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AI Earnings Predictions for Match Group Inc. (MTCH)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-8.23%

$37.81

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-10.55%

$36.85

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-12.06%

$36.23

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $41.20 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q2 2026 SELL -8.23% -10.55% -12.06% 100.0% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL -12.81% -12.79% -13.67% 100.0% -6.08%
Q4 2025 BUY +6.99% +6.42% +9.57% 100.0% +11.08%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Aug 4, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-8.23%

$37.81

Act: -7.40%

5D

-10.55%

$36.85

20D

-12.06%

$36.23

Price: $41.20 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0000891103-26-000128

EX-99.1

2 mtch8-k20260804ex991.htm

PRESS RELEASE DATED AUGUST 4, 2026

MTCH 8-K 2026.08.04 EX99.1

1 Hinge’s European expansion markets are: France, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Spain, Italy,

Netherlands, and Belgium.

2 Source: Sensor Tower. Combined downloads across Apple App Store and Google Play Store. Among all dating apps as defined by Match

Group.

1

Exhibit 99.1

Match Group Announces Second Quarter Results

Tinder Y/Y DAU and MAU Trends Improve as Turnaround Gains Momentum

Hinge Grew Revenue 22% Y/Y as International Expansion Continues

LOS ANGELES, August 4, 2026 - Match Group (NASDAQ: MTCH) today announced financial results

for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, reflecting continued progress in its product-led

turnaround. In Q2, the company delivered revenue in line with expectations and exceeded Adjusted

EBITDA expectations, while improving user engagement at Tinder and delivering strong global user

and revenue growth at Hinge.

At Tinder, product improvements continued to translate into stronger engagement and user trends.

Sparks and Sparks Coverage were broadly stable versus Q1, year-over-year (“Y/Y”) DAU declines

narrowed to 4% in Q2, the best result in 10 quarters, and Y/Y MAU declines improved across each of

Tinder’s top five revenue countries and among women. Trends have further strengthened in July,

supported by ongoing improvements to recommendation algorithms and product innovation. In Q2,

Hinge grew overall revenue 22% Y/Y, with global MAU up 13% Y/Y, and entered six new European

countries and four additional countries in Latin America. Hinge also grew revenue 86% Y/Y across its

European expansion markets1, while maintaining the number one downloaded2 position in aggregate

across those markets in Q2.

“Tinder finally looks and feels like the app young daters want to use. We have improved our

recommendation algorithms, strengthened Trust and Safety, introduced new ways to connect with

features like Double Date and Music Mode, and completed Tinder’s first full rebrand in nearly a

decade, and these changes are driving meaningful gains in metrics like DAU and retention to date.

The next step is winning back singles who’ve drifted away, and reaching those who’ve never tried

Tinder at all. In-person Events, now live in the U.S. and Europe, are an important part of that strategy,”

said CEO Spencer Rascoff. “Meanwhile, Hinge is expanding rapidly in new countries and has become

a global leader in the intentional dating category, and E&E is more streamlined and focused than ever,

with sharper priorities centered on user outcomes and continued product innovation. Match Group is

having a great 2026, positioning us well for 2027.”

3 As defined on page 10 of this press release.

2

Match Group Q2 2026 Financial Highlights

•Total Revenue of $853 million was down 1% Y/Y, down 2% on a foreign exchange (“FX”)

neutral basis (“FXN”), with a 6% Y/Y increase in RPP to $21.13, and a 6% Y/Y decline in

Payers to 13.3 million.

•Net Income of $171 million increased 36% Y/Y, representing a Net Income Margin of 20%.

•Adjusted EBITDA of $331 million increased 14% Y/Y, representing an Adjusted EBITDA

Margin of 39%.

•Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow were $564 million and $527 million, respectively,

year-to-date through June 30, 2026.

•Repurchased 7.3 million of our shares at an average price of $34 per share for a total of $245

million, paid $91 million in dividends, and deployed $92 million of cash toward the net

settlement of employee equity awards to reduce dilution, equating to 81% of Free Cash Flow

year-to-date through June 30, 2026.

