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AI Earnings Predictions for Gevo Inc. (GEVO)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-6.22%

$1.35

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-13.02%

$1.25

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-5.21%

$1.36

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $1.44 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q2 2026 SELL -6.22% -13.02% -5.21% 100.0% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL -5.45% -12.62% -3.14% 100.0% -15.76%
Q4 2025 BUY +9.67% +16.39% +6.10% 100.0% Pending
Q3 2025 SELL -6.12% -12.92% -4.69% 100.0% -10.85%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Aug 6, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-6.22%

$1.35

Act: +9.03%

5D

-13.02%

$1.25

20D

-5.21%

$1.36

Price: $1.44 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001628280-26-054278

EX-99.1

2 gevo_q2x2026-ex991.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

Gevo Reports Second Quarter Results and Raises Financial Expectations for Full-Year 2026

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. – August 6, 2026 – Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO), a leader in renewable fuels, chemicals and carbon management, today announced its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30 and provided an update on its 2026 outlook, cash-flow expectations and strategic priorities.

“Gevo delivered strong second quarter operational results and unlocked significant carbon business revenue that is expected to begin in the third quarter, which supports increased expectations of full-year non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA1 outlook of more than $60 million,” said Gevo Chief Executive Officer Paul Bloom. “We have a strong, returns-focused business. Our carbon business strategy is working and Gevo North Dakota is a strategic asset for profitable growth. Exiting our ATJ-60 project in South Dakota and other non-core projects and recognizing a one-time, non-cash impairment reflects our disciplined approach to prioritize the most attractive near-term growth while enabling long-term value creation.”

Financial Highlights

•Revenue of $47 million in the second quarter of 2026, which was affected by our annual planned downtime for maintenance that was completed in April. We do not expect any further operational downtime this year.

•Gross profit of $36 million in the six months ended June 30, 2026, compared to $21 million in the same period last year, an increase that reflects six full months of benefit from the acquired Red Trail Energy, LLC assets as well as a strengthening of the Company's core businesses.

•Net loss attributable to Gevo of $(177) million, or $(0.75) per share in the second quarter of 2026. Non-GAAP adjusted net loss attributable to Gevo2 was $(1) million, or $(0.01) per share.

◦The second quarter 2026 net loss attributable to Gevo includes a one-time, non-cash impairment charge of $176 million3 related to capitalized development costs associated with the Company’s ATJ-60 project and other non-core business activities.

◦This one-time, non-cash impairment charge reflects the Company’s decision to exit all activities related to low-carbon ethanol and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production in Lake Preston, South Dakota to focus on capital projects at Gevo North Dakota, including debottlenecking, the potential expansion of the ethanol plant to double capacity, and SAF production.

•Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA1 of $11 million in the second quarter of 2026.

◦Our second quarter results did not include revenue relating to the Company’s recently approved new Canada Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) pathway, which is expected to be included starting in the third quarter of 2026.

Business and Operations Highlights

“Gevo has a powerful growth platform centered on commodities, carbon and incentives,” said Bloom. “We have focused development around our existing operations, improving margins and near-term cash flow, with a portfolio of growth projects that we believe will create substantial shareholder value.”

•Improved full year 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA1 outlook: Gevo now expects full year 2026 non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA1 to be greater than $60 million, which is more than double the prior target of $30 million. The improved outlook is supported by:

◦Canada Clean Fuel Regulation Pathway: Approval of the Company’s new Canada CFR pathway in the second quarter of 2026 creates a large, additional compliance market opportunity for Gevo’s low-carbon ethanol, including recognition of credits associated with qualifying volumes previously delivered into that market. Gevo expects sales under this new pathway to be included in the Company’s third quarter 2026 financial results.

◦Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credits: Gevo is targeting monetization of more than $70 million in Section 45Z tax credits during 2026 compared to $52 million last year, as a result of continued low-carbon ethanol and renewable natural gas (RNG) production and improvements in the carbon intensity of those products.

◦Strong Operating Performance: Continued strong operating performance at Gevo North Dakota, expected sales growth from low-carbon racing fuel blendstock for high-end motorsports and demonstration-scale SAF, and cost management initiatives.

•Increased cash flow: The Company expects substantial operating cash flow in the third and fourth quarters of 2026, supported by the improved 2026 non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA1 outlook and more than $70 million in expected Section 45Z tax credit monetizations for the full year 2026, of which $20 million in sales closed subsequent to the second quarter of 2026 and the remaining $50 million in sales and associated cash proceeds are targeted by year end.

•Debottlenecking: Site improvement efforts at Gevo North Dakota remain on track, with debottlenecking activities expected to deliver increased low-carbon ethanol, coproduct, carbon capture and ass

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

May 7, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-5.45%

$1.92

Act: -11.58%

5D

-12.62%

$1.77

Act: -15.76%

20D

-3.14%

$1.97

Act: -19.72%

Price: $2.03 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001392380-26-000012

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2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K BUY

Mar 5, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+9.67%

$2.08

Act: +13.16%

5D

+16.39%

$2.21

20D

+6.10%

$2.01

Price: $1.90 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001392380-26-000003

Gevo, Inc._March 5, 2026 0001392380false00013923802026-03-052026-03-05 ​

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549 ​

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): March 5, 2026 ​ Gevo, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) ​ ​ ​

Delaware 001-35073 87-0747704

(State or other jurisdiction (Commission File Number) (IRS Employer

of incorporation) ​ Identification No.)

​ ​

345 Inverness Drive South, Building C, Suite 310 Englewood, CO 80112

(Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)

​ Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (303) 858-8358 N/A (Former name or former address, if changed since last report) ​ Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions: ​ ​

☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

​ Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: ​

Title of each class

​ ​ ​

Trading symbol

​ ​ ​

Name of exchange on which registered

Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share ​

GEVO

​ The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC

​ Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐ ​ ​ ​

Item 2.02. Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 5, 2026, Gevo, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits. (d) Exhibits. ​ ​

Exhibit No.

​ ​ ​

Description

99.1

Earnings press release, dated March 5, 2026

104

Cover Page Interactive Data File (Formatted as Inline XBRL)

​ ​ ​ ​

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. ​ ​

GEVO, INC.

Date: March 5, 2026

By:

/s/ E. Cabell Massey

E. Cabell Massey

Vice President, Legal and Corporate Secretary

​ ​

About Gevo Inc. (GEVO) Earnings

This page provides Gevo Inc. (GEVO) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on GEVO's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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