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AI Earnings Predictions for McDonald's Corporation (MCD)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+0.70%

$264.89

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+1.83%

$267.84

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+2.09%

$268.55

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $263.04 Confidence: 99.3% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q3 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q3 2026 BUY +0.70% +1.83% +2.09% 99.3% Pending
Q2 2026 SELL -0.45% -1.53% -1.96% 100.0% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL +0.08% -1.22% -2.06% 100.0% -3.08%
Q4 2025 SELL +0.08% -1.22% -2.06% 100.0% +1.36%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q3

Q3 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Nov 4, 2026 · 99% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+0.70%

$264.89

Act: -0.78%

5D

+1.83%

$267.84

20D

+2.09%

$268.55

Price: $263.04 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0000063908-26-000080

EX-99.1

2 exhibit991-9302026.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASEFOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT:

11/4/2026Investors: Dexter Congbalay, investor.relations@us.mcd.com

Media: Lauren Altmin, lauren.altmin@us.mcd.com

McDONALD'S REPORTS THIRD QUARTER 2026 RESULTS

•Global Systemwide sales* increased 4% to over $38 billion for the quarter

•Consolidated operating income increased 7% and adjusted operating income increased 8% for the quarter

•Systemwide sales to loyalty members across 70 loyalty markets were $41 billion for the trailing twelve-month period and more than $11 billion for the quarter

CHICAGO, IL - McDonald's Corporation today announced results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026.

“McDonald’s delivered another quarter of global growth, with solid performance across much of our international business. In the U.S., we're encouraged by improvement as the quarter progressed following our intervention on value,” said Chris Kempczinski, Chairman and CEO. “We’re focused on building from here, strengthening the business today and investing in the next chapter of growth.”

Third quarter financial performance:

•Global comparable sales increased 1.5%:

•U.S. decreased 0.2%

•International Operated Markets increased 1.4%

•International Developmental Licensed Markets increased 4.2%

•Consolidated revenues increased 1% (1% in constant currencies).

•Systemwide sales increased 4% (4% in constant currencies).

•Consolidated operating income increased 7% (7% in constant currencies). Results reflected pre-tax charges of $56 million and $39 million for the current year and prior year, respectively, primarily related to restructuring charges associated with Accelerating the Organization. Excluding these current and prior year charges, consolidated operating income increased 8% (8% in constant currencies).**

•Diluted earnings per share was $3.51, an increase of 10% (11% in constant currencies). Excluding the current year charges described above of $0.06 per share, diluted earnings per share was $3.57, an increase of 11% (11% in constant currencies) when also excluding prior year charges.**

•The Company declared a 4% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $1.93 per share.

*Refer to page 4 for a definition of Systemwide sales.

**Refer to pages 2 and 3 for additional details on our results for the third quarter 2026 and 2025.

1

COMPARABLE SALES

Increase/(Decrease)

Quarters Ended September 30,

20262025

U.S.(0.2)%2.4 %

International Operated Markets1.4 4.3

International Developmental Licensed Markets4.2 4.7

Total Company1.5 %3.6 %

•U.S.: Comparable sales declined slightly as negative comparable guest counts were largely offset by positive check growth.

•International Operated Markets: Most markets reflected positive comparable sales, led by Germany and Australia, partly offset by France.

•International Developmental Licensed Markets: All geographic regions reflected positive comparable sales. Positive comparable sales were led by Japan, partly offset by negative comparable sales in China.

KEY FINANCIAL METRICS - CONSOLIDATED

Dollars in millions, except per share data

Quarters Ended September 30,Nine Months Ended September 30,

20262025Inc/ (Dec)Inc/ (Dec) Excluding Currency Translation20262025Inc/ (Dec)Inc/ (Dec) Excluding Currency Translation

Revenues$7,157 $7,078 1 %1 %$20,773 $19,876 5 %2 %

Operating income3,595 3,357 7 7 9,887 9,237 7 5

Net income2,486 2,278 9 9 6,831 6,399 7 5

Earnings per share-diluted$3.51 $3.18 10 %11 %$9.61 $8.92 8 %6 %

Results for 2026 included the following:

•Net pre-tax charges of $56 million, or $0.06 per share, for the quarter and $155 million, or $0.17 per share, for the nine months, primarily related to restructuring charges associated with the Company's internal effort to modernize ways of working (Accelerating the Organization)

Results for 2025 included the following:

•Net pre-tax charges of $39 million, or $0.04 per share, for the quarter and $148 million, or $0.16 per share, for the nine months, primarily related to restructuring charges associated with Accelerating the Organization

Excluding the above items, results for the quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2026 were primarily driven by higher Other operating income and higher sales-driven Franchised margins. Results for the nine months were partly offset by higher Selling, general and administrative expenses.

