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AI Earnings Predictions for Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-1.21%

$126.13

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-3.79%

$122.83

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-4.92%

$121.39

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $127.67 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q2 2026 SELL -1.21% -3.79% -4.92% 100.0% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL -1.62% -3.84% -6.39% 100.0% -3.30%
Q4 2025 SELL -1.55% -3.68% -5.77% 100.0% Pending
Q3 2025 BUY +7.49% +8.58% +16.92% 99.8% +10.02%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Aug 27, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-1.21%

$126.13

Act: -0.74%

5D

-3.79%

$122.83

20D

-4.92%

$121.39

Price: $127.67 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0000935703-26-000108

EX-99.1

2 ex991q2-26earningspressrel.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

Dollar Tree, Inc. Reports Strong Second Quarter Results

•Total sales growth of 7.0%

•Comparable store net sales increased 3.7% on top of 6.5% last year

•Comparable store net sales growth included a 3.3% increase in average ticket and a 0.4% increase in traffic

•Diluted EPS of $2.70, including a $1.31 benefit related to the net impact of tariff refunds1

•Operating income margin expanded 900 basis points including a 650 basis point benefit related to the net impact of tariff refunds

•Adjusted operating income margin expanded 890 basis points including a 650 basis point benefit related to the net impact of tariff refunds

•Returned $605 million to shareholders through share repurchases in Q2

•Increasing fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to a range of $7.70 to $8.05 including an approximate $0.60 benefit related to the net impact of tariff refunds

•Q3 fiscal 2026 outlook of 3% to 4% comparable net sales growth and adjusted EPS of $0.80 to $0.95 including a $0.50 impact related to tariff refund reinvestments

CHESAPEAKE, Va. – August 27, 2026 – Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) today reported financial results for its second quarter ended August 1, 2026.

"What continues to set Dollar Tree apart is our ability to deliver value, convenience, and the excitement of discovery all in one shopping trip,” said Mike Creedon, Chief Executive Officer. “Positive traffic trends helped drive strong comparable sales growth and EPS exceeded the high end of our outlook. Our strategies are unlocking a better assortment in better-run stores, while allowing us to engage customers in more relevant and compelling ways. While we are proud of the progress we have made, we are even more focused on the opportunities ahead as we continue investing in the customer experience, strengthening the business, and driving profitable long-term growth."

Additional Business Highlights

•Opened 75 new Dollar Tree stores during the quarter

•Converted or added about 710 stores to the Dollar Tree multi-price format, ending the quarter with approximately 6,600 multi-price stores

•Generated $922 million of net cash provided by operating activities from continuing operations and $675 million of free cash flow

•Q3 quarter-to-date share repurchases totaled $5.3 million

1 Net impact of tariff refunds includes the impact of IEEPA tariff refunds totaling $383 million, including $369 million in cost of sales and $14 million of interest in other income, net, reinvestment expenses totaling $22 million in cost of sales and $15 million in selling, general and administrative expenses, and $13 million of certain duties on aluminum pans and paper plates recorded in cost of sales, all net of tax

1

•Ended the quarter with 9,436 stores across the Dollar Tree U.S. and Dollar Tree Canada banners

Second Quarter 2026 Key Operating Results (unaudited)

(from continuing operations unless otherwise noted)

(Compared to same period fiscal 2025)

Q2

Fiscal 2026

Change

Net Sales

$4.9B

7.0%

Same-Store Net Sales Growth

3.7%

Operating Income

$690M

198.7%

Diluted EPS

$2.70

260.0%

Adjusted Operating Income1

$690M

192.4%

Adjusted Diluted EPS1

$2.70

250.6%

1 For the second quarter of 2025, adjustments are for strategic review costs. See "Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures" below for detailed schedules of this adjustment for the prior year comparable period.

Second Quarter Results

Results for the second quarter ended August 1, 2026 are presented on a continuing operations basis. Continuing operations reflect the results of the Dollar Tree U.S. and Dollar Tree Canada banners.

Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are to the prior-year second quarter ended August 2, 2025 for the results of continuing operations.

Net sales increased 7.0% to $4.9 billion. Comparable store net sales increased 3.7%, driven by a 3.3% increase in average ticket and a 0.4% increase in traffic.

Gross profit margin increased 850 basis points to 42.9% and included 680 basis points related to the net impact of tariff refunds. The remaining improvement in gross margin rate was primarily driven by lower tariff rates, favorable shrink, and occupancy leverage, partially offset by sales mix.

Selling, general and administrative expenses decreased 40 basis points to 29.2% of total revenue. SG&A included 30 basis points of tariff refund related reinvestment. The remaining year-over-year decrease primarily reflected lower payroll expenses partially offset by higher marketing and depreciation.

Adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses inclusive of transition services agreement income, net decreased 50 basis points as a percent of total revenue and included 30 basis points of tariff refund related reinvestment.

Transition services agreement income, net was $18 million for services provided between Dollar Tree and Family Dollar following the sale.

Operating income was $690 million and opera

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

May 28, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-1.62%

$111.17

Act: +2.87%

5D

-3.84%

$108.66

Act: -3.30%

20D

-6.39%

$105.78

Act: +9.79%

Price: $113.00 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0000935703-26-000064

EX-99.1

2 ex991q1-26earningspressrel.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

Dollar Tree, Inc. Reports

First Quarter Results

•Net sales grew 7.2% and comparable store net sales increased 3.5%

•Diluted EPS from continuing operations of $1.76

•Adjusted diluted EPS increased 38% to $1.74

•Operating income margin expanded 120 basis points versus Q1 of FY25

•Adjusted operating income margin expanded 110 basis points versus Q1 of FY25

•Returned $595 million to shareholders through share repurchases in Q1

•Q2 quarter-to-date share repurchases totaled $98 million

•Increasing fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS from continuing operations outlook to $6.70 to $7.10

•Q2 fiscal 2026 outlook of 2.5% to 3.5% comparable store net sales growth and adjusted EPS from continuing operations of $1.00 to $1.15

CHESAPEAKE, Va. – May 28, 2026 – Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) today reported financial results for its first quarter ended May 2, 2026.

