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AI Earnings Predictions for Mastercard Incorporated (MA)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-0.28%

$577.89

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-1.40%

$571.37

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+1.11%

$585.94

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $579.49 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q2 2026 SELL -0.28% -1.40% +1.11% 100.0% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL -0.04% -1.54% +1.62% 100.0% -0.58%
Q4 2025 BUY +0.70% +2.28% +3.73% 100.0% +1.50%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Jul 30, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-0.28%

$577.89

Act: -1.10%

5D

-1.40%

$571.37

20D

+1.11%

$585.94

Price: $579.49 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001141391-26-000081

EX-99.1

2 ma06302026-exx991xearnings.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Earnings Release

Mastercard Incorporated Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results

•Second quarter net income of $4.4 billion, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.97

•Second quarter adjusted net income of $4.5 billion, and adjusted diluted EPS of $5.04

•Second quarter net revenue of $9.3 billion, an increase of 14%, or 12% on a currency-neutral basis

•Second quarter gross dollar volume up 8% and purchase volume up 10%, on a local currency basis

Purchase, NY - July 30, 2026 - Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) today announced financial results for the second quarter 2026.

“We delivered above expectations with net revenue growth at 14% year-over-year, or 12% on a currency-neutral basis in the second quarter. These results reflect our role in powering more ways to shop, pay and do business. From new partnerships in Mexico and the UAE to our market-first Agentic Payment capability, we’re unlocking opportunities unique to Mastercard and shaping what’s next in commerce.” said Michael Miebach, Mastercard CEO.

Quarterly Results

Second Quarter Operating Results Increase / (Decrease)

$ in billions, except per share data Q2 2026Q2 2025Reported GAAPCurrency-neutral

Net revenue$9.3$8.114%12%

Operating expenses$3.7$3.410%9%

Operating income$5.6$4.817%14%

Operating margin60.2%58.7%1.5 ppt1.1 ppt

Effective income tax rate20.0%20.8%(0.8) ppt(0.9) ppt

Net income$4.4$3.719%16%

Diluted EPS$4.97$4.0722%19%

Key Second Quarter Non-GAAP Results 1

Increase / (Decrease)

$ in billions, except per share data Q2 2026Q2 2025As adjustedCurrency-neutral

Net revenue$9.3$8.114%12%

Adjusted operating expenses$3.6$3.311%10%

Adjusted operating margin61.1%59.9%1.2 ppt0.8 ppt

Adjusted effective income tax rate20.0%20.9%(0.8) ppt(0.9) ppt

Adjusted net income$4.5$3.818%16%

Adjusted diluted EPS$5.04$4.1521%19%

1 The Key Second Quarter Non-GAAP Results exclude the impact of gains and losses on the company’s equity investments, special items as described on page 11 (“Second Quarter Special Items”) and/or the translational and transactional impact of currency and the related impact of the company’s foreign exchange derivative contracts designated as cash flow hedging instruments (specifically those that manage the impact of foreign currency variability on anticipated revenues and expenses). See page 11 for the company’s non-GAAP adjustments and the reconciliation to GAAP reported amounts.

Q2 2026 Key Business Drivers (YoY growth)

Gross dollar volume

Cross-border volume

Switched transactions

(local currency basis)(local currency basis)

up 8%

up 12%

up 9%

The following information is provided to aid in understanding Mastercard’s second quarter 2026 results, versus the year ago period.

•Net revenue increased 14%, or 12% on a currency-neutral basis versus the comparable period in 2025. The increase was attributable to growth in our payment network and value-added services and solutions.

▪Payment network net revenue increased 10%, or 8% on a currency-neutral basis. Primary drivers of the increase were as follows:

•Gross dollar volume growth of 8% on a local currency basis to $2.9 trillion.

•Cross-border volume growth of 12% on a local currency basis.

•Switched transactions growth of 9%.

This increase in payment network net revenue includes growth in payment network rebates and incentives provided to customers. Payment network rebates and incentives increased 22%, or 20% on a currency-neutral basis, primarily due to an increase in our key drivers, as well as new and renewed deals.

▪Value-added services and solutions net revenue increased 20%, or 18% on a currency-neutral basis. The growth was driven primarily by our underlying key drivers, security solutions, consumer acquisition and engagement services, digital and authentication solutions and business and market insights and pricing. This includes a minimal decrease from acquisitions and dispositions.

•Total operating expenses increased 10% as compared to the same period in 2025, primarily due to higher general and administrative expenses. Excluding the impact of Second Quarter Special Items, adjusted operating expenses increased 11%, or 10% on a currency-neutral basis. This includes a 1 percentage point benefit from acquisitions and dispositions. The remaining increase was primarily due to higher general and administrative expenses.

•Other income (expense) was favorable by $4 million versus the year ago period. Excluding the impact of net gains and losses on our equity investments, adjusted other income (expense) was favorable by $9 million.

•The effective tax rate for the second quarter of 2026 was 20.0%, versus 20.8% for the comparable period in 2025. The adjusted effective tax rate for the second quarter of 2026 was 20.0%, versus 20.9% for the comparable period in 2025. Both as-reported and as-adjusted income tax rates were lower versus the comparable period in 2025 due to partially offs

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Apr 30, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-0.04%

$504.01

Act: -1.70%

5D

-1.54%

$496.45

Act: -0.58%

20D

+1.62%

$512.37

Act: -1.91%

Price: $504.21 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001141391-26-000029

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2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K BUY

Jan 29, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+0.70%

$547.56

Act: -0.96%

5D

+2.28%

$556.15

Act: +1.50%

20D

+3.73%

$564.03

Act: -4.82%

Price: $543.73 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001141391-26-000003

ma-20260129false000114139100011413912026-01-292026-01-290001141391us-gaap:CommonClassAMember2026-01-292026-01-290001141391ma:TwoPointOnePercentNotesDue2027Member2026-01-292026-01-290001141391ma:A1NotesDue2029Member2026-01-292026-01-290001141391ma:TwoPointFivePercentNotesDue2030Member2026-01-292026-01-29

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549


FORM 8-K


CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported):January 29, 2026


Mastercard Incorporated (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)


Delaware001-3287713-4172551 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)(Commission File Number)(IRS Employer Identification No.) 2000 Purchase Street10577 Purchase,NY (Address of principal executive offices)(Zip Code) (914)249-2000 (Registrant's telephone number, including area code)

NOT APPLICABLE

(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

☐Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each classTrading SymbolName of each exchange of which registered Class A Common StockMANew York Stock Exchange 2.1% Notes due 2027MA27New York Stock Exchange 1.0% Notes due 2029MA29A New York Stock Exchange

2.5% Notes due 2030MA30New York Stock Exchange

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).

Emerging growth company ☐

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐ 1

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition

On January 29, 2026, Mastercard Incorporated issued an earnings release announcing financial results for its fourth quarter and full year 2025.

A copy of the earnings release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. All information in the earnings release is furnished but not filed.

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits

(d) Exhibits.

Exhibit NumberExhibit Description 99.1 Earnings Release issued by Mastercard Incorporated, dated January 29, 2026

104Cover Page Interactive Data File - the cover page interactive data file does not appear in the Interactive Data File because its XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document.

2

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

MASTERCARD INCORPORATED

Date:January 29, 2026By:/s/ Gina Accordino

Gina Accordino

Corporate Secretary

3

About Mastercard Incorporated (MA) Earnings

This page provides Mastercard Incorporated (MA) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on MA's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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