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AI Earnings Predictions for Gevo Inc. (GEVO)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-5.97%

$1.32

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-12.96%

$1.22

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-5.19%

$1.33

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $1.40 Confidence: 99.1% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q3 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q3 2026 SELL -5.97% -12.96% -5.19% 99.1% Pending
Q2 2026 SELL -6.22% -13.02% -5.21% 100.0% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL -5.45% -12.62% -3.14% 100.0% -15.76%
Q4 2025 BUY +9.67% +16.39% +6.10% 100.0% Pending
Q3 2025 SELL -6.12% -12.92% -4.69% 100.0% -10.85%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q3

Q3 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Nov 10, 2026 · 99% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-5.97%

$1.32

Act: +27.14%

5D

-12.96%

$1.22

20D

-5.19%

$1.33

Price: $1.40 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001628280-26-072717

EX-99.1

2 gevo_q3x2026-ex991x8k.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

Gevo Reports Record Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results

Gevo Carbon Business Drives Net Income of $23 million and Adjusted EBITDA1 of $44 million for Third Quarter

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. – November 10, 2026 – Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) today announced its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, reporting record revenue of $83 million, net income of $23 million, non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA1 of $44 million and cash flow from operations of $41 million.

“The quarter marked our strongest financial performance to date, with record revenue, net income, Adjusted EBITDA1 and cash flow from operations,” said Gevo Chief Executive Officer Paul Bloom. “We said we would build a carbon business that stands on its own in 2026. These results show it’s working. By selling into both compliance and voluntary carbon markets, we’ve built a durable business from the carbon we capture and store today, contributing to both revenue and cash flow, ending the third quarter with $68 million in cash and setting the stage for our next phase of growth.”

Third Quarter 2026 Financial Highlights

•Revenue of $83 million in the third quarter of 2026, compared to $43 million in the same quarter last year.

◦The quarter included approximately $29.4 million of revenue from sales of Canadian Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) credits, the majority of which had been generated in 2025 and the first half of 2026.

•Gross profit of $48 million in the third quarter of 2026, compared to $13 million in the same quarter last year.

•Net income attributable to Gevo of $23 million, or $0.09 per share on a diluted basis in the third quarter of 2026, compared to a net loss of $8 million in the same quarter last year. Non-GAAP adjusted net income attributable to Gevo2 was $29 million, or $0.12 per share, in the third quarter of 2026, compared to an adjusted net loss attributable to Gevo of $5 million, or $0.02 per share, in the same quarter last year.

•Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA1 of $44 million in the third quarter of 2026, compared to $7 million in the same quarter last year.

•Cash flow from operations of $41 million in the third quarter of 2026 and $12 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2026.

•Ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $68 million.

Business and Operations Highlights

“Gevo has a powerful growth platform built on low-carbon fuels, carbon and maximizing incentives,” said Bloom. “We have focused development around our existing operations, improving margins and near-term cash flow, with a portfolio of growth projects we believe will create substantial shareholder value.”

•Improved non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA1 outlook: Gevo now expects full year 2026 non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA1 to be greater than $90 million and 2027 non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA1 to be greater than $70 million. The improved outlook is supported by:

◦Non-recurring revenue of approximately $20 million from banked CFR credits recognized in the third quarter of 2026.

◦Recent improvements to the 45ZCF GREET model for renewable natural gas (RNG) that provides greater recognition for avoided methane emissions from dairy manure, which we expect to create more than $10 million of additional 45Z value to our gross profit from our existing RNG assets annually, based on current estimates and subject to third-party validation.

•Carbon business: As announced in October, Gevo expects its carbon business to generate more than $50 million of revenue in 2026.

◦The carbon business generates revenue based on the volume of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) Gevo delivers to regulatory and voluntary carbon credits, and the average realized price of carbon across those various markets.

•Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit monetization: In October, Gevo announced that it had contracted sales of $70 million worth of Section 45Z tax credits, representing substantially all of its expected credits from ethanol and RNG production for 2026. Gevo expects these sales to grow further in 2027, as a result of increased production from its debottlenecking project.

•Debottlenecking: The Company is nearing completion of its debottlenecking project at Gevo North Dakota, which is expected to increase low-carbon ethanol production to a nameplate capacity of approximately 75 million gallons per year, plus associated coproducts, carbon capture and incentives. The project remains on track for completion by year-end 2026.

•Expansion: The Company made progress to secure financing for an expansion that would approximately double low-carbon ethanol production and carbon capture, starting in 2028, and secured long lead time capital equipment in the third quarter.

