Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns
1-Day Prediction
-4.39%
$60.00
0% positive prob.
5-Day Prediction
-6.12%
$58.92
0% positive prob.
20-Day Prediction
-2.93%
$60.92
0% positive prob.
| Quarter | Signal | 1D Return | 5D Return | 20D Return | Confidence | Actual 5D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | SELL | -4.39% | -6.12% | -2.93% | 100.0% | Pending |
| Q2 2026 | HOLD | -2.64% | -3.67% | -1.76% | 20.0% | +2.38% |
SEC 8-K filings with transcript text
Oct 28, 2026 · 100% conf.
1D
-4.39%
$60.00
Act: -0.62%
5D
-6.12%
$58.92
20D
-2.93%
$60.92
2 a2q32026ex99earningsrelease.htm
Document
Exhibit 99
PLANO, Texas, October 28, 2026 — Green Brick Partners, Inc. (NYSE: GRBK) (“Green Brick,” “we,” or the “Company”), today announced results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2026. Net income attributable to Green Brick in the third quarter was $59 million or $1.35 per diluted share, compared to net income attributable to Green Brick in the third quarter of 2025 of $78 million, or $1.77 per diluted share.
•Net new home orders of 926, up 3% year over year
•New home deliveries of 978, up 3% year over year
•Homebuilding gross margins of 28.0%
•Backlog of 629 homes with a dollar value of $379 million
•Home closing revenue of $437 million
•Book value of $46.10 per share increased 14% year over year
•Retired $50 million of 4.00% senior notes due August 2026
•Quarter-end liquidity of $325 million, including $100 million of cash
•Homebuilding debt to total capital of 13.1%; net homebuilding debt to total capital of 9.6%
•Cancellation rate of 8.2%
•Repurchased 264,215 shares of common stock for approximately $17.9 million
Jim Brickman, Co-CEO and Co-Founder said, "Our third quarter results demonstrate the resilience of Green Brick's differentiated operating model in a challenging housing environment. Despite continued affordability pressures, broader economic uncertainty and an increasing rate environment, demand across our markets remained resilient as buyers responded to our incentive strategy and attractive product offerings, particularly within Trophy Signature Homes. We continue to respond to deteriorating market conditions to maintain sales pace. Net new home orders of 926 was a 3% increase from the prior year, our sales pace declined slightly to 2.8 sales per community, and our cancellation rate was relatively low at 8.2%. While incentives on the company's growing new orders were elevated at 11% we were still able to maintain industry leading gross margins of 28.0%. We believe these results demonstrate the value of our communities and the ability of our operators to balance price, pace and profitability as market conditions evolve."
Jed Dolson, Co-CEO said, "Our third quarter results reflect disciplined execution, the continued growth of our Trophy Signature Homes brand in our core Texas markets, and the benefits of our long-standing strategy of owning and self-developing land in desirable infill and infill-adjacent submarkets. By securing land positions well in advance of home deliveries, we believe we have largely locked in our lot costs and are less exposed to inflation in finished lot pricing than many builders that rely primarily on third-party developers."
"Our financial services operations also continued to gain scale," added Mr. Dolson. "Financial services operating income for the quarter increased 69% year over year to $5.6 million and approximately $16 million for the first nine months of the year. Green Brick Mortgage continued to increase its capture in our core Texas markets, enhancing the homebuying experience while providing an additional source of earnings growth."
During the quarter, Green Brick retired $50 million of 4.00% senior notes and repurchased approximately $17.9 million of common stock while continuing to invest in our land pipeline. The company ended the quarter with $325 million of liquidity, homebuilding debt to total capital of 13.1% and net homebuilding debt to total capital of 9.6%, compared to 15.3% and 9.5%, respectively, over the prior year. At the same time, our owned lot position increased to 40,869 as of September 30, 2026, up 11.4% year over year and book value per share increased 14% to $46.10.
1
Mr. Brickman concluded, “We maintained a balance sheet with investment-grade characteristics, supported by low leverage, substantial liquidity, and significant financial flexibility, enabling Green Brick to remain patient and selective while continuing to invest through the current down-cycle. We believe our combination of resilient demand, differentiated margins, low leverage and a well-located land pipeline positions us to navigate the current environment and capitalize on future growth opportunities while continuing to generate attractive long-term returns for shareholders."
