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AI Earnings Predictions for Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. Class B (HG)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+5.35%

$37.45

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+11.17%

$39.52

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+12.35%

$39.94

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $35.55 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q2 2026 BUY +5.35% +11.17% +12.35% 100.0% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL -5.70% -6.28% -8.25% 100.0% -6.38%
Q4 2025 BUY +5.57% +11.57% +14.64% 100.0% +8.39%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Aug 6, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+5.35%

$37.45

Act: +1.01%

5D

+11.17%

$39.52

20D

+12.35%

$39.94

Price: $35.55 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001593275-26-000094

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2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Apr 30, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-5.70%

$30.90

Act: -3.23%

5D

-6.28%

$30.71

Act: -6.38%

20D

-8.25%

$30.07

Act: -10.07%

Price: $32.77 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001593275-26-000055

EX-99.1

2 hg991pressreleaseq126.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Hamilton Reports 2026 First Quarter Results

Net Income of $134 million; Annualized Return on Average Equity of 19%

Operating Income of $167 million; Operating Return on Average Equity of 24%

PEMBROKE, Bermuda, April 30, 2026 – Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (NYSE: HG; “Hamilton” or the “Company”) today announced financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026.

Commenting on the results, Pina Albo, CEO of Hamilton, said:

“Hamilton reported strong first quarter 2026 results, generating net income of $134 million and operating income of $167 million, an annualized return on average equity of 19% and operating return on average equity of 24%. This was supported by a 89.8% combined ratio and strong investment income. Gross premiums written increased 11% year over year as the company maintained underwriting discipline, writing business that met return thresholds and stepping away where that was not the case.

In a more complex and volatile environment and amid competitive market conditions, Hamilton emphasized continued focus on margin quality and prudent capital deployment to support sustainable profitability."

Consolidated Highlights – First Quarter

•Net income of $133.5 million, or $1.31 per diluted share and operating income of $166.7 million, or $1.64 per diluted share;

•Annualized return on average equity of 19.3% and annualized operating return on average equity of 24.1%;

•Gross premiums written of $940.1 million, an increase of 11.5% compared to the first quarter of 2025;

•Net premiums earned of $570.5 million, an increase of 14.3% compared to the first quarter of 2025;

•Combined ratio of 89.8%;

•Underwriting income of $57.6 million;

•Net investment income of $93.6 million, comprised of Two Sigma Hamilton Fund returns of $93.1 million, and fixed income, short term and cash and cash equivalents returns of $0.5 million;

•On February 18, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a special dividend of $2.00 per share, or $205.8 million. The dividend was paid on March 30, 2026, to common shareholders of record as of March 6, 2026;

•Book value per share of $27.42, a decrease of 3.8% compared to December 31, 2025;

•Book value per share plus accumulated dividends, of $29.42, an increase of 3.2% compared to December 31, 2025; and

•Repurchased common shares of $19.7 million in the first quarter of 2026.

1

Consolidated Results – First Quarter

For the Three Months Ended

($ in thousands, except for per share amounts and percentages)March 31, 2026March 31, 2025Change

Gross premiums written$940,110$843,306$96,804

Net premiums written653,659603,87549,784

Net premiums earned570,515498,92871,587

Underwriting income (loss)$57,581$(58,259)$115,840

Combined ratio89.8%111.6%(21.8 pts)

Net income (loss) attributable to common shareholders$133,538$80,872$52,666

Income (loss) per share attributable to common shareholders - diluted$1.31$0.77

Book value per common share$27.42$23.59

Accumulated dividends$2.00$—

Book value per common share plus accumulated dividends$29.42$23.59

Change in book value per common share plus accumulated dividends3.2%2.8%

Return on average common equity - annualized19.3%13.7%

For the Three Months Ended

Key RatiosMarch 31, 2026March 31, 2025Change

Attritional loss ratio - current year54.5%51.9%2.6 pts

Attritional loss ratio - prior year2.4%(2.9%)5.3 pts

Catastrophe loss ratio - current year0.0%32.0%(32.0 pts)