•Project Northstar: The Company continues its path of securing sufficient fixed or floor price commercial offtake agreements for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to enable Project Northstar (also known as ATJ-30), a long-term initiative to convert a porti

2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Aug 6, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-6.22%

$1.35

Act: +9.03%

5D

-13.02%

$1.25

20D

-5.21%

$1.36

Price: $1.44 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001628280-26-054278

EX-99.1

2 gevo_q2x2026-ex991.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

Gevo Reports Second Quarter Results and Raises Financial Expectations for Full-Year 2026

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. – August 6, 2026 – Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO), a leader in renewable fuels, chemicals and carbon management, today announced its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30 and provided an update on its 2026 outlook, cash-flow expectations and strategic priorities.

“Gevo delivered strong second quarter operational results and unlocked significant carbon business revenue that is expected to begin in the third quarter, which supports increased expectations of full-year non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA1 outlook of more than $60 million,” said Gevo Chief Executive Officer Paul Bloom. “We have a strong, returns-focused business. Our carbon business strategy is working and Gevo North Dakota is a strategic asset for profitable growth. Exiting our ATJ-60 project in South Dakota and other non-core projects and recognizing a one-time, non-cash impairment reflects our disciplined approach to prioritize the most attractive near-term growth while enabling long-term value creation.”

Financial Highlights

•Revenue of $47 million in the second quarter of 2026, which was affected by our annual planned downtime for maintenance that was completed in April. We do not expect any further operational downtime this year.

•Gross profit of $36 million in the six months ended June 30, 2026, compared to $21 million in the same period last year, an increase that reflects six full months of benefit from the acquired Red Trail Energy, LLC assets as well as a strengthening of the Company's core businesses.

•Net loss attributable to Gevo of $(177) million, or $(0.75) per share in the second quarter of 2026. Non-GAAP adjusted net loss attributable to Gevo2 was $(1) million, or $(0.01) per share.

◦The second quarter 2026 net loss attributable to Gevo includes a one-time, non-cash impairment charge of $176 million3 related to capitalized development costs associated with the Company’s ATJ-60 project and other non-core business activities.

◦This one-time, non-cash impairment charge reflects the Company’s decision to exit all activities related to low-carbon ethanol and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production in Lake Preston, South Dakota to focus on capital projects at Gevo North Dakota, including debottlenecking, the potential expansion of the ethanol plant to double capacity, and SAF production.

•Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA1 of $11 million in the second quarter of 2026.

◦Our second quarter results did not include revenue relating to the Company’s recently approved new Canada Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) pathway, which is expected to be included starting in the third quarter of 2026.

Business and Operations Highlights

“Gevo has a powerful growth platform centered on commodities, carbon and incentives,” said Bloom. “We have focused development around our existing operations, improving margins and near-term cash flow, with a portfolio of growth projects that we believe will create substantial shareholder value.”

•Improved full year 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA1 outlook: Gevo now expects full year 2026 non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA1 to be greater than $60 million, which is more than double the prior target of $30 million. The improved outlook is supported by:

◦Canada Clean Fuel Regulation Pathway: Approval of the Company’s new Canada CFR pathway in the second quarter of 2026 creates a large, additional compliance market opportunity for Gevo’s low-carbon ethanol, including recognition of credits associated with qualifying volumes previously delivered into that market. Gevo expects sales under this new pathway to be included in the Company’s third quarter 2026 financial results.

◦Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credits: Gevo is targeting monetization of more than $70 million in Section 45Z tax credits during 2026 compared to $52 million last year, as a result of continued low-carbon ethanol and renewable natural gas (RNG) production and improvements in the carbon intensity of those products.

◦Strong Operating Performance: Continued strong operating performance at Gevo North Dakota, expected sales growth from low-carbon racing fuel blendstock for high-end motorsports and demonstration-scale SAF, and cost management initiatives.

•Increased cash flow: The Company expects substantial operating cash flow in the third and fourth quarters of 2026, supported by the improved 2026 non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA1 outlook and more than $70 million in expected Section 45Z tax credit monetizations for the full year 2026, of which $20 million in sales closed subsequent to the second quarter of 2026 and the remaining $50 million in sales and associated cash proceeds are targeted by year end.

•Debottlenecking: Site improvement efforts at Gevo North Dakota remain on track, with debottlenecking activities expected to deliver increased low-carbon ethanol, coproduct, carbon capture and ass

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

May 7, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-5.45%

$1.92

Act: -11.58%

5D

-12.62%

$1.77

Act: -15.76%

20D

-3.14%

$1.97

Act: -19.72%

Price: $2.03 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001392380-26-000012

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About Gevo Inc. (GEVO) Earnings

This page provides Gevo Inc. (GEVO) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on GEVO's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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