Results for the Quarter Ended September 30, 2026
(Dollars in thousands, except per share data)Three Months Ended September 30,
20262025Change
New homes delivered978 953 2.6 %
Total homebuilding revenues$437,043 $484,216 (9.7)%
Homebuilding cost of revenues 314,475 328,754 (4.3)%
Total gross profit$122,568 $155,462 (21.2)%
Income before income taxes$77,975 $106,635 (26.9)%
Net income attributable to Green Brick Partners, Inc.$59,160 $77,853 (24.0)%
Diluted net income attributable to Green Brick Partners, Inc. per common share$1.35 $1.77 (23.7)%
Residential units revenue$437,043 $484,216 (9.7)%
Average
Jul 29, 2026 · 20% conf.
1D
-2.64%
$69.64
Act: -1.96%
5D
-3.67%
$68.90
Act: +2.38%
20D
-1.76%
$70.27
2 a2q22026ex99earningsrelease.htm
Document
Exhibit 99
PLANO, Texas, July 29, 2026 — Green Brick Partners, Inc. (NYSE: GRBK) (“Green Brick,” “we,” or the “Company”), today announced results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2026. Net income attributable to Green Brick in the second quarter was $74 million or $1.70 per diluted share.
•Net new home orders of 1,079, up 19% year over year
•Backlog of 681 homes with a dollar value of $387 million
•New home deliveries of 1,047
•Home closing revenue of $471 million
•Delivered first homes in Houston
•Homebuilding gross margins of 29.8%
•Book value of $44.82 per share increased 16% year over year
•Liquidity of $462 million, inclusive of $132 million of cash
•Homebuilding debt to total capital of 11.2%; net homebuilding debt to total capital of 6.1%
•Repurchased 143,026 shares of common stock for approximately $9.4 million
Net new home orders increased 19% year over year to 1,079 units. Monthly sales pace for the second quarter was 3.3 sales per community, compared to 3.0 in the same period of the prior year. Incentives on new orders remain elevated at 9% as we continue to respond to market conditions to maintain sales pace. Our sales cancellation rate of 7.8% for the quarter remained among the lowest of our public company peers.
The Company delivered 1,047 new homes in the second quarter, which was relatively unchanged year over year, generating home closings revenue of $471 million. Homebuilding gross margin for the quarter was 29.8%, up 90 bps sequentially and down 150 bps year over year.
Jim Brickman, CEO and co-founder said, "Our second quarter results demonstrate the strength of Green Brick's differentiated operating model where our growth is focused on building in our large, self developed master planned neighborhoods where we believe we provide both affordability and upgraded amenities to our buyers."
"While affordability challenges and economic uncertainty continue to impact buyers, demand in our Texas markets remained strong. Our disciplined operators delivered a 19% year-over-year increase in net new home orders as buyers responded to our targeted incentive strategy and attractive product offerings, especially with our Trophy Signature Homes brand. We were particularly encouraged by the improvement in sales pace during the quarter. Orders exceeded deliveries, resulting in sequential backlog growth and positioning the company well for the second half of 2026."
"Our gross margins continue to be industry-leading and are a direct result of our disciplined land acquisition and development strategy. By concentrating on infill and infill-adjacent communities in high-demand submarkets, we continue to benefit from attractive locations, efficient development economics, and a competitive positioning that is difficult to replicate."
"We are also pleased with the progress of our financial services offerings, especially the growth of our wholly-owned mortgage company, Green Brick Mortgage" added Mr. Brickman. "Financial services operating income for the quarter increased 91% year over year to $5.7 million and exceeded $10 million year to date as Green Brick Mortgage continued to expand, reflecting increased scale and higher customer adoption across our platform. We believe our integrated financial services offering enhances the customer experience while creating an additional source of earnings growth."
1
"Total liquidity at quarter end was $462 million. The company's homebuilding debt-to-total capital ratio at quarter end was 11.2% and our net homebuilding debt-to-total capital ratio was 6.1%, compared to 14.4% and 9.4%, respectively, over the prior year. Despite having only 6% net homebuilding debt to total capital, our owned lot position grew from 37,023 lots at year-end to 39,588 lots as of June 30, 2026, an increase of 7% sequentially and a 11.6% increase year over year."
Mr. Brickman concluded, “We have worked hard to build an investment grade balance sheet that gives us flexibility. We believe our strong liquidity and disciplined capital strategy enable us to invest with confidence, remain selective in the opportunities we pursue, and position the Company to capitalize on future growth while continuing to generate attractive returns for shareholders.”
