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AI Earnings Predictions for Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc. (EPRT)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+1.35%

$25.08

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+3.37%

$25.58

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+4.41%

$25.84

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $24.75 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q3 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q3 2026 BUY +1.35% +3.37% +4.41% 100.0% Pending
Q2 2026 BUY +1.35% +3.37% +4.41% 99.9% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL -2.18% -4.74% -2.92% 100.0% -2.87%
Q4 2025 BUY +1.47% +3.39% +4.38% 100.0% +3.20%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q3

Q3 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Oct 21, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+1.35%

$25.08

Act: +5.38%

5D

+3.37%

$25.58

20D

+4.41%

$25.84

Price: $24.75 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001728951-26-000069

EX-99.1

2 earningsreleaseex991-worki.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

Essential Properties Announces Third Quarter 2026 Results

- Third Quarter Net Income per Share of $0.27 and AFFO per Share of $0.51 -

- Closed Investments of $342.2 million at a 7.7% Weighted Average Cash Cap Rate -

- Increases 2026 AFFO Guidance to $2.02 to $2.05 per Share -

- Issues 2027 AFFO Guidance of $2.10 to $2.18 per Share -

October 21, 2026

PRINCETON, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: EPRT; “Essential Properties” or the “Company”) today announced operating results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026.

Third Quarter 2026 Financial and Operating Highlights:

Operating Results (compared to Third Quarter 2025):

•Investments (100 properties) $ Invested $342.2 million

Weighted Avg Cash Cap Rate 7.7%

Weighted Avg GAAP Cap Rate 9.4%

•Dispositions (11 properties) Net Proceeds $17.9 million

Weighted Avg Cash Cap Rate 6.1%

•Net Income per Share

Decreased by 18% $0.27

•Funds from Operations (“FFO”) per Share (1)

Increased by 4% $0.54

•Core Funds from Operations (“Core FFO”) per Share (1)

Increased by 6% $0.55

•Adjusted Funds from Operations (“AFFO”) per Share (1)

Increased by 6% $0.51

Debt, Equity & Leverage:

•Equity Raised (Gross) - ATM Program (2)

$31.13/share

$28.4 million

•Credit Facility Amendment - Upsized 5 bps Spread Reduction$1.3 billion Capacity

•Pro Forma Net Debt to Annualized Adjusted EBITDAre (1) As of Quarter End3.8x

Year to Date 2026 Financial and Operating Highlights:

Operating Results (compared to YTD Third Quarter 2025):

•Investments (329 properties) $ Invested $1.1 billion

Weighted Avg Cash Cap Rate 7.7%

Weighted Avg GAAP Cap Rate 9.1%

•Dispositions (34 properties) Net Proceeds $82.3 million

Weighted Avg Cash Cap Rate 7.0%

•Net Income per Share

Decreased by 4% $0.90

•FFO per Share (1)

Increased by 7% $1.61

•Core FFO per Share (1)

Increased by 8% $1.63

•AFFO per Share (1)

Increased by 9% $1.51

Debt, Equity & Leverage:

•Public Debt Issuance (June 4, 2026) 10 years; 5.38% coupon$400.0 million

•Equity Raised (Gross) - Follow-On Offering & ATM Program (2) $32.00/share$484.2 million

•Equity Raised (Gross) - Common OP Units $30.39/unit$36.6 million

1.See page 8 for reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to corresponding GAAP metrics.

2.All shares were sold on a forward basis and a total of 15,828,249 shares remain unsettled for estimated net proceeds of $482.8 million.

1

CEO Comments

Commenting on the third quarter 2026 results, the Company's Chief Executive Officer, Pete Mavoides, said, “We delivered a strong third quarter, supported by healthy portfolio performance and investment momentum across our origination platform. Our well-positioned balance sheet and capital position provide us with meaningful flexibility to execute on the pipeline of opportunities. With an eye toward 2027, we expect to remain disciplined in our investment approach, ensuring that our cap rates appropriately reflect the evolving cost of capital environment, while continuing to serve as a trusted capital partner to our operators and drive attractive risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders.”

Portfolio Highlights

The Company’s investment portfolio as of September 30, 2026 is summarized as follows:

September 30, 2026

Number of properties 2,580

Weighted average lease term (WALT) 14.2 years

Weighted average unit-level rent coverage ratio

3.5x

Top 10 tenant concentration (% of cash ABR) 15.2%

Top 20 tenant concentration (% of cash ABR) 25.1%

Weighted average occupancy (11 vacant properties)

99.6%

Total square feet of rentable space 29.3 million

Service-oriented or experience-based (% of cash ABR)

91.7%

Properties subject to master lease (% of cash ABR) (1)

67.4%

1.Includes investments in mortgage loans receivable collateralized by more than one property.

Portfolio Update

Investments

During the three months ended September 30, 2026, the Company's $342.2 million of investment activity had a weighted average closing date of September 6, 2026. Additional details about the Company’s investment activity during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026 are summarized as follows:

Quarter Ended

September 30, 2026

Year to Date

September 30, 2026

Investments:

Investment volume $342.2 million

$1.1 billion

Number of transactions 31

89

Property count 100

329

Weighted average cash / GAAP cap rate 7.7%/9.4%

7.7%/9.1%

Weighted average lease escalation 2.3%

2.0%

% Subject to master lease(1)

65%

54%

% Sale-leaseback transactions(1)

91%

92%

% Existing relationship 60%

63%

% Required financial reporting (tenant/guarantor) 100%

100%

WALT

17.9 years

17.2 years

1.Includes investments in mortgage loans receivable collateralized by more than one property or made in support of sale-leaseback transactions.