•Diluted shares outstanding3 were 237 million as of July 31, 2026, a decrease of 12 million

shares, or 5%, since July 31, 2025.

The following table summarizes total company consolidated financial results for the three months

ended June 30, 2026 and 2025.

Three Months Ended June 30,

(Dollars in millions, except RPP, Payers in thousands)

2026

2025

Y/Y Change

Total Revenue

$853

$864

(1)%

Direct Revenue

$840

$845

(1)%

Net income attributable to Match Group, Inc. shareholders

$171

$125

36%

Net Income Margin

20%

15%

Adjusted EBITDA

$331

$290

14%

Adjusted EBITDA Margin

39%

34%

Payers

13,250

14,093

(6)%

RPP

$21.13

$20.00

6%

3

Other Quarterly Highlights:

•Tinder's product-led turnaround continued to build momentum in Q2. Sparks and Sparks

Coverage were broadly stable versus Q1, both globally and among women, and through July

have moved substantially higher Y/Y following updates to its recommendation algorithms.

•Tinder Events, a new feature that lets users discover and attend local activities

together, expanded into nine additional U.S. and European cities, with plans to reach 26

cities around the world by the end of September. During its pilot in Los Angeles, 71% of

eligible active users ages 18-24 engaged with the in-app Events tab, demonstrating especially

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

May 5, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-12.81%

$32.83

Act: +0.93%

5D

-12.79%

$32.83

Act: -6.08%

20D

-13.67%

$32.50

Act: -8.84%

Price: $37.65 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0000891103-26-000072

EX-99.1

2 mtch8-k20260505ex991.htm

PRESS RELEASE DATED MAY 5, 2026

MTCH 8-K 2026.05.05 EX99.1

1

Exhibit 99.1

Match Group Announces First Quarter Results

Tinder Registrations Returned to Y/Y Growth in March, Marking First Increase in Nearly

Two Years

Hinge Launches Category-First Features and Delivers Strong Revenue Growth

LOS ANGELES, May 5, 2026 - Match Group (NASDAQ: MTCH) today announced financial results for

the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, highlighting meaningful progress in its product-led

transformation. In Q1, the Company exceeded its revenue and Adjusted EBITDA expectations, while

continuing to improve operating discipline and reallocate resources toward its highest-conviction

opportunities.

“Match Group delivered a strong start to the year,” said CEO Spencer Rascoff. “Tinder works better

today than it did before. Our product changes are resonating with Gen Z and driving improvements in

leading indicators, which is a clear signal that Tinder's ecosystem is strengthening. Hinge delivered

another strong quarter and launched category-first features for highly intentioned daters that are

improving outcomes.”

In Q1, Tinder demonstrated measurable progress across key metrics and strengthened user trends,

with global MAU retention and registrations returning to year-over-year growth in March, while Hinge

delivered 28% Y/Y Direct Revenue growth, reflecting continued product momentum and international

expansion. The Company also advanced its ‘1MG’ strategy, further simplifying its organizational

structure and operating more cohesively to enable faster execution and better leverage shared

capabilities across brands.

Rascoff continued, “We are maintaining disciplined execution across the business, driving efficiency

while continuing to invest in our highest-priority growth opportunities. We’ve built a stronger foundation

for the business over the past year, and are well-positioned to drive continued progress throughout

2026 and beyond.”

1 As defined on page 10 of this press release.

2

Match Group Q1 2026 Financial Highlights

•Total Revenue of $864 million was up 4% year-over-year (“Y/Y”), flat on a foreign exchange

(“FX”) neutral basis (“FXN”), driven by a 10% Y/Y increase in RPP to $20.90, partially offset by

a 5% Y/Y decline in Payers to 13.5 million.

•Net Income of $167 million increased 42% Y/Y, representing a Net Income Margin of 19%.

•Adjusted EBITDA of $343 million increased 25% Y/Y, representing an Adjusted EBITDA

Margin of 40%.

•Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow were $194 million and $174 million, respectively.

