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AI Earnings Predictions for Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+0.86%

$36.35

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+4.15%

$37.54

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+2.34%

$36.88

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $36.04 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q2 2026 BUY +0.86% +4.15% +2.34% 100.0% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL -1.49% -2.04% +7.46% 100.0% -1.21%
Q4 2025 BUY +1.35% +4.96% +2.55% 100.0% +0.89%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Aug 5, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+0.86%

$36.35

Act: -8.32%

5D

+4.15%

$37.54

20D

+2.34%

$36.88

Price: $36.04 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001628280-26-053431

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2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

May 6, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-1.49%

$38.35

Act: -2.03%

5D

-2.04%

$38.14

Act: -1.21%

20D

+7.46%

$41.83

Act: +2.67%

Price: $38.93 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001628280-26-031363

EX-99.1

2 mur-2026q1xex991.htm

EX-99.1

Document

EXHIBIT 99.1

NEWS RELEASE

MURPHY OIL CORPORATION ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER RESULTS

Exceeded Upper End of Guidance Range with Production of 174 MBOEPD Spud Chinook #8 Development Well in Gulf of America, Hai Su Vang-3X Appraisal Well in Vietnam, and Bubale-1X Exploration Well in Côte d’Ivoire in Line with Plan

HOUSTON, Texas, May 6, 2026 – Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE: MUR) today announced its financial and operating results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. As a supplement to this release, Murphy has also furnished a Quarterly Stockholder Update.

Unless otherwise noted, the financial and operating highlights and metrics discussed in this commentary exclude noncontrolling interest (NCI).†

(Millions of dollars, except volumes and per share amounts) Three months ended March 31, 2026

Net income attributable to Murphy $53.0

Net income attributable to Murphy per common share - Diluted

$0.37

Adjusted net income from continuing operations attributable to Murphy

(Non-GAAP) 1 $46.5

Adjusted net income from continuing operations per average common share - Diluted (Non-GAAP) 1

$0.32

Adjusted EBITDA attributable to Murphy (Non-GAAP) 1 $382.9

Adjusted EBITDAX attributable to Murphy (Non-GAAP) 1 $465.7

Net cash provided by continuing operations activities$321.2

Operating cash flow excluding working capital adjustments (Non-GAAP) 1 $429.2

Free cash flow (Non-GAAP) 1 $41.4

Oil production, net (BOPD) 2 87,217

Total production, net (BOEPD) 2 174,236

Capital expenditures (CAPEX) 3 $465.0

Lease operating expense from continuing operations ($/BOE) 2 $8.70

1 Please see our schedules of adjusted net income, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDAX and free cash flow for details and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures.

2 Barrels of oil per day (BOPD), barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) and barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOEPD).

3 Capital expenditures for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 excluding acquisition-related costs of $22.7 million were $442.3 million.

1

Highlights for the first quarter include:

•Produced 174,200 BOEPD, exceeding the high end of quarterly guidance due to outperformance in the Eagle Ford Shale and strong uptime in the Gulf of America

•Spud Bubale-1X, the third exploration well in Côte d’Ivoire

•Progressed the Hai Su Vang-3X appraisal well in Vietnam, with results from the full appraisal program anticipated in the third quarter of 2026

•Spud the Chinook #8 well in the Gulf of America, a key development well expected to come online in the second half of this year with a gross initial production rate of 15 MBOEPD

•Brought online 15 wells in the Eagle Ford Shale, with the wells driving a 17 percent improvement in 60-day cumulative oil production compared to wells drilled in 2025

Subsequent to the first quarter:

•Approved development of the Banjo and Cello fields, targeting first production in the fourth quarter of 2027

•In late March, Murphy submitted an offer for four exploration blocks in offshore Cameroon which was accepted subsequent to quarter end; final terms are pending further discussions with the Republic of Cameroon

“During these uncertain times, our strategy is to stay anchored to what we control—disciplined capital allocation, safe and reliable operations, and our long‑cycle projects. In the first quarter, this focus translated into strong execution across our portfolio with meaningful progress at Lac Da Vang in Vietnam, advancement of the high-impact Chinook #8 well in the Gulf of America, and sustained outperformance from our US and Canada onshore programs,” stated Eric M. Hambly, President and Chief Executive Officer.