2

NET INCOME AND EARNINGS PER SHARE-DILUTED RECONCILIATION

Dollars in millions, except per share data

Quarters Ended September 30,

Net IncomeEarnings per share - diluted

20262025Inc/ (Dec)Inc/ (Dec) Excluding Currency Translation20262025Inc/ (Dec)Inc/ (Dec) Excluding Currency Translation

GAAP$2,486 $2,278 9 %9 %$3.51 $3.18 10 %11 %

(Gains)/Charges, net of tax43 30 0.06 0.04

Non-GAAP$2,529 $2,308 10 %10 %$3.57 $3.22 11 %11 %

Nine Months Ended September 30,

Net IncomeEarnings per share - diluted

20262025Inc/ (Dec)Inc/ (Dec) Excluding Currency Tr

2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Aug 4, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-0.45%

$265.05

Act: +2.19%

5D

-1.53%

$262.17

20D

-1.96%

$261.03

Price: $266.25 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0000063908-26-000067

EX-99.1

2 exhibit991-6302026.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASEFOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT:

8/4/2026Investors: Dexter Congbalay, investor.relations@us.mcd.com

Media: Lauren Altmin, lauren.altmin@us.mcd.com

McDONALD'S REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS

•Global Systemwide sales* increased 5% (4% in constant currencies) to $37 billion for the quarter

•Across 70 loyalty markets, Systemwide sales to loyalty members for the trailing twelve months increased over 20% to $40 billion, with 90-day active loyalty users up 13% to nearly 220 million as of quarter-end

•Skye Anderson, proven McDonald’s executive, appointed as President of McDonald’s USA to lead the Company's largest market

CHICAGO, IL - McDonald's Corporation today announced results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026.

“This quarter McDonald’s delivered positive comparable sales growth across every segment and acted decisively to strengthen execution as we prime McDonald’s for the next era of long-term growth,” said Chris Kempczinski, Chairman and CEO. “While our playbook is working around the world, we see an opportunity to raise the bar in the U.S. and accelerate performance in our largest market. Skye Anderson’s appointment today as President of McDonald’s USA will bring focus and urgency to these efforts given her deep system knowledge, operational discipline, and proven ability to drive change and deliver results for everyone in our System.”

Second quarter financial performance:

•Global comparable sales increased 1.3%:

•U.S. increased 0.8%

•International Operated Markets increased 1.5%

•International Developmental Licensed Markets increased 1.9%

•Consolidated revenues increased 4% (2% in constant currencies).

•Systemwide sales increased 5% (4% in constant currencies).

•Consolidated operating income increased 3% (2% in constant currencies). Results reflected pre-tax charges of $52 million and $43 million for the current year and prior year, respectively, primarily related to restructuring charges associated with Accelerating the Organization. Excluding these current and prior year charges, consolidated operating income increased 4% (2% in constant currencies).**

•Diluted earnings per share was $3.32, an increase of 6% (5% in constant currencies). Excluding the current year charges described above of $0.06 per share, diluted earnings per share was $3.38, an increase of 6% (5% in constant currencies) when also excluding prior year charges.**

*Refer to page 4 for a definition of Systemwide sales.

**Refer to pages 2 and 3 for additional details on our results for the second quarter 2026 and 2025.

1

COMPARABLE SALES

Increase/(Decrease)

Quarters Ended June 30,

20262025

U.S.0.8 %2.5 %

International Operated Markets1.5 4.0

International Developmental Licensed Markets1.9 5.6

Total Company1.3 %3.8 %

•U.S.: Comparable sales results were driven by positive check growth, including favorable product mix, partly offset by negative comparable guest counts.

•International Operated Markets: Most markets reflected positive comparable sales, led by Germany, Australia and the U.K., partly offset by France.

•International Developmental Licensed Markets: Positive comparable sales were led by Japan, with all geographic regions reflecting positive comparable sales. Comparable sales results were partly offset by negative comparable sales in China.

KEY FINANCIAL METRICS - CONSOLIDATED

Dollars in millions, except per share data

Quarters Ended June 30,Six Months Ended June 30,

20262025Inc/ (Dec)Inc/ (Dec) Excluding Currency Translation20262025Inc/ (Dec)Inc/ (Dec) Excluding Currency Translation

Revenues$7,099 $6,843 4 %2 %$13,616 $12,799 6 %3 %

Operating income3,338 3,232 3 2 6,292 5,880 7 4

Net income2,362 2,253 5 4 4,345 4,121 5 3

Earnings per share-diluted$3.32 $3.14 6 %5 %$6.10 $5.74 6 %3 %

Results for 2026 included the following:

•Net pre-tax charges of $52 million, or $0.06 per share, for the quarter and $99 million, or $0.11 per share, for the six months, primarily related to restructuring charges associated with the Company's internal effort to modernize ways of working (Accelerating the Organization)

Results for 2025 included the following:

•Pre-tax charges of $43 million, or $0.05 per share, for the quarter and $109 million, or $0.12 per share, for the six months, primarily related to restructuring charges associated with Accelerating the Organization

Excluding the above items, results for the quarter and six months ended June 30, 2026 were primarily driven by higher sales-driven Franchised margins and higher Other operating income, partly offset by higher Selling, general and administrative expenses.

