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AI Earnings Predictions for Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+1.56%

$13.39

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+3.87%

$13.69

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-2.66%

$12.83

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $13.18 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q1 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q1 2026 BUY +1.56% +3.87% -2.66% 100.0% +8.65%
Q4 2025 BUY +1.47% +3.70% -2.12% 95.4% Pending
Q3 2025 SELL -3.36% -5.50% -9.81% 100.0% -0.79%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

May 7, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+1.56%

$13.39

Act: +4.25%

5D

+3.87%

$13.69

Act: +8.65%

20D

-2.66%

$12.83

Act: +2.05%

Price: $13.18 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001213900-26-053364

EX-99.1

2 ea028973001ex99-1.htm

PRESS RELEASE ISSUED MAY 7, 2026

Exhibit 99.1

Mach Natural Resources LP Reports First Quarter 2026 Results; Declares Quarterly Cash Distribution of $0.64 Per Common Unit

OKLAHOMA CITY, Oklahoma, May 7, 2026 — Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE: MNR) (“Mach” or the “Company”) today reported financial and operating results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The Company also announced its quarterly cash distribution.

First Quarter 2026 Highlights

●Averaged total net production of 158 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (“Mboe/d”)

●Lease operating expense of $7.12 per barrel of oil equivalent (“Boe”)

●Reported a net loss and Adjusted EBITDA(1) of $35 million and $195 million, respectively

●Generated net cash provided by operating activities of $170 million

●Incurred total development costs of $75 million, resulting in a reinvestment rate of 41%

●Declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.64 per common unit

Recent Highlights

●Spud the Company’s first operated Mancos Shale well in the San Juan Basin

●Paused Deep Anadarko drilling activity and began redirecting capital to higher return, oil-weighted projects in the Mid-Continent, marked by a restart of the Oswego drilling program in May of 2026

“Mach is off to a strong start in 2026, executing at a high level and delivering results in line with our plan,” said Tom L. Ward, Chief Executive Officer. “Our first quarter distribution of $0.64 per common unit reflects our continued ability to generate and deliver attractive unitholder returns while upholding our measured reinvestment approach.”

Tom L. Ward continued, “During the quarter, we began shifting our drilling program toward oil, demonstrating the optionality of our asset base and the flexibility of our operations. As we move through the year, we will remain nimble and disciplined, allocating capital to highest-return opportunities and staying aligned with our core objective of maximizing distributions.”

First Quarter 2026 Financial Results

Mach reported total revenue and a net loss of $286 million and $35 million in the first quarter of 2026, respectively. Additionally, during the first quarter, average realized prices were $69.73 per barrel of oil, $2.74 per Mcf of natural gas, and $23.75 per barrel of natural gas liquids (“NGLs”). These prices exclude the effects of derivatives.

As of March 31, 2026, Mach had a cash balance of $53 million and $695 million utilized under its $1.0 billion revolving credit facility, leaving approximately $358 million of available liquidity.

First Quarter 2026 Operational Results

During the first quarter of 2026, Mach achieved average oil equivalent production of 158 Mboe/d, which consisted of 16% oil, 70% natural gas and 14% NGLs. Also, for the first quarter of 2026, Mach’s production revenues from oil, natural gas, and NGLs sales totaled $366 million, comprised of 42% oil, 45% natural gas, and 13% NGLs.

The Company spud 5 gross (3.2 net) operated wells and brought online 4 gross (3.0 net) operated wells in the first quarter of 2026. As of March 31, 2026, the Company had 8 gross (6.0 net) operated wells in various stages of drilling and completion.

Mach’s lease operating expense in the first quarter of 2026 was $101 million, or $7.12 per Boe. Mach incurred $59 million, or $4.18 per Boe, of gathering and processing expenses in the first quarter of 2026. Furthermore, during the first quarter of 2026, production taxes as a percentage of oil, natural gas, and NGL sales were approximately 4.5%, midstream operating profit was approximately $5 million, general and administrative expenses—excluding equity-based compensation of $4 million—was $5 million, and interest expense was $24 million.

In the first quarter of 2026, Mach’s total development costs were $75 million, including $67 million of upstream capital and $8 million of other capital (including midstream and land).

Distributions

Mach announced today that the board of directors of its general partner declared a quarterly cash distribution for the first quarter of 2026 of $0.64 per common unit. The quarterly cash distribution is to be paid on June 4, 2026, to the Company’s unitholders of record as of the close of trading on May 21, 2026.