Results for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2026
(Dollars in thousands, except per share data)Three Months Ended June 30,
20262025Change
New homes delivered1,047 1,042 0.5 %
Total homebuilding revenues$481,596 $534,563 (9.9)%
Homebuilding cost of revenues 336,320 367,049 (8.4)%
Total gross profit$145,276 $167,514 (13.3)%
Income before income taxes$99,477 $112,288 (11.4)%
Net income attributable to Green Brick Partners, Inc.$74,170 $81,948 (9.5)%
Diluted net income attributable to Green Brick Partners, Inc. per common share$1.70 $1.85 (8.1)%
Residential units revenue$471,996
Feb 25, 2026
2 a2q42025ex99earningsrelease.htm
Document
Exhibit 99
•Earnings per diluted share of $1.78 and net income of $78 million
•New home deliveries of 1,038; second highest quarter on record
•Net new home orders of 883, a record for any fourth quarter
•Home closing revenue of $550 million, second highest quarter on record
•Homebuilding gross margins of 29.4%
•Repurchased 359 thousand shares of common stock for approximately $23 million
•Adopted a new share repurchase plan of $150 million
•Earnings per diluted share of $7.07 and net income of $313 million
•New home deliveries of 3,943; highest year on record
•Net new home orders of 3,795; highest year on record
•Home closings revenue of $2,091 million; highest year on record
•Full year homebuilding gross margins of 30.5%
•Repurchased 1.4 million shares of common stock for approximately $83 million
PLANO, Texas, February 25, 2026 — Green Brick Partners, Inc. (NYSE: GRBK) (“Green Brick,” “we,” or the “Company”), today announced record results for its fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025.
Net income attributable to Green Brick in the fourth quarter was $78 million or $1.78 per diluted share. The Company delivered 1,038 new homes in the fourth quarter, a 1.9% increase year over year, generating home closings revenue of $550 million. Homebuilding gross margin for Q4 2025 was 29.4%.
For the fiscal year 2025, net income attributable to Green Brick was $313 million or $7.07 per diluted share. We delivered 3,943 new homes with gross margins of 30.5%, resulting in nearly $2.1 billion in home closings revenue for the year.
Jim Brickman, CEO and co-founder said, “We delivered strong fourth quarter results despite ongoing affordability challenges faced by many buyers and softening consumer confidence. In our pursuit to maximize shareholder value, our management team’s continued focus and operating discipline once again resulted in peer-leading gross margins and top-tier returns, including achieving the best year in company history with regards to new home deliveries and home closings revenue. I would like to thank our team for their dedication and efforts that helped us reach these milestones in a year in which homebuilders faced significant headwinds.”
Net new home orders increased slightly over the fourth quarter 2024 to 883 units. Our monthly sales pace for Q4 2025 was 2.94 sales per community, compared to 2.76 in Q4 2024. Incentives on new orders were approximately 10% as we continued to respond to market conditions to maintain sales pace. Our sales cancellation rate of 7.6% for Q4 2025 remained among the lowest among our public company peers.
Mr. Brickman added, “Our continued focus on a disciplined sales strategy drove order growth and improved sales pace as we strategically adjusted incentives to address market conditions. Additionally, our gross margins of 30.5% for the full year continue to lead the public homebuilding industry, which we believe is a testament to our strong land position, our self-development strategy, and our focus on infill and infill-adjacent communities where there is strong demand and typically less competition.”
Cash increased to $154.6 million and we had no outstanding borrowings on our revolving credit facilities, resulting in total liquidity of approximately $520 million. Our homebuilding debt-to-total capital ratio was 12.8% and our net homebuilding debt-to-total capital
1
ratio was 6.3%, compared to 17.2% and 10.7% respectively at the end of 2024. Mr. Brickman concluded, “We continue to maintain strong liquidity as reflected in our fortress balance sheet, which we believe is a result of the discipline behind our capital strategy, giving us the flexibility to invest confidently in our growth and continue delivering meaningful value for our shareholders. We are proud to operate with one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry, positioning us exceptionally well for the opportunities ahead.”
Results for the Quarter Ended December 31, 2025:
(Dollars in thousands, except per share data)Three Months Ended December 31,
20252024Change
New homes delivered1,038 1,019 1.9 %
Total revenues$552,612 $567,314 (2.6)%
Total cost of revenues390,567 373,279 4.6 %
Total gross profit$162,045 $194,035 (16.5)%
Income before income taxes$113,107 $138,094 (18.1)%
Net income attributable to Green Brick Partners, Inc.$78,365 $103,813 (24.5)%
Diluted net income attributable to Green Brick Partners, Inc. per common share$1.78 $2.31 (22.9)%
Residential units revenue$549,960 $556,855 (1.2)%
Average sales price of homes delivered$529.6 $546.5 (3.1)%
Homebuilding gross margin percentage29.4 %34.3 %-490 bps
Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of residential units revenue10.6 %10.9 %-30 bps
Backlog revenue$354,328 $495,883 (28.5)%
Homes under
This page provides Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.
Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on GRBK's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.