•Repurchased 2.0 million of our shares at an average price of $31 per share on a trade date

basis for a total of $60 million, paid $44 million in dividends, and deployed $75 million of cash

toward the net settlement of employee equity awards to reduce dilution, equating to 103% of

Free Cash Flow in total.

•Diluted shares outstanding1 were 242 million as of April 30, 2026, a decrease of 13 million

shares, or 5%, since April 30, 2025.

The following table summarizes total company consolidated financial results for the three months

ended March 31, 2026 and 2025.

Three Months Ended March 31,

(Dollars in millions, except RPP, Payers in thousands)

2026

2025

Y/Y Change

Total Revenue

$864

$831

4%

Direct Revenue

$848

$812

4%

Net income attributable to Match Group, Inc. shareholders

$167

$118

42%

Net Income Margin

19%

14%

Adjusted EBITDA

$343

$275

25%

Adjusted EBITDA Margin

40%

33%

Payers

13,521

14,198

(5)%

RPP

$20.90

$19.07

10%

2 Based on a random weighted sample of in-app profile views. Bad actors include accounts that engage in deceptive or harmful behaviors,

including spam, scam attempts, or operating automated fake profiles (bots).

3

Other Quarterly Highlights:

•Tinder’s product-led turnaround is underway, with leading indicators improving. In

March, Sparks (a proxy for real connection) declined just 1% Y/Y, while Sparks Coverage (a

core engagement metric for conversations) increased 6% Y/Y. In March, MAU trends also

improved, down 7% Y/Y, the slowest rate of decline in 31 months, and new user registrations

returned to Y/Y growth. These trends reflect ongoing product enhancements, including

improved recommendations, new features like Astrology Mode and Music Mode, and

continued investment in Trust & Safety.

•Hinge fully rolled out Face Check™ across key markets, reducing interactions with bad

actors2 by 20-30% with minimal impact on revenue.

•Match Group made a significant $100 million investment in Sniffies in April, further

strengthening its investment in the non-heterosexual male segment. As part of this move, the

Company will wind down Archer, its gay male app, which is expected to result in approximately

$10 million in annualized cost savings, including stock-based compensation.

•Match Group continued to simplify its organization, folding MG Asia into its E&E business

unit, which is ex

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K BUY

Feb 3, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+6.99%

$31.29

Act: +4.65%

5D

+6.42%

$31.13

Act: +11.08%

20D

+9.57%

$32.05

Act: +5.30%

Price: $29.25 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0000891103-26-000020

mtch-202602030000891103false00008911032026-02-032026-02-03

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, DC 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 OR 15(d) of The Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): February 3, 2026

MATCH GROUP, INC.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Delaware001-3414859-2712887 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation) (Commission File Number)(IRS Employer Identification No.)

8750 North Central Expressway, Suite 1400 Dallas, TX 75231 (Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (214) 576-9352

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below): ☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)) Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: Title of each classTrading SymbolName of exchange on which registered Common Stock, par value $0.001MTCHThe Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (Nasdaq Global Select Market)

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02.    Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Item 7.01.    Regulation FD Disclosure. On February 3, 2026, Match Group, Inc. (“Match Group”) published a press release and prepared remarks, each of which included results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The press release and prepared remarks are attached hereto as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. Match Group has also posted supplemental investor materials on the "Investor Relations" section of its website at https://ir.mtch.com. Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 are being furnished under both Item 2.02 “Results of Operations and Financial Condition” and Item 7.01 “Regulation FD Disclosure.” Item 8.01.    Other Events. On February 3, 2026, Match Group announced that its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.20 per share of its outstanding common stock, payable on April 21, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on April 7, 2026. Item 9.01.    Financial Statements and Exhibits. (d) Exhibits Exhibit Number Description 99.1 Press Release dated February 3, 2026.

99.2

Prepared Remarks dated February 3, 2026.

104Inline XBRL for the cover page of this Current Report on Form 8-K

SIGNATURE

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

MATCH GROUP, INC.

By:/s/ Steven Bailey Steven Bailey Chief Financial Officer

Date: February 3, 2026

About Match Group Inc. (MTCH) Earnings

This page provides Match Group Inc. (MTCH) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on MTCH's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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