SHAREHOLDER RETURNS

During the first quarter of 2026, we paid $50 million in quarterly dividends.

While the Company elected not to repurchase shares this quarter, it retained significant flexibility, with $550 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization and 143.3 million shares outstanding as of March 31, 2026.

FINANCIAL POSITION

Murphy had approximately $2.38 billion of liquidity on March 31, 2026, comprised of the undrawn $2.00 billion senior unsecured credit facility and approximately $380 million of cash and cash equivalents, inclusive of NCI. During the quarter, Murphy paid down $100 million of debt under the senior unsecured credit facility.

2

As of March 31, 2026, Murphy’s total debt of $1.55 billion was comprised of long-term, fixed-rate notes, with no drawings under the senior unsecured credit facility. The fixed-rate notes had a weighted average maturity of 8.9 years and a weighted average coupon of 6.2 percent.

ONSHORE OPERATIONS SUMMARY

In the first quarter of 2026, the onshore business produced approximately 106 MBOEPD, which included 36 percent liquids.

Onshore

Oil Production

(BOPD)

Total Production (BOEPD)

Eagle Ford Shale 28,50039,900

Tupper Montney 20061,900

Kaybob Duvernay 2,80

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K BUY

Jan 28, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+1.35%

$31.84

Act: -1.08%

5D

+4.96%

$32.98

Act: +0.89%

20D

+2.55%

$32.22

Act: +1.50%

Price: $31.42 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001628280-26-003863

mur-20260128false000071742300007174232026-01-282026-01-28

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE

SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

Date of report (Date of earliest event reported): January 28, 2026

MURPHY OIL CORPORATION

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Delaware1-859071-0361522 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)(Commission File Number)(I.R.S. Employer Identification No.)

9805 Katy Fwy, Suite G-200 Houston,Texas77024 (Address of principal executive offices, including zip code)

(281) 675-9000

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code Not applicable (Former Name or Former Address, if Changed Since Last Report)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

☐Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each classTrading SymbolName of each exchange on which registered Common Stock, $1.00 Par ValueMURNew York Stock Exchange

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).                                             Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.                                                ☐

Item 2.02.   Results of Operations and Financial Condition The following information is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” On January 28, 2026 Murphy Oil Corporation (“the Company”) issued a news release announcing its financial and operating results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of this news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The Company also issued a quarterly stockholder update as a supplement to the earnings release, which is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.2. The information contained in this report and the exhibits hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless specifically identified as such.

Item 8.01. Other Events On January 28, 2026, the Company issued a news release, attached hereto as Exhibit 99.3, announcing that the Company’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend on the Common Stock of Murphy Oil Corporation of $0.35 per share, or $1.40 per share on an annualized basis. The dividend is payable on March 2, 2026, to stockholders of record as of February 17, 2026.

Item 9.01.  Financial Statements and Exhibits

(d)Exhibits

99.1 Murphy Oil Corporation Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial and Operational Results

99.2 Quarterly Stockholder Update by Murphy Oil Corporation, dated January 28, 2026

99.3 Murphy Oil Corporation Announces Quarterly Dividend, dated January 28, 2026

Signature Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

MURPHY OIL CORPORATION

Date: January 28, 2026

By: /s/ Paul D. Vaughan

Paul D. Vaughan

Vice President and Controller

Exhibit Index

Exhibit No. 99.1 Murphy Oil Corporation Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial and Operational Results

99.2 Quarterly Stockholder Update by Murphy Oil Corporation, dated January 28, 2026

99.3 Murphy Oil Corporation Announces Quarterly Dividend, dated January 28, 2026

104Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

About Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) Earnings

This page provides Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on MUR's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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