Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns
1-Day Prediction
+3.12%
$258.44
100% positive prob.
5-Day Prediction
+8.71%
$272.45
100% positive prob.
20-Day Prediction
+7.88%
$270.36
95% positive prob.
| Quarter | Signal | 1D Return | 5D Return | 20D Return | Confidence | Actual 5D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | BUY | +3.12% | +8.71% | +7.88% | 100.0% | Pending |
| Q2 2026 | SELL | -7.37% | -9.07% | -5.62% | 100.0% | Pending |
| Q1 2026 | SELL | -7.71% | -8.33% | -4.59% | 100.0% | -12.04% |
| Q4 2025 | SELL | -7.71% | -8.33% | -4.59% | 100.0% | +1.13% |
SEC 8-K filings with transcript text
Oct 29, 2026 · 100% conf.
1D
+3.12%
$258.44
Act: +4.93%
5D
+8.71%
$272.45
20D
+7.88%
$270.36
2 ex-99109302026.htm
Document
Exhibit 99.1
Erie Indemnity Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results
Net Income per Diluted Share was $3.48 for the Quarter and $9.80 for the Nine Months of 2026
Erie, Pa., October 29, 2026 - Erie Indemnity Company (NASDAQ: ERIE) today announced financial results for the quarter and nine months ending September 30, 2026. Net income was $182.0 million, or $3.48 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2026, compared to $182.9 million, or $3.50 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2025. Net income was $512.8 million, or $9.80 per diluted share, in the first nine months of 2026, compared to $496.0 million, or $9.48 per diluted share, in the first nine months of 2025.
3Q and Nine Months 2026
(in thousands)3Q'263Q'2520262025
Operating income$207,382 $208,921 $578,292 $559,470
Investment income19,877 21,554 64,549 60,690
Other income5,496 2,286 8,317 8,094
Income before income taxes232,755 232,761 651,158 628,254
Income tax expense50,766 49,908 138,401 132,299
Net income$181,989 $182,853 $512,757 $495,955
3Q 2026 Highlights
Operating income before taxes decreased $1.5 million, or 0.7 percent, in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the third quarter of 2025.
•Management fee revenue - policy issuance and renewal services increased $21.7 million, or 2.6 percent, in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the third quarter of 2025.
•Management fee revenue - administrative services increased $0.9 million, or 4.7 percent, in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the third quarter of 2025.
•Cost of operations - policy issuance and renewal services
◦Commissions increased $24.0 million in the third quarter of 2026, compared to the third quarter of 2025, primarily driven by an increase in agent incentive compensation and the growth in direct and affiliated assumed written premium.
◦Non-commission expense decreased $1.1 million in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the third quarter of 2025. Personnel costs increased $1.6 million primarily due to higher healthcare costs. Sales and advertising increased $1.8 million primarily due to an increase in agent-related costs. Acquisition and underwriting support costs decreased $5.8 million primarily due to lower postage and underwriting report costs. Technology and infrastructure costs increased $6.9 million primarily due to higher costs associated with technology initiatives, including internal-use software impairments, depreciation and amortization expense, and cloud usage costs.
Administrative and other costs decreased $5.5 million primarily due to lower credit card processing fees.
Income from investments before taxes totaled $19.9 million in the third quarter of 2026 compared to $21.6 million in the third quarter of 2025. Net investment income was $25.4 million in the third quarter of 2026 compared to $21.0 million in the third quarter of 2025. Net realized and unrealized investment losses were $5.4 million in the third quarter of 2026 compared to gains of $1.3 million in the third quarter of 2025.
Nine Months 2026 Highlights
Operating income before taxes increased $18.8 million, or 3.4 percent, in the first nine months of 2026 compared to the first nine months of 2025.
•Management fee revenue - policy issuance and renewal services increased $92.1 million, or 3.8 percent, in the first nine months of 2026 compared to the first nine months of 2025.
•Management fee revenue - administrative services increased $4.0 million, or 7.4 percent, in the first nine months of 2026 compared to the first nine months of 2025.
•Cost of operations - policy issuance and renewal services
◦Commissions increased $96.6 million in the first nine months of 2026 compared to the first nine months of 2025, primarily driven by an increase in agent incentive compensation and the growth in direct and affiliated assumed written premium.
◦Non-commission expense decreased $20.7 million in the first nine months of 2026 compared to the first nine months of 2025. Personnel costs increased $6.7 million primarily due to increased incentive compensation driven by stronger performance metrics, and higher base compensation. The increase is partially offset by bonuses awarded to all employees in 2025 in recognition of our 100th anniversary. Acquisition and underwriting support costs decreased $11.5 million primarily due to lower underwriting report and postage costs. Technology and infrastructure costs increased $7.4 million primarily due to higher depreciation and amortization expense from technology initiatives. Professional fees decreased $12.1 million primarily due to reduced use of third-party services related to technology initiatives. Administrative and other costs decreased $9.2 million primarily due to lower credit card processing fees and charitable contributions related to the transition of charitable giving through the Erie Insurance Foundation.
