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AI Earnings Predictions for Fastenal Company (FAST)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+2.36%

$52.64

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+3.11%

$53.03

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+5.55%

$54.29

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $51.43 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q3 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q3 2026 BUY +2.36% +3.11% +5.55% 100.0% Pending
Q2 2026 BUY +2.36% +3.11% +5.55% 100.0% -1.60%
Q4 2025 BUY +2.15% +3.11% +5.34% 100.0% +3.12%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q3

Q3 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Oct 14, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+2.36%

$52.64

Act: -3.12%

5D

+3.11%

$53.03

20D

+5.55%

$54.29

Price: $51.43 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0000815556-26-000046

EX-99.1

2 ex_99109302026earningsrele.htm

PRESS RELEASE

Document

EXHIBIT 99.1

Fastenal Company Reports 2026 Third Quarter Earnings

•Daily sales increased 15.5% year-over-year, primarily driven by share gains with larger customers, pricing actions, and broad-based demand across core end markets.

•Operating margin was 21.5%, a 90 basis point improvement year-over-year, as selling, general, and administrative expense leverage more than offset customer mix-related gross margin pressure.

•Operating cash flow was $422 million, representing 105% of net income, reflecting the timing of working capital changes associated with strong sales growth.

•Returned $328 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, representing 82% of net income.

•Continued progress on strategic initiatives, including increased sales effectiveness through key account wins, expansion of digital technologies, and deeper penetration through new customer site growth.

WINONA, Minn., October 14, 2026 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Fastenal Company (Nasdaq:FAST) ('Fastenal,' 'we,' 'our,' or 'us'), a global leader in supply chain services, today reported results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. Results reflected strong daily sales growth, operating expense leverage, and continued growth with larger customers supported by our Onsite, digital, and supply chain solutions. Except for share and per share information, or as otherwise noted, amounts are stated in millions. Percentage and dollar calculations, which are based on non-rounded dollar values, may not be recalculated or footed using the dollar values included in this document due to the rounding of those dollar values.

PERFORMANCE SUMMARY

Nine-month PeriodThree-month Period

20262025Change20262025Change

Net sales$7,051.9 6,173.1 14.2%$2,463.3 2,133.3 15.5%

Business days191 191 64 64

Daily sales$36.9 32.3 14.2%$38.5 33.3 15.5%

Gross profit$3,151.3 2,792.5 12.8%$1,104.7 965.8 14.4%

% of net sales44.7%45.2%44.8%45.3%

Selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses $1,671.1 1,521.1 9.9%$573.9 524.3 9.4%

% of net sales23.7%24.6%23.3%24.6%

Operating income$1,480.2 1,271.4 16.4%$530.8 441.5 20.2%

% of net sales21.0%20.6%21.5%20.7%

Income before income taxes$1,481.6 1,270.4 16.6%$531.2 440.6 20.6%

% of net sales21.0%20.6%21.6%20.7%

Net income$1,124.2 964.4 16.6%$401.6 335.5 19.7%

Diluted net income per share$0.98 0.84 16.5%$0.35 0.29 19.8%

Note – Daily sales rate (DSR) is defined as the total net sales for the period divided by the number of business days (in the U.S.) in the period.

QUARTERLY RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

Sales

Net sales increased $330.0, or 15.5%, in the third quarter of 2026 when compared to the third quarter of 2025 (both periods had the same number of business days). Sales performance reflects the contribution from improved customer contract signings since the first quarter of 2024, product pricing, and a modest improvement in industrial production in the first nine months of 2026. Foreign exchange rates negatively impacted sales growth by approximately 10 basis points in the third quarter of 2026 as compared to the third quarter of 2025 when foreign exchange rates contributed approximately 10 basis points to sales growth. The impact of product pricing on net sales in the third quarter of 2026 was an increase of approximately 240 basis points, compared to an increase of 240 to 270 basis points in the third quarter of 2025.

From a product portfolio standpoint, we classify our offerings into four primary categories: fasteners, safety supplies, cutting tools, and other product lines. 'Other product lines' encompasses seven smaller product segments, including tools and janitorial supplies.

1

Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2025, we expanded our reporting to provide a more comprehensive view of direct (original equipment manufacturing/production) and indirect (maintenance, repair, and operations/facilities maintenance) business across product categories. Direct materials generally include products incorporated into finished goods or that directly support customers' production processes, while indirect materials support customers' facility operations, maintenance, and safety needs. During the third quarter of 2026, direct materials outpaced indirect materials, reflecting greater contribution from fastener sales and continued strength with manufacturing customers.

The DSR change when compared to the same period in the prior year and the percent of sales in the period were as follows:

DSR Change

Three-month Period

% of Sales

Three-month Period

2026202520262025

Direct fasteners/hardware16.8%15.3%21.0%20.9%

Direct cutting tools and abrasives19.5%13.4%5.4%5.2%

Direct non-fasteners/hardware21.2%12.9%13.3%12.8%

Total direct materials18.6%14.2%39.8%38.9%

Indirect fasteners/hardware7.6%15.3%9.3%10.0%

Indirect safety13.0%10.6%20.8%21.4%

Indirect non-fasteners/hardware and non-safety17.5%8.7%30.1%29.7%

Total indirect materials14.3%10.

2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Jul 14, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+2.36%

$46.82

Act: -0.83%

5D

+3.11%

$47.16

Act: -1.60%

20D

+5.55%

$48.28

Price: $45.74 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0000815556-26-000037

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2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K

Apr 13, 2026

0000815556-26-000019

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About Fastenal Company (FAST) Earnings

This page provides Fastenal Company (FAST) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on FAST's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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