Conference Call and Webcast Information

Mach will host a conference call and webcast at 9:00 a.m. Central (10:00 a.m. Eastern) on Friday, May 8, 2026, to discuss its first quarter 2026 results. Supplemental slides will be posted to the Company’s website. Participants can access the conference call by dialing 877-407-2984. A webcast link to the conference call will be provided on the Company’s website at www.machnr.com. A replay will also be available on the Company’s website following the call.

1 Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure. Mach has defined this measure and provided reconciliations of this non-GAAP financial measure to its most directly comparable financial measure calculated and presented in accordance w

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K BUY

Mar 12, 2026 · 95% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+1.47%

$13.62

Act: +1.94%

5D

+3.70%

$13.92

20D

-2.12%

$13.14

Price: $13.42 Prob +5D: 98% AUC: 1.000
0001213900-26-027040

false 0001980088

0001980088

2026-03-12 2026-03-12

iso4217:USD

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iso4217:USD

xbrli:shares

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d)

OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): March 12, 2026

Mach Natural Resources LP

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Delaware

001-41849

93-1757616

(State or other jurisdiction

of incorporation)

(Commission File Number)

(IRS Employer

Identification No.)

14201 Wireless Way, Suite 300, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

73134

(Address of principal executive offices)

(Zip Code)

(405) 252-8100

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code

Not applicable.

(Former name or former address, if changed since last report.)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

☐Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class

Trading Symbol(s)

Name of each exchange on which registered

Common units representing limited partner interests

MNR

New York Stock Exchange

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).

Emerging growth company ☒

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☒

Item 2.02. Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On March 12, 2026, Mach Natural Resources LP (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) providing information on its results of operations and financial condition and reserves for the year ended December 31, 2025. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.

The information under this Item 2.02 and in Exhibit 99.1 to this Report is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information under this Item 2.02 and in Exhibit 99.1 to this Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”).

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d) Exhibits.

Exhibit No.

Description

99.1

Press Release issued March 12, 2026.

104

Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as Inline XBRL).

1

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

Mach Natural Resources LP

By: Mach Natural Resources GP LLC,

its general partner

Dated: March 12, 2026 By: /s/ Tom L. Ward

Name: Tom L. Ward

Title: Chief Executive Officer

2

2025
Q3

Q3 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Nov 6, 2025 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-3.36%

$11.63

Act: -3.53%

5D

-5.50%

$11.37

Act: -0.79%

20D

-9.81%

$10.85

Act: +3.86%

Price: $12.04 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001213900-25-107263

false 0001980088

0001980088

2025-11-06 2025-11-06

iso4217:USD

xbrli:shares

iso4217:USD

xbrli:shares

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d)

OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): November 6, 2025

Mach Natural Resources LP

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Delaware

001-41849

93-1757616

(State or other jurisdiction

of incorporation)

(Commission File Number)

(IRS Employer

Identification No.)

14201 Wireless Way, Suite 300, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

73134

(Address of principal executive offices)

(Zip Code)

(405) 252-8100

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code

Not applicable.

(Former name or former address, if changed since last report.)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class

Trading Symbol(s)

Name of each exchange on which registered

Common units representing limited partner interests

MNR

New York Stock Exchange

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).

Emerging growth company ☒

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02. Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On November 6, 2025, Mach Natural Resources LP (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) providing information on its results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this “Report”).

The information under this Item 2.02 and in Exhibit 99.1 to this Report is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information under this Item 2.02 and in Exhibit 99.1 to this Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”).

Item 7.01. Regulation FD Disclosure.

In addition to providing the results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, the Press Release announced the Company’s declaration of its quarterly distribution for the third quarter of 2025. The full text of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report and is incorporated herein by reference.

The information under this Item 7.01 and in Exhibit 99.1 to this Report is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purpose of Section 18 of the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information under this Item 7.01 and in Exhibit 99.1 to this Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act.

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d) Exhibits.

Exhibit No.

Description

99.1

Press Release issued November 6, 2025.

104

Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as Inline XBRL).

1

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

Mach Natural Resources LP

By: Mach Natural Resources GP LLC,

its general partner

Dated: November 6, 2025 By: /s/ Tom L. Ward

Name: Tom L. Ward

Title: Chief Executive Officer

2

About Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) Earnings

This page provides Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on MNR's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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