Income from investments before taxes totaled $64.5 million in the firs
Jul 30, 2026 · 100% conf.
1D
-7.37%
$216.45
Act: +3.40%
5D
-9.07%
$212.47
20D
-5.62%
$220.54
2 ex-99106302026.htm
Document
Exhibit 99.1
Erie Indemnity Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
Net Income per Diluted Share was $3.45 for the Quarter and $6.32 for the Six Months of 2026
Erie, Pa., July 30, 2026 - Erie Indemnity Company (NASDAQ: ERIE) today announced financial results for the quarter and six months ending June 30, 2026. Net income was $180.3 million, or $3.45 per diluted share, in the second quarter of 2026, compared to $174.7 million, or $3.34 per diluted share, in the second quarter of 2025. Net income was $330.8 million, or $6.32 per diluted share, in the first six months of 2026, compared to $313.1 million, or $5.99 per diluted share, in the first six months of 2025.
2Q and First Half 2026
(in thousands)2Q'262Q'251H'261H'25
Operating income$204,123 $199,173 $370,910 $350,549
Investment income22,553 19,600 44,672 39,136
Other income1,401 1,974 2,821 5,808
Income before income taxes228,077 220,747 418,403 395,493
Income tax expense47,783 46,062 87,635 82,391
Net income$180,294 $174,685 $330,768 $313,102
2Q 2026 Highlights
Operating income before taxes increased $5.0 million, or 2.5 percent, in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the second quarter of 2025.
•Management fee revenue - policy issuance and renewal services increased $39.0 million, or 4.7 percent, in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the second quarter of 2025.
•Management fee revenue - administrative services increased $1.3 million, or 7.2 percent, in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the second quarter of 2025.
•Cost of operations - policy issuance and renewal services
◦Commissions increased $44.7 million in the second quarter of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, primarily driven by an increase in agent incentive compensation and the growth in direct and affiliated assumed written premium.
◦Non-commission expense decreased $8.8 million in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the second quarter of 2025. Personnel costs increased $3.0 million, primarily due to increased incentive compensation driven by stronger performance metrics and a smaller decrease in company stock price. This increase was partially offset by bonuses awarded to all employees in 2025 in recognition of our 100th anniversary. Sales and advertising decreased $1.7 million primarily due to a decrease in agent-related and advertising costs. Acquisition and underwriting support costs decreased $3.9 million primarily due to lower underwriting report and postage costs.
Professional fees decreased $5.0 million primarily due to reduced use of third-party services related to technology initiatives. Administrative and other costs decreased $2.1 million primarily due to lower credit card processing fees and charitable contributions related to the transition of charitable giving through the Erie Insurance Foundation.
Income from investments before taxes totaled $22.6 million in the second quarter of 2026 compared to $19.6 million in the second quarter of 2025. Net investment income was $22.6 million in the second quarter of 2026 compared to $20.0 million in the second quarter of 2025.
First Half 2026 Highlights
Operating income before taxes increased $20.4 million, or 5.8 percent, in the first six months of 2026 compared to the first six months of 2025.
•Management fee revenue - policy issuance and renewal services increased $70.4 million, or 4.5 percent, in the first six months of 2026 compared to the first six months of 2025.
•Management fee revenue - administrative services increased $3.2 million, or 8.8 percent, in the first six months of 2026 compared to the first six months of 2025.
•Cost of operations - policy issuance and renewal services
◦Commissions increased $72.7 million in the first six months of 2026 compared to the first six months of 2025, primarily driven by an increase in agent incentive compensation and the growth in direct and affiliated assumed written premium.
◦Non-commission expense decreased $19.5 million for the six months ended June 30, 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. Personnel costs increased $5.1 million, primarily due to increased incentive compensation driven by stronger performance metrics, and higher base compensation. The increase is partially offset by bonuses awarded to all employees in 2025 in recognition of our 100th anniversary. Sales and advertising decreased $3.7 million primarily due to a decrease in agent-related and advertising costs. Acquisition and underwriting support costs decreased $5.7 million primarily due to lower underwriting report costs. Professional fees decreased $12.0 million primarily due to reduced use of third-party services related to technology initiatives. Administrative and other costs decreased $3.7 million primarily due to lower charitable contributions related to the transition of charitable giving through the Erie Insurance Foundation and a decrease in credit card processing fees.
Income from investments before ta
Apr 23, 2026 · 100% conf.
1D
-7.71%
$229.70
Act: -5.99%
5D
-8.33%
$228.16
Act: -12.04%
20D
-4.59%
$237.47
Act: -9.71%
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This page provides Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.
Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on ERIE's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.