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AI Earnings Predictions for Elastic N.V. (ESTC)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+9.84%

$63.07

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+10.39%

$63.38

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+6.87%

$61.36

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $57.41 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q1 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q1 2026 BUY +9.84% +10.39% +6.87% 100.0% +13.33%
Q4 2025 BUY +9.79% +10.33% +6.83% 98.8% -13.90%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

May 28, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+9.84%

$63.07

Act: +12.51%

5D

+10.39%

$63.38

Act: +13.33%

20D

+6.87%

$61.36

Act: -2.38%

Price: $57.41 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001707753-26-000008

EX-99.1

2 a26q4erex991.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

Elastic Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2026 Financial Results

Q4 Revenue of $451 million, up 16% year-over-year

FY26 Revenue of $1.739 billion, up 17% year-over-year

SAN FRANCISCO, May 28, 2026 -- Elastic (NYSE: ESTC), the Search AI Company, announced financial results for its fourth quarter and full fiscal year ended April 30, 2026.

Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2026 Financial Highlights

•Total revenue was $451 million, an increase of 16% year-over-year, or 14% on a constant currency basis

•Total subscription revenue was $422 million, an increase of 17% year-over-year, or 15% on a constant currency basis

•Sales-led subscription revenue (calculated as subscription revenue excluding Monthly Elastic Cloud) was $375 million, an increase of 19% year-over-year, or 16% on a constant currency basis

•Current remaining performance obligations were $1.203 billion, an increase of 20% year-over-year, as reported and on a constant currency basis

•Remaining performance obligations were $1.982 billion, an increase of 28% year-over-year, or 27% on a constant currency basis

•GAAP operating loss was $16 million; GAAP operating margin was -4%

•Non-GAAP operating income was $67 million; non-GAAP operating margin was 14.8%

•GAAP diluted earnings per share was $4.14; non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $0.61

•Operating cash flow was $153 million with adjusted free cash flow of $150 million

•Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were $1.370 billion as of April 30, 2026

Full Fiscal 2026 Financial Highlights

•Total revenue was $1.739 billion, an increase of 17% year-over-year, or 16% on a constant currency basis

•Total subscription revenue was $1.634 billion, an increase of 18% year-over-year, or 17% on a constant currency basis

•Sales-led subscription revenue (calculated as subscription revenue excluding Monthly Elastic Cloud) was $1.438 billion, an increase of 20% year-over-year, or 18% on a constant currency basis

•GAAP operating loss was $33 million; GAAP operating margin was -2%

•Non-GAAP operating income was $285 million; non-GAAP operating margin was 16.4%

•GAAP diluted earnings per share was $3.43(1); non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $2.57

•Operating cash flow was $327 million with adjusted free cash flow of $346 million

•Rule of 40 was 37%, calculated as the sum of fiscal 2026 year-over-year total revenue growth of 17% and fiscal 2026 adjusted free cash flow margin of 20%

“Elastic delivered a strong finish to the year, beating our guidance across all key metrics,” said Ash Kulkarni, chief executive officer, Elastic. “Organizations are increasingly abandoning fragmented legacy applications to consolidate onto our high-performance platform for search, security, and observability. Customers are making larger commitments to Elastic over longer periods of time as we become a critical part of their AI infrastructure, accelerating our cRPO and RPO growth in Q4, setting us up for ongoing success.”

Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2026 Key Metrics and Recent Business Highlights

Key Customer Metrics

•Total customer count with Annual Contract Value (ACV) greater than $100,000 was over 1,720 compared to over 1,660 in Q3 FY26, and over 1,510 in Q4 FY25

•Net Expansion Rate was approximately 112%

Product Innovations and Updates

•Delivered native Prometheus and PromQL support to Elastic Observability, enabling Site Reliability Engineers to analyze Prometheus metrics alongside logs and traces in a single platform, without rewriting queries or rebuilding pipelines

•Launched MCP Apps in public preview, bringing first-of-their-kind agent-native UI experiences for security and observability workflows into third-party AI tools, enabling teams to act on data directly where they work, with additional capabilities for search and data exploration