2

Dispositions

The Company’s disposition activity during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026 i

2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Jul 22, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+1.35%

$33.10

Act: -1.75%

5D

+3.37%

$33.76

20D

+4.41%

$34.10

Price: $32.66 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001728951-26-000049

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2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Apr 22, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-2.18%

$31.38

Act: -1.78%

5D

-4.74%

$30.56

Act: -2.87%

20D

-2.92%

$31.14

Act: -2.40%

Price: $32.08 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001728951-26-000028

EX-99.1

2 earningsreleaseex991-worki.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

Essential Properties Announces First Quarter 2026 Results

- First Quarter Net Income per Share of $0.28 and AFFO per Share of $0.50 -

- Closed Investments of $388.6 million at a 7.7% Weighted Average Cash Cap Rate -

- Increases 2026 AFFO Guidance to $2.00 to $2.05 per Share -

- Increases 2026 Investment Guidance to $1.1 billion to $1.5 billion -

April 22, 2026

PRINCETON, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: EPRT; “Essential Properties” or the “Company”) today announced operating results for the three months ended March 31, 2026.

First Quarter 2026 Financial and Operating Highlights:

Operating Results (compared to First Quarter 2025):

•Investments (126 properties) $ Invested $388.6 million

Weighted Avg Cash Cap Rate 7.7%

•Dispositions (6 properties) Net Proceeds $10.2 million

Weighted Avg Cash Cap Rate 6.9%

•Net Income per Share

Decreased by 3% $0.28

•Funds from Operations (“FFO”) per Share (1)

Increased by 13% $0.54

•Core Funds from Operations (“Core FFO”) per Share (1)

Increased by 13% $0.54

•Adjusted Funds from Operations (“AFFO”) per Share (1)

Increased by 11% $0.50

Debt, Equity & Leverage:

•Equity Raised (Gross) - Follow-On Offering (February 19, 2026) (2) $32.20/share$402.5 million

•Equity Raised (Gross) - ATM Program (2)

$31.83/share

$16.7 million

•Pro Forma Net Debt to Annualized Adjusted EBITDAre (1) As of Quarter End3.5x

1.See page 8 for reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to corresponding GAAP metrics.

2.All shares were sold on a forward basis and a total of 17,695,008 shares remain unsettled as of March 31, 2026 for estimated net proceeds of $540.6 million, assuming full physical settlement.

Activity Subsequent to First Quarter 2026:

•Investments $ Invested $11.4 million

•Dispositions $ Gross Proceeds $20.8 million

CEO Comments

Commenting on the first quarter 2026 results, the Company's Chief Executive Officer, Pete Mavoides, said, “Our team continued to execute in the first quarter, starting off the year with strong investment activity which complemented our capital raising efforts. Though the macroeconomic backdrop remains dynamic, the building momentum in our business allowed us to increase guidance for 2026, suggesting another year of compelling earnings growth.”

1

Portfolio Highlights

The Company’s investment portfolio as of March 31, 2026 is summarized as follows:

March 31, 2026

Number of properties 2,417

Weighted average lease term (WALT) 14.6 years

Weighted average rent coverage ratio 3.5x

Top 10 tenant concentration (% of cash ABR) 15.8%

Top 20 tenant concentration (% of cash ABR) 26.0%

Weighted average occupancy (7 vacant properties) 99.7%

Total square feet of rentable space 27.3 million

Service-oriented or experience-based (% of cash ABR)

91.6%

Properties subject to master lease (% of cash ABR) 65.3%

Portfolio Update

Investments

During the three months ended March 31, 2026, the Company's $388.6 million of investment activity had a weighted average closing date of February 10, 2026. Additional details about the Company’s investment activity during the three months ended March 31, 2026 are summarized as follows:

Quarter Ended

March 31, 2026

Investments:

Investment volume $388.6 million

Number of transactions 22

Property count 126

Weighted average cash / GAAP cap rate 7.7%/8.8%

Weighted average lease escalation 2.1%

% Subject to master lease 49%

% Sale-leaseback transactions 100%

% Existing relationship 57%

% Required financial reporting (tenant/guarantor) 100%

WALT

17.7 years

Dispositions

The Company’s disposition activity during the three months ended March 31, 2026 is summarized as follows:

Quarter Ended March 31, 2026

Dispositions:

Net proceeds $10.2 million

Number of properties sold 6

Net gain / (loss) $5.3 million

Weighted average cash cap rate (excluding vacant properties and sales subject to a tenant purchase option) 6.9%

2

Loan Repayments

Loan repayments received by the Company during the three months ended March 31, 2026 are summarized as follows:

Quarter Ended March 31, 2026

Loan Repayments:

Proceeds—Principal

$6.2 million

Number of properties3

Weighted average interest rate 9.2%

Leverage and Liquidity

The Company's leverage and liquidity as of March 31, 2026 are summarized in the following table.

March 31, 2026

Pro Forma (1) March 31, 2026

Leverage:

Net debt to Annualized Adjusted EBITDAre

4.4x

3.5x

Liquidity:

Cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash $16.2 million

$456.8 million

Unused revolving credit facility capacity $900.0 million

$1.0 billion

Forward equity sales - unsettled

$540.6 million

—

Total available liquidity $1.5 billion

$1.5 billion

ATM Program:

October 2024 ATM Program initial availability$750.0 million

Aggregate gross sales under the October 2024 ATM Program $419.3 million

Availability remaining under the October 2024 ATM Program $330.7 milli

About Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc. (EPRT) Earnings

This page provides Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc. (EPRT) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on EPRT's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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