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AI Earnings Predictions for MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-8.92%

$9.11

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-19.24%

$8.08

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-17.93%

$8.21

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $10.00 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q1 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q1 2026 SELL -8.92% -19.24% -17.93% 100.0% -10.30%
Q4 2025 SELL -8.92% -19.24% -17.93% 100.0% +30.76%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Apr 29, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-8.92%

$9.11

Act: -14.95%

5D

-19.24%

$8.08

Act: -10.30%

20D

-17.93%

$8.21

Act: -11.10%

Price: $10.00 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001818383-26-000117

max-20260429

0001818383FALSE00018183832026-04-292026-04-29

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, DC 20549


FORM 8-K


CURRENT REPORT

PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): April 29, 2026


MediaAlpha, Inc.

(Exact Name of Registrant as Specified in Its Charter)


Delaware001-3967185-1854133

(State or other jurisdiction

of incorporation)

(Commission

File Number)

(IRS Employer

Identification No.)

700 South Flower Street, Suite 640

Los Angeles, California 90017

(Address of Principal Executive Offices)(Zip Code)

(213) 316-6256

(Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)

(Not Applicable)

(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

oWritten communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

oSoliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

oPre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

oPre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each classTrading Symbol(s)Name of each exchange on which registered

Class A common stock, $0.01 par valueMAXNew York Stock Exchange

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).

Emerging growth company     o

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.    o

Item 2.02 – Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On April 29, 2026, MediaAlpha, Inc. (“MediaAlpha” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results as of and for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, and its financial outlook for the second quarter of 2026, and posted certain supplemental financial information to the Investor Relations section of its website. Copies of the press release and investor supplement are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Form 8-K and are incorporated by reference herein.

This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.

MediaAlpha refers to non-GAAP financial information in the press release and investor supplement. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable GAAP financial measures is contained in each document.

ITEM 9.01 – Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d) Exhibits

Exhibit

No. Description

99.1

Press release dated April 29, 2026.

99.2

Investor Supplement dated April 29, 2026.

104Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document).

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

MediaAlpha, Inc.

Date: April 29, 2026By:/s/ Jeffrey B. Coyne

Name:Jeffrey B. Coyne

Title:General Counsel & Secretary

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Feb 23, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-8.92%

$7.08

Act: +15.44%

5D

-19.24%

$6.27

Act: +30.76%

20D

-17.93%

$6.38

Price: $7.77 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001818383-26-000047

max-202602180001818383FALSE00018183832026-02-182026-02-18

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, DC 20549


FORM 8-K


CURRENT REPORT

PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): February 18, 2026


MediaAlpha, Inc. (Exact Name of Registrant as Specified in Its Charter)


Delaware001-3967185-1854133 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation) (Commission File Number) (IRS Employer Identification No.)

700 South Flower Street, Suite 640 Los Angeles, California 90017 (Address of Principal Executive Offices)(Zip Code)

(213) 316-6256 (Registrant’s telephone number, including area code) (Not Applicable) (Former name or former address, if changed since last report)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

oWritten communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

oSoliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

oPre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

oPre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each classTrading Symbol(s)Name of each exchange on which registered Class A common stock, $0.01 par valueMAXNew York Stock Exchange

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company     o If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.    o

ITEM 2.02 – Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 23, 2026, MediaAlpha, Inc. (“MediaAlpha” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results as of and for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, and its financial outlook for the first quarter of 2026, and posted certain supplemental financial information to the Investor Relations section of its website. Copies of the press release and investor supplement are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Form 8-K and are incorporated by reference herein. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. MediaAlpha refers to non-GAAP financial information in the press release and investor supplement. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable GAAP financial measures is contained in each document.

ITEM 8.01 - Other Events. On February 18, 2026, the Company's Board of Directors authorized an increase in the Company’s existing $50.0 million Share Repurchase Program, of which $14.4 million has been used as of the date of this Current Report on Form 8-K, by an additional $50.0 million, to a total of up to $100.0 million. The Company may repurchase such shares through open market transactions, privately negotiated transactions, preset trading plans, block trades or any combination of such methods. The timing and amount of any share repurchases will be determined by the Company’s management in its discretion based on their ongoing evaluation of market and economic conditions, the trading price and volume of the Company’s Class A common stock, the Company’s capital needs and investment opportunities, and other factors. The Company expects to complete the vast majority of the Repurchase Program by the end of 2026, but it may be suspended or discontinued at any time, and does not obligate the Company to acquire any amount of Class A common stock.

Forward-Looking Statements

This Current Report on Form 8-K contains forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, statements regarding the share repurchase program and expected timing and amount of such repurchases. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about our industry, management’s beliefs and certain assumptions made by management, many of which, by their nature, are inherently uncertain and beyond our control. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statement

2025
Q3

Q3 2025 Earnings

8-K

Oct 29, 2025

0001818383-25-000124

max-202510280001818383FALSE00018183832025-10-282025-10-28

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, DC 20549


FORM 8-K


CURRENT REPORT

PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): October 28, 2025


MediaAlpha, Inc. (Exact Name of Registrant as Specified in Its Charter)


Delaware001-3967185-1854133 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation) (Commission File Number) (IRS Employer Identification No.)

700 South Flower Street, Suite 640 Los Angeles, California 90017 (Address of Principal Executive Offices)(Zip Code)

(213) 316-6256 (Registrant’s telephone number, including area code) (Not Applicable) (Former name or former address, if changed since last report)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

oWritten communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

oSoliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

oPre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

oPre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each classTrading Symbol(s)Name of each exchange on which registered Class A common stock, $0.01 par valueMAXNew York Stock Exchange

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company     o If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.    o

Item 2.02 – Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2025, MediaAlpha, Inc. (“MediaAlpha” or the “Company”) issued a press release and an accompanying shareholder letter announcing its financial results as of and for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, and its financial outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025. Copies of the press release and shareholder letter are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Form 8-K and are incorporated by reference herein. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. MediaAlpha refers to non-GAAP financial information in the press release and shareholder letter. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable GAAP financial measures is contained in each document.

ITEM 8.01 - Other Events. On October 28, 2025, the Company's Board of Directors authorized a new Share Repurchase Program to repurchase up to $50 million of shares of Class A common stock. The Company may repurchase such shares through open market transactions, privately negotiated transactions, preset trading plans, block trades or any combination of such methods. The timing and amount of any share repurchases will be determined by the Company’s management in its discretion based on their ongoing evaluation of market and economic conditions, the trading price and volume of the Company’s Class A common stock, the Company’s capital needs and investment opportunities, and other factors. The Repurchase Program is expected to be completed by the end of 2026, but may be suspended or discontinued at any time, and does not obligate the Company to acquire any amount of Class A common stock.

Forward-Looking Statements

This Current Report on Form 8-K contains forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, statements regarding the share repurchase program and expected timing and amount of such repurchases. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about our industry, management’s beliefs and certain assumptions made by management, many of which, by their nature, are inherently uncertain and beyond our control. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable as of the date made, actual results may prove to be materially different from the results expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. There are or will be important factors that could cause our actual results to differ

About MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX) Earnings

This page provides MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on MAX's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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