Catastrophe loss ratio - prior year0.0%(1.8%)1.8 pts

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio56.9%79.2%(22.3 pts)

Acquisition cost ratio25.3%23.4%1.9 pts

Other underwriting expense ratio7.6%9.0%(1.4 pts)

Combined ratio89.8%111.6%(21.8 pts)

•Gross premiums written increased by $96.8 million, or 11.5%, to $940.1 million with an increase of $72.9 million, or 19.7%, in the International Segment, and $23.9 million, or 5.0%, in the Bermuda Segment.

•Net premiums written increased by $49.8 million, or 8.2%, to $653.7 million with an increase of $58.5 million, or 25.5%, in the International Segment, and a decrease of $8.7 million, or 2.3%, in the Bermuda Segment.

•Net premiums earned increased by $71.6 million, or 14.3%, to $570.5 million with an increase of $50.2 million, or 20.9%, in the International Segment, and $21.4 million, or 8.3%, in the Bermuda Segment.

•The attritional loss ratio (current year), net of reinsurance, was 54.5%. The increase of 2.6 points was primarily driven by a change in business mix, including an increase in casualty reinsurance and specialty insurance business.

•Net unfavorable attritional prior year reserve development, net of reinsurance, was $13.9 million, primarily driven by additional loss information in relation to the Baltimore Bridge collapse.

2

•Catastrophe losses (current and prior year), net of reinsurance, were $Nil compared to $150.5 million in the same period in 2025.

•The acquisition cost ratio increased by 1.9 points compared to the same period

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K BUY

Feb 19, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+5.57%

$30.94

Act: +3.79%

5D

+11.57%

$32.70

Act: +8.39%

20D

+14.64%

$33.60

Price: $29.31 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001593275-26-000007

hg-20260219false000159327500015932752026-02-192026-02-19

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549


FORM 8-K


CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 February 19, 2026 Date of Report (date of earliest event reported)


Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)


Bermuda (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) 001-41862 (Commission File Number) 98-1153847 (I.R.S. Employer Identification Number)

Wellesley House North, 1st Floor 90 Pitts Bay Road Pembroke, Bermuda HM 08

(Address of principal executive offices and zip code)

(441) 405-5200

(Registrant's telephone number, including area code)


Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

o Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

o Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

o Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

o Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class Trading Symbol Name of each exchange on which registered

Class B common shares, par value $0.01 per share HG New York Stock Exchange

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.                                Emerging growth company    o If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. o

Item 2.02 – Results of Operations and Financial Condition

On February 19, 2026, Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 and the availability of its corresponding supplementary financial information. Copies of this press release and the supplementary financial information are furnished as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, to this report. In addition, a copy of our investor presentation which may be referred to during our earnings call is furnished as Exhibit 99.3.

Item 8.01 - Other Events

As noted in the press release referenced in Item 2.02 above, the Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a special dividend of $2.00 per common share outstanding, which will result in an aggregate payment of approximately $206.0 million. The dividend is payable on March 30, 2026, to common shareholders of record on March 6, 2026.

As provided in General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information under Item 2.02 and the exhibits to this report are being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liability under that section, nor shall they be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing or other document under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing or document.

Item 9.01 - Financial Statements and Exhibits (d):The following exhibits are being filed herewith:

Exhibit No. Description

99.1 Press Release, dated February 19, 2026, issued by Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.

99.2 Supplementary Financial Information - December 31, 2025

99.3 Investor Presentation - December 31, 2025

104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

SIGNATURE

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

Date: February 19, 2026.

HAMILTON INSURANCE GROUP, LTD.

By: /s/ Brian Deegan

Name: Brian Deegan

Title: Group Chief Accounting Officer

About Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. Class B (HG) Earnings

This page provides Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. Class B (HG) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on HG's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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