2

NET INCOME AND EARNINGS PER SHARE-DILUTED RECONCILIATION

Dollars in millions, except per share data

Quarters Ended June 30,

Net IncomeEarnings per share - diluted

20262025Inc/ (Dec)Inc/ (Dec) Excluding Currency Translation20262025Inc/ (Dec)Inc/ (Dec) Excluding Currency Translation

GAAP$2,36

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

May 7, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

+0.08%

$283.96

Act: -3.08%

5D

-1.22%

$280.27

Act: -3.08%

20D

-2.06%

$277.89

Act: -1.46%

Price: $283.74 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0000063908-26-000048

EX-99.1

2 exhibit991-33126xq1.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASEFOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT:

5/7/2026Investors: Dexter Congbalay, investor.relations@us.mcd.com

Media: Lauren Altmin, lauren.altmin@us.mcd.com

McDONALD'S REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS

•Global comparable sales increased 3.8% for the quarter, with consistently solid comparable sales growth across all segments

•Global Systemwide sales* increased 11% (6% in constant currencies) to over $34 billion for the quarter

•Across 70 loyalty markets, Systemwide sales to loyalty members were over $38 billion for the trailing twelve-month period and over $9 billion for the quarter

CHICAGO, IL - McDonald's Corporation today announced results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026.

“McDonald's delivered this quarter. Our 6% global Systemwide sales growth shows how we executed with discipline, proving that we can drive results even in a challenging environment," said Chairman and CEO Chris Kempczinski. "And it’s our commitment to going three-for-three that sets McDonald’s apart. Our value leadership, breakthrough marketing, and menu innovation continue to serve up what customers want.”

First quarter financial performance:

•Global comparable sales increased 3.8%:

•U.S. increased 3.9%

•International Operated Markets increased 3.9%

•International Developmental Licensed Markets increased 3.4%

•Consolidated revenues increased 9% (4% in constant currencies).

•Systemwide sales increased 11% (6% in constant currencies).

•Consolidated operating income increased 12% (6% in constant currencies). Results reflected pre-tax charges of $47 million and $66 million for the current year and prior year, respectively, primarily related to restructuring charges associated with Accelerating the Organization. Excluding these current and prior year charges, consolidated operating income increased 11% (5% in constant currencies).**

•Diluted earnings per share was $2.78, an increase of 7% (2% in constant currencies). Excluding the current year charges described above of $0.05 per share, diluted earnings per share was $2.83, an increase of 6% (1% in constant currencies) when also excluding prior year charges.**

*Refer to page 3 for a definition of Systemwide sales.

**Refer to page 2 for additional details on our results for the first quarter 2026 and 2025.

1

COMPARABLE SALES

Increase/(Decrease)

Quarters Ended March 31,

2026

2025

U.S.3.9 %(3.6)%

International Operated Markets3.9 (1.0)

International Developmental Licensed Markets3.4 3.5

Total Company3.8 %(1.0)%

•U.S.: Comparable sales results were primarily driven by positive check growth.

•International Operated Markets: Nearly all markets reflected positive comparable sales, led by the U.K., Germany and Australia.

•International Developmental Licensed Markets: Positive comparable sales were led by Japan, with all geographic regions reflecting comparable sales growth.

KEY FINANCIAL METRICS - CONSOLIDATED

Dollars in millions, except per share data

Quarters Ended March 31,

20262025Inc/ (Dec)Inc/ (Dec) Excluding Currency Translation

Revenues$6,517 $5,956 9 %4 %

Operating income2,953 2,648 12 6

Net income1,983 1,868 6 1

Earnings per share-diluted$2.78 $2.60 7 %2 %

Results included pre-tax charges of $47 million, or $0.05 per share, for the three months ended March 31, 2026 and $66 million, or $0.07 per share, for the three months ended March 31, 2025, primarily related to restructuring charges associated with the Company's internal effort to modernize ways of working (Accelerating the Organization).

Excluding the above items, results reflected higher sales-driven Franchised margins, partly offset by a higher effective tax rate.

NET INCOME AND EARNINGS PER SHARE-DILUTED RECONCILIATION

Dollars in millions, except per share data

Quarters Ended March 31,

Net IncomeEarnings per share - diluted

20262025Inc/ (Dec)Inc/ (Dec) Excluding Currency Translation20262025Inc/ (Dec)Inc/ (Dec) Excluding Currency Translation

GAAP$1,983 $1,868 6 %1 %$2.78 $2.60 7 %2 %

(Gains)/Charges, net of tax36 51 0.05 0.07

Non-GAAP$2,019 $1,919 5 %— %$2.83 $2.67 6 %1 %

2

THE FOLLOWING DEFINITIONS APPLY TO THESE TERMS AS USED THROUGHOUT THIS RELEASE

Constant currency results exclude the effects of foreign currency translation and are calculated by translating current year results at prior year average exchange rates. Management reviews and analyzes business results excluding the effect of foreign currency translation, impairment and other charges and gains, as well as material regulatory and other income tax impacts, and bases incentive compensation plans on these results because the Company believes this better represents underlying business trends.

Comparable sales and comparable guest counts are compared to the same period in the prior year and represent sales and transactions, respectively, at all restaurants, whether owned and operated by the Company or by franchisees, in operation at le

About McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Earnings

This page provides McDonald's Corporation (MCD) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on MCD's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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