted revenue range to $51.0-$51.4B and continue to forecast an operating margin of 31.5%, both consistent with our prior guidance.

•We’re delivering increasing value to our members; engagement is healthy, reflecting the quality, quantity, and variety of our offering:

◦Harlan Coben’s I Will Find You is our most viewed new original series debut in 2026 and Swapped is on its way to becoming our second most viewed original animated film ever.

◦View hours grew +2% in H1’26 vs. +1.5% growth in 2025, despite the competitive impact of the Winter Olympics and the World Cup this year.

◦To better satisfy members, we’re continuing to expand the variety of our entertainment offering with video podcasts, creators like Danny Go! and Salish & Jordan Matter, and cloud TV games.

•The results of our recent price changes are consistent with prior changes and our expectations.

•We are leveraging AI to provide a more personalized, immersive and interactive experience for members, enhance ads capabilities for brands, and improve the quality of our series and films.

•The entertainment industry remains dynamic and competitive. We aim to stay ahead by executing against our three areas of focus: delivering more entertainment value, leveraging technology to improve every aspect of our service, and improving monetization.

Our summary results, and forecast for Q3, are below.

(in millions except per share data)Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26 Forecast

Revenue$11,079 $11,510 $12,051 $12,250 $12,560 $12,860

Y/Y % Growth15.9 %17.2 %17.6 %16.2 %13.4 %11.7 %

Operating Income$3,775 $3,248 $2,957 $3,957 $4,193 $4,268

Operating Margin34.1 %28.2 %24.5 %32.3 %33.4 %33.2 %

Net Income$3,125 $2,547 $2,419 $5,283 $3,401 $3,452

Diluted EPS$0.72 $0.59 $0.56 $1.23 $0.80 $0.82

Net cash provided by operating activities$2,423 $2,825 $2,112 $5,290 $1,744

Free Cash Flow$2,267 $2,660 $1,872 $5,094 $1,525

Shares (FD)4,349 4,340 4,317 4,298 4,261


1 Excluding the year over year effect of foreign exchange rate movements and the impact of hedging gains/losses realized as revenues. Assumes foreign exchange rates remained constant with foreign exchange rates from each of the corresponding months of the prior-year period.

1

Q2 Results and Forecast

Q2 revenue of $12.6B was in-line with forecast and grew 13% year over year (+12% on a foreign exchange (F/X) neutral basis), driven primarily by membership growth, pricing and increased ad revenue. We delivered double digit revenue growth in all regions, surpassing the quarterly revenue mark of $4.0B in EMEA and $1.5B in both LATAM and APAC. In UCAN, Q2 revenue growth of 10% reflects only a partial quarter impact from our recent price change, which has gone well and as expected.

Operating income in Q2 was $4.2B, up 11% year over year, and operating margin was 33.4% versus 34.1% in Q2’25. Q2 operating income and margin were slightly ahead of forecast due to the timing of expenses. As we noted in previous letters, operating income in Q2 grew slower than revenue because our content amortization growth is higher in the first half of the year; we continue to expect content amortization to grow slower in the second half of the year and to increase ~10% for 2026. Diluted EPS for the quarter amounted to $0.80 vs. $0.72 in Q2’25 (+11% year over year), slightly above our forecast.

As a reminder, the guidance we provide is our actual internal forecast at the time we report and we strive for accuracy. Our primary financial metrics are revenue for growth and operating margin for profitability. Our goal is to sustain healthy revenue growth, expand operating profit and margin, and deliver growing free cash flow.

For Q3, we expect revenue growth of 12% (or 11% F/X neutral) driven by growth in memberships, pricing, and ad revenue. We project an operating margin of 33.2% compared with 28.2% in the year ago quarter.

Our 2026 outlook is consistent with our prior forecast: we are narrowing our revenue forecast to $51.0-$51.4B, which represents 13%-14% growth (~12% F/X neutral), driven by growth in memberships and pricing, and a projected rough doubling of our ads revenue to approximately $3 billion. We continue to anticipate an operating margin of 31.5% for 2026 both on a reported basis and based on F/X rates as of January 1, 2026 vs. 29.5% in 2025. Our forecast implies annual operating income growth of 20%+ for 2026.

Our Focus

As we outlined in our last letter, we have three main areas of focus:

First, delivering more entertainment value.

We want to win the most valuable moments of truth and thrill our members. We’

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K

Apr 16, 2026

0001065280-26-000137

EX-99.1

2 ex991_q126.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

April 16, 2026

Fellow shareholders,

•Q1 revenue grew 16% year over year (+14% on a FX-neutral basis1) and operating income grew 18%. Both were ahead of our guidance due to slightly higher-than-planned subscription revenue. We continue to project 2026 revenue of $50.7-$51.7B and an operating margin of 31.5%.