•Introduced the Jina v5 Omni family, a new family of multimodal embedding models with the ability to represent text, images, video, and audio as vectors

•Selected by Google as a critical security partner for GDC air-gapped, delivering embedded security analytics, automation, and XDR capabilities for customers to secure sensitive data in highly restricted environments

•Introduced Elastic Workflows in general availability, a native automation capability with direct access to alerts, cases, and investigation data, now built directly into Elastic Security

•Added Jina Embeddings v3 in Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform Model Garden, enabling organizations to deploy high-performance retrieval models directly within their own cloud environments

Other Business Highlights

•Achieved Federal Risk and Authorization Management Program (FedRAMP®) High authorization for Elastic Cloud Hosted on AWS GovCloud (US)

•Awarded the 2026 Google Cloud Partner of the Year Award for Marketplace Category for Data Management & AI

•Achieved EU-US Data Privacy Framework and ISO 27701

•Engaged with thousands of customers and partners

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K BUY

Feb 26, 2026 · 99% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+9.79%

$67.61

Act: -16.44%

5D

+10.33%

$67.94

Act: -13.90%

20D

+6.83%

$65.79

Price: $61.58 Prob +5D: 99% AUC: 1.000
0001707753-26-000003

estc-20260226false000170775300017077532026-02-262026-02-26

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): February 26, 2026

Elastic N.V. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

The Netherlands (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)

001-38675

(Commission File Number)

98-1756035

(I.R.S. Employer Identification Number)

Not Applicable1 (Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: Not Applicable1

Not Applicable (Former name or former address if changed since last report.)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions: ☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each classTrading Symbol(s)Name of each exchange of which registered Ordinary Shares, €0.01 Par ValueESTCThe New York Stock Exchange

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§ 230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§ 240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.  ☐

1 We are a distributed company. Accordingly, we do not have a principal executive office. For purposes of compliance with applicable requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, any shareholder communication required to be sent to our principal executive offices may be directed to the email address ir@elastic.co or to Elastic N.V., 88 Kearny St., Floor 19, San Francisco, CA 94108.

Item 2.02. Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On February 26, 2026, Elastic N.V. (“Elastic” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its third quarter ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.

The information above, including Exhibit 99.1, is “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing.

Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits. (d)Exhibits

Exhibit Description 99.1 Press Release dated February 26, 2026

104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

SIGNATURE

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

Dated: February 26, 2026

ELASTIC N.V.

By:/s/ Navam Welihinda Name:Navam Welihinda Title:Chief Financial Officer

2025
Q3

Q3 2025 Earnings

8-K

Nov 20, 2025

0001707753-25-000053

estc-20251120false000170775300017077532025-11-202025-11-20

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): November 20, 2025

Elastic N.V. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

The Netherlands (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)

001-38675

(Commission File Number)

98-1756035

(I.R.S. Employer Identification Number)

Not Applicable1 (Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: Not Applicable1

Not Applicable (Former name or former address if changed since last report.)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions: ☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each classTrading Symbol(s)Name of each exchange of which registered Ordinary Shares, €0.01 Par ValueESTCThe New York Stock Exchange

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§ 230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§ 240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.  ☐

1 We are a distributed company. Accordingly, we do not have a principal executive office. For purposes of compliance with applicable requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, any shareholder communication required to be sent to our principal executive offices may be directed to the email address ir@elastic.co or to Elastic N.V., 88 Kearny St., Floor 19, San Francisco, CA 94108.

Item 2.02. Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On November 20, 2025, Elastic N.V. (“Elastic” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its second quarter ended October 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.

The information above, including Exhibit 99.1, is “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing.

Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits. (d)Exhibits

Exhibit Description 99.1 Press Release dated November 20, 2025

104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

SIGNATURE

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

Dated: November 20, 2025

ELASTIC N.V.

By:/s/ Navam Welihinda Name:Navam Welihinda Title:Chief Financial Officer

About Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Earnings

This page provides Elastic N.V. (ESTC) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on ESTC's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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