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AI Earnings Predictions for John Marshall Bancorp Inc. (JMSB)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+1.53%

$21.20

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+4.18%

$21.75

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+4.56%

$21.83

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $20.88 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q1 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q1 2026 BUY +1.53% +4.18% +4.56% 100.0% Pending
Q4 2025 BUY +1.33% +4.09% +5.13% 100.0% +4.95%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Apr 29, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+1.53%

$21.20

5D

+4.18%

$21.75

20D

+4.56%

$21.83

Price: $20.88 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001104659-26-050955

EX-99.1

2 jmsb-20260429xex99d1.htm

EX-99.1

Exhibit 99.1

For Immediate Release

April 29, 2026

Continued Net Interest Margin Growth Drives 27% Increase in Net Income

Core Deposits and Loans Expand and Asset Quality Remains Strong

Reston, VA – John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (Nasdaq: JMSB) (the “Company”), parent company of John Marshall Bank (the “Bank”), reported net income of $6.1 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 compared to $4.8 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, an increase of $1.3 million or 26.8%.  Diluted earnings per common share were $0.43 for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 compared to $0.34 for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, an increase of 26.5%. Annualized return on average assets was 1.06% for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 compared to 0.87% for the quarter ended March 31, 2025. Annualized return on average equity was 9.19% for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 compared to 7.76% for the quarter ended March 31, 2025.

Selected Highlights

●Earnings Growth Momentum – Net income of $6.1 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 represented a 3.1% increase over the $5.9 million net income reported for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 or an annualized quarter-over-quarter increase of 12.7%. The quarter ended March 31, 2026 marked the seventh consecutive quarter of net income growth.  Diluted earnings per common share were $0.43 for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and represented a 2.4% increase over the $0.42 diluted earnings per common share reported for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 or an annualized quarter-over-quarter increase of 9.7%.

●Significant Increase in Net Interest Income - For the three months ended March 31, 2026, the Company reported net interest income of $16.5 million, a $2.4 million or 17.1% increase over the prior year first quarter.

●Continued Net Interest Margin Expansion - Net interest margin expanded for the eighth consecutive quarter. Net interest margin increased 29 basis points, from 2.58% for the first quarter of 2025 to 2.87% for the first quarter of 2026. Net interest margin grew 14 basis points when compared to 2.73% for the fourth quarter of 2025.

●Focused on Core Funding and Loan Growth - The Company remains focused on driving value through core funding growth. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2026, total deposits increased $65.6 million or 3.4%.  For the twelve months ended March 31, 2026, non-interest bearing demand deposits increased $20.4 million or 4.7%. Non-interest bearing demand deposits grew $25.5 million or 5.9% from December 31, 2025 to March 31, 2026. Non-interest bearing demand deposits represented 23.1% of total deposits as of March 31, 2026, an increase from 21.9% as of December 31, 2025. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2026, gross loans increased $103.3 million or 5.5%.

●Positive Operating Leverage – Revenues (net interest income plus non-interest income) grew 15.0% for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 relative to the quarter ended March 31, 2025, while non-interest expense increased 8.2%, over the same period. This positive trend in operating leverage improved the efficiency ratio from 56.5% for the three months ended March 31, 2025 to 53.1% for the three months ended March 31, 2026.

●Strong Asset Quality – Overall credit quality of the loan portfolio remains exceptional. The Company recorded no charge-offs during the first quarter of 2026 and had no other real estate owned assets as of March 31, 2026. During the most recent quarter, management placed one U.S. Small Business Administration (“SBA”) 7(a) loan in the total amount of $984 thousand on non-accrual status, representing the Company’s only non-accrual loan as of March 31, 2026. The entire outstanding loan amount is fully guaranteed by the SBA. The Company has submitted the guaranty purchase to the SBA and expects to receive the full guarantee payment. This is the only non-accrual loan since the third quarter of 2019.

1

●Growing Book Value per Share and Dividends – Book value per share increased from $17.72 as of March 31, 2025 to $19.00 as of March 31, 2026, a 7.2% increase.  On April 28, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.09 per share on the Company’s common stock.  The dividend is payable on June 3, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 13, 2026.  The annualized quarterly cash dividend represents a 20% increase over the 2025 annual cash dividend.

●Robust Capitalization – Each of the Bank’s regulatory capital ratios remained well in excess of the regulatory well-capitalized thresholds as of March 31, 2026.  During the three months ended March 31, 2026, the Company repurchased 103,507 shares of its common stock at a weighted average price of $19.69.

Chris Bergstrom, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented, “The first quarter of 2026 marks the eighth consecutive quarter of net interest margin improvement. Of the 29 basis points of margin improve

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K BUY

Jan 28, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+1.33%

$20.27

Act: +3.15%

5D

+4.09%

$20.82

Act: +4.95%

20D

+5.13%

$21.03

Act: +0.00%

Price: $20.00 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001104659-26-007250

John Marshall Bancorp, Inc._January 28, 2026 0001710482false00017104822026-01-282026-01-28 ​ ​

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549 ​

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 ​ Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): January 28, 2026 ​

​ John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) ​

​ ​ -

Virginia

001-41315

81-5424879

(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)

(Commission File Number)

(IRS Employer Identification No.)

​ 1943 Isaac Newton Square East, Suite 100 Reston, Virginia 20190 (Address, including zip code, of principal executive offices) ​ Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (703) 584-0840 ​

​ Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below): ​

☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

​ Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: ​ Title of each class registered

Trading symbol(s)

Name of each exchange on which registered

Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share

JMSB

The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC

​ Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). ​ Emerging growth company ☒ ​ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☒ ​ ​ ​

​ Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition. ​ On January 28, 2026, John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. ​ ​ Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.

Exhibits

Exhibit No. ​ Description

99.1 ​ Press release dated January 28, 2026.

104 ​ Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document).

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

JOHN MARSHALL BANCORP, INC.

Date: January 28, 2026

By:

/s/ Kent D. Carstater

Kent D. Carstater Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

2025
Q3

Q3 2025 Earnings

8-K

Oct 29, 2025

0001104659-25-103565

John Marshall Bancorp, Inc._October 29, 2025 0001710482false00017104822025-10-292025-10-29 ​ ​

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549 ​

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 ​ Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): October 29, 2025 ​

​ John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) ​

​ ​ -

Virginia

001-41315

81-5424879

(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)

(Commission File Number)

(IRS Employer Identification No.)

​ 1943 Isaac Newton Square East, Suite 100 Reston, Virginia 20190 (Address, including zip code, of principal executive offices) ​ Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (703) 584-0840 ​

​ Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below): ​

☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

​ Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: ​ Title of each class registered

Trading symbol(s)

Name of each exchange on which registered

Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share

JMSB

The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC

​ Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). ​ Emerging growth company ☒ ​ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☒ ​ ​ ​

​ Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition. ​ On October 29, 2025, John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. ​ ​ Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.

Exhibits

Exhibit No.

Description

99.1 ​ Press release dated October 29, 2025.

104 ​ Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document).

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

JOHN MARSHALL BANCORP, INC.

Date: October 29, 2025

By:

/s/ Kent D. Carstater

Kent D. Carstater Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

About John Marshall Bancorp Inc. (JMSB) Earnings

This page provides John Marshall Bancorp Inc. (JMSB) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on JMSB's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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