•We have a clear strategy and strong conviction in our long runway of growth, with three areas of focus to achieve our goals:

◦Delivering more entertainment value to members: Our primary internal quality engagement metric hit an all time high in Q1 and we continue to expand our offering with video podcasts, our first regional live event — the World Baseball Classic, which broke viewing records in Japan — and, in early April, a new standalone gaming app for kids.

◦Leveraging technology to improve our service: We are continually expanding how we can leverage AI to improve the member experience, and in Q1 we acquired InterPositive to provide our creators with a broader set of GenAI tools. We are also redesigning our mobile experience, including the launch of vertical video at the end of the month.

◦Improving monetization: Our recent price changes have gone well, reflecting the strong value we provide members and our advertising revenue remains on track to reach $3B in 2026, up 2x year-over-year.

•The entertainment business remains extraordinarily dynamic and competitive. We’re in a strong position and are working hard to build on our advantages. Over the years, we’ve learned that the best thing we can do is to stay focused and improve faster than the competition.

Our summary results, and forecast for Q2, are below.

(in millions except per share data)Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26 Forecast

Revenue$10,543 $11,079 $11,510 $12,051 $12,250 $12,574

Y/Y % Growth12.5 %15.9 %17.2 %17.6 %16.2 %13.5 %

Operating Income$3,347 $3,775 $3,248 $2,957 $3,957 $4,105

Operating Margin31.7 %34.1 %28.2 %24.5 %32.3 %32.6 %

Net Income$2,890 $3,125 $2,547 $2,419 $5,283 $3,327

Diluted EPS$0.66 $0.72 $0.59 $0.56 $1.23 $0.78

Net cash provided by operating activities$2,789 $2,423 $2,825 $2,112 $5,290

Free Cash Flow$2,661 $2,267 $2,660 $1,872 $5,094

Shares (FD)4,370 4,349 4,340 4,317 4,298


1 Excluding the year over year effect of foreign exchange rate movements and the impact of hedging gains/losses realized as revenues. Assumes foreign exchange rates remained constant with foreign exchange rates from each of the corresponding months of the prior-year period.

1

Q1 Results and Forecast

Revenue in Q1 grew 16% year over year (+14% on a foreign exchange (F/X) neutral basis), driven primarily by membership growth, higher pricing, and increased ad revenue. Revenue was slightly above our forecast due to higher than forecasted membership growth and favorable F/X movements net of hedging.

Operating income in Q1 was $4.0B, up 18% year over year, and operating margin of 32.3% was up versus 31.7% in Q1’25. Both operating income and margin were slightly above our forecast owing to higher-than-forecasted revenue.

Diluted EPS for the quarter amounted to $1.23 vs. $0.66 in Q1’25 (+86% year over year), above our forecast of $0.76, driven by higher-than-projected operating income and the $2.8B termination fee related to the Warner Bros. transaction, which was recognized in “interest and other income.”

As a reminder, the guidance we provide is our actual internal forecast at the time we report and we strive for accuracy. Our primary financial metrics are revenue for growth and operating margin for profitability. Our goal is to sustain healthy revenue growth, expand operating profit and margin, and deliver growing free cash flow.

Our full year 2026 guidance is unchanged: we forecast 2026 revenue of $50.7B-$51.7B, which represents 12%-14% growth (11%-13% F/X neutral), driven by continued healthy membership growth, pricing and a projected rough doubling of our ads revenue. Similarly, we’re still targeting an operating margin of 31.5% for 2026 based on F/X rates as of January 1, 2026 vs. 29.5% in 2025.

For Q2, we expect revenue growth of 13% (or 12% F/X neutral). As we noted in last quarter’s letter, growth in content amortization will be first-half weighted due to the timing of title launches. We expect Q2 to have the highest year-over-year content amortization growth rate in 2026, before decelerating to mid-to-high single digit growth in the second half of the year. As a result, we forecast Q2 operating margin of 32.6% compared with 34.1% in the year ago quarter. We expect year-over-year operating margin growth in Q3 and Q4 in order to deliver our 2026 margin target.

Our Focus

Our mission remains ambitious and unchanged: to entertain the world. No other entertainment company has tried to program at this scale, for this many tastes, cultures, and languages. Warner Bros. would have been a nice accelerant for our strategy, but only at the r

About Netflix Inc. (NFLX) Earnings

This page provides Netflix Inc. (NFLX) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on NFLX's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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