“Our first quarter results reflect continued progress across the business and demonstrate the strength of Dollar Tree’s position as the preferred destination for value, convenience, and discovery,” said Mike Creedon, Chief Executive Officer. “We continued advancing our strategic plan – a more relevant assortment, agile cost management, a stronger customer connection, and new store growth coupled with improved store conditions – all driving operating margin expansion and delivering a strong bottom-line performance. As we celebrate our 40th anniversary in 2026, we are encouraged by the progress we are seeing across the business and remain focused on making thoughtful investments in our stores, assortment and customer experience – building Dollar Tree to last for decades to come.”

Additional Business Highlights

•Opened 113 new Dollar Tree stores during the quarter

•Converted or added about 630 stores to the Dollar Tree multi-price format, ending the quarter with approximately 5,900 multi-price stores

•Generated $644 million of net cash provided by operating activities from continuing operations and $392 million of free cash flow

•Ended the quarter with 9,382 stores across the Dollar Tree U.S. and Dollar Tree Canada banners

1

First Quarter 2026 Key Operating Results (unaudited)

(from continuing operations unless otherwise noted)

(Compared to same period fiscal 2025)

Q1

Fiscal 2026

Change

Net Sales

$5.0B

7.2%

Same-Store Net Sales Growth

3.5%

Operating Income

$473M

23.2%

Diluted EPS

$1.76

19.7%

Adjusted Operating Income1

$473M

22.0%

Adjusted Diluted EPS1

$1.74

38.1%

1Adjustment for the first quarter of 2026 is a non-operating insurance gain. For the first quarter of 2025, adjustments are for strategic review costs and a non-operating insurance gain. See "Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures" below for detailed schedules of this adjustment and the adjustments for the prior year comparable period.

First Quarter Results

Results for the first quarter ended May 2, 2026 are reported on a continuing operations basis. Continuing operations reflect the results of Dollar Tree brands in the United States and Canada.

Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are to the prior year’s first quarter ended May 3, 2025 for the results of continuing operations.

Net sales increased 7.2% to $5.0 billion. Comparable store net sales increased 3.5%, driven by a 4.5% increase in average ticket, partially offset by a 1.0% decline in traffic.

Gross profit margin increased 120 basis points. The improvement in gross margin was primarily driven by higher mark-on, lower freight costs, and lower shrink. These benefits were partially offset by higher tariff costs and higher markdowns.

Selling, general and administrative expenses increased 50 basis points to 27.8% of total revenue. The increase was primarily due to higher marketing costs, general liability costs, and higher depreciation partially offset by lower payroll costs.

Adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses inclusive of transition services agreement income, net increased 10 basis points as a percent of total revenue.

Transition services agreement income, net was $21.1 million for services provided between Dollar Tree and Family Dollar following the sale.

Operating income increased 23% to $473.3 million and operating margin expanded 120 basis points. Adjusted operating income increased 22% to $473.3 million.

The Company’s effective tax rate was 24.9%.

2

Income from continuing operations was $347.3 million and diluted earnings per share from continuing operations was $1.76. On an adjusted basis, income from continuing operations was $343.4 million and adjusted diluted earnings per share was $1.74.

The Company repurchased 5.5 million shares of its common stock during the first quarter of fiscal 2026 for $595 million.

As of May 2, 2026, the Company had $1.3 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorization, $1 billion of cash and cash equivalents, no commercial paper outstanding, and no borrowings

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Mar 16, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-1.55%

$105.78

Act: -2.20%

5D

-3.68%

$103.50

20D

-5.77%

$101.25

Price: $107.45 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0000935703-26-000024

dltr-202603160000935703false00009357032026-03-162026-03-16

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 OR 15(d) of The Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): March 16, 2026

DOLLAR TREE, INC.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Virginia0-2546426-2018846 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)(Commission File Number)(IRS Employer Identification No.)

500 Volvo Parkway Chesapeake, Virginia23320 (Address of principal executive offices)(Zip Code)

(757) 321-5000 (Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

☐Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each classTrading symbol(s)Name of each exchange on which registered Common Stock, par value $0.01 per shareDLTRNASDAQ Global Select Market

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).

Emerging growth company ☐

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02. Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

Today, March 16, 2026, Dollar Tree, Inc. issued a press release reporting its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter financial results and announcing that it will hold a publicly available telephone conference call to discuss these results. A copy of the press release is attached to this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by this reference.

The information contained in items 2.02 and 7.01, including that incorporated by reference, is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Such information shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.

Item 7.01. Regulation FD Disclosure.

The information (including disclaimer) presented under Item 2.02 is incorporated by reference into this Item 7.01.

Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d)    Exhibits.

Exhibit No. Description of Exhibit 99.1Press release, dated March 16, 2026, issued by Dollar Tree, Inc.

104Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document).

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

DOLLAR TREE, INC.

Date: March 16, 2026By:  /s/ Stewart Glendinning Stewart Glendinning Chief Financial Officer

About Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) Earnings

This page provides Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on DLTR's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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