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AI Earnings Predictions for Casella Waste Systems Inc. (CWST)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+2.11%

$80.93

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+4.53%

$82.84

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+6.79%

$84.63

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $79.25 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q1 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q1 2026 BUY +2.11% +4.53% +6.79% 100.0% +7.82%
Q4 2025 SELL -3.48% -3.36% -1.30% 100.0% -9.03%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Apr 30, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+2.11%

$80.93

Act: +9.46%

5D

+4.53%

$82.84

Act: +7.82%

20D

+6.79%

$84.63

Act: +3.90%

Price: $79.25 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0000911177-26-000018

EX-99.1

2 cwst-ex991033126.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS, INC. ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS; UPDATES FISCAL YEAR 2026 GUIDANCE

Strategic Acquisitions and Steady First Quarter Execution Set the Table for a Strong Year of Performance

RUTLAND, VERMONT (April 30, 2026) — Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CWST), a regional solid waste, recycling and resource management services company, today reported its financial results for the three month period ended March 31, 2026.

Key Highlights:

•Revenues were $457.3 million for the quarter, up $40.2 million, or up 9.6%, from the same period in 2025.

•Solid waste pricing was up 5.1% from the same period in 2025, driven by 5.3% collection price growth and 4.7% disposal price growth.

•Net loss was $(5.5) million for the quarter, as compared to $(4.8) million for the same period in 2025. Adjusted Net Income, a non-GAAP measure, was $12.8 million for the quarter, up $0.6 million, or up 5.2%, from the same period in 2025.

•Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure, was $97.1 million for the quarter, up $10.7 million, or up 12.3%, from the same period in 2025.

•Net cash provided by operating activities was $62.3 million for the quarter, up $12.1 million, or up 24.2%, from the same period in 2025.

•Adjusted Free Cash Flow, a non-GAAP measure, was $30.7 million for the quarter, up $1.6 million, from the same period in 2025.

•Acquired four businesses thus far in 2026 with approximately $150 million in aggregate annualized revenues, including $100 million associated with the previously announced acquisition of Star Waste Systems, LLC (“Star Waste”), which closed on April 1, 2026.

•Raised 2026 guidance for revenues, Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow.

“We are pleased with our strong start to the year as our execution delivered solid financial and operating performance in the quarter,” said Ned Coletta, President and CEO of Casella Waste Systems, Inc. “In addition, we have closed four acquisitions to date in 2026 as we continue to grow the business through our disciplined acquisition strategy. This early success provides momentum for the remainder of the year.”

“Our results were driven in part by our strong pricing programs, with positive landfill pricing of 4.3% in the quarter, including municipal solid waste pricing up 5.0% year-over-year, and total landfill tons also up in the quarter,” Coletta said. “Our floating fuel recovery fees were very effective during the quarter, fully offsetting the rapid rise in fuel costs across our legacy operations. Our operating programs remain focused as we continue to introduce more automation into our collection fleet, optimize routing, and further invest in safety and technology initiatives. From an acquisition integration perspective, our teams continue to make great progress as well and our plans are on track for the year. Overall, our efforts resulted in Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 50 basis points year-over-year in the quarter.”

“Our acquired revenues in 2026 have already outpaced last year and the pipeline remains robust,” Coletta said. “The acquisition of Star Waste improves our existing density and directly overlays our operating footprint in New England. We are excited about the opportunities ahead and once again would like to welcome aboard our new employees and customers related to each of our 2026 acquisitions.”

Q1 2026 Results

Revenues were $457.3 million for the quarter, up $40.2 million, or up 9.6%, from the same period in 2025, with revenue growth mainly driven by: the positive impact from acquisitions, including the rollover contribution from deals closed in prior periods; positive collection and disposal price; and strong National Accounts growth in our Resource Solutions operating segment.

1

Operating income was $4.9 million for the quarter, up $1.7 million, or up 54.5%, from the same period in 2025, reflecting improved operating performance; partially offset by higher depreciation and amortization expense and acquisition expense mainly related to acquisition growth.

Net loss was $(5.5) million for the quarter, as compared to $(4.8) million for the same period in 2025, largely driven by the same factors impacting operating income in addition to higher interest expense, net. Adjusted Net Income was $12.8 million for the quarter, up $0.6 million, or up 5.2%, from the same period in 2025.

Adjusted EBITDA was $97.1 million for the quarter, up $10.7 million, or up 12.3%, from the same period in 2025, driven by both acquisition contribution and organic growth.

Please refer to "Non-GAAP Performance Measures" included in "Unaudited Reconciliation of Certain Non-GAAP Measures" below for additional information and reconciliations of Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted EBITDA and other non-GAAP performance measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures.

Net cash provided by operating activities was $62.3 million for the quarter, up $12.1 m

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Feb 19, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-3.48%

$97.76

Act: -5.75%

5D

-3.36%

$97.88

Act: -9.03%

20D

-1.30%

$99.97

Price: $101.28 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0000911177-26-000006

cwst-202602190000911177false00009111772026-02-192026-02-19

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549


FORM 8-K


CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): February 19, 2026


Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (Exact Name of Registrant as Specified in Charter)


Delaware 000-23211 03-0338873 (State or Other Jurisdiction of Incorporation) (Commission File Number) (IRS Employer Identification No.)

25 Greens Hill Lane, Rutland,Vermont05701 (Address of principal executive offices)(Zip Code)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (802) 775-0325 Not applicable (Former Name or Former Address, if Changed Since Last Report)


Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below): ☐     Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐     Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐     Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐     Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)) Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: Title of each classTrading Symbol(s)Name of each exchange on which registered Class A common stock, $0.01 par value per shareCWSTThe Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (Nasdaq Global Select Market)

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02    Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 19, 2026, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Item 2.02 of this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. Item 9.01     Financial Statements and Exhibits. (d) Exhibits.

EXHIBIT INDEX

Exhibit No.Exhibit Description

99.1 Press Release of Casella Waste Systems, Inc. dated February 19, 2026.

101.SCHInline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema Document.**

101.LABInline XBRL Taxonomy Label Linkbase Document.**

101.PREInline XBRL Taxonomy Presentation Linkbase Document.**

104Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as inline XBRL with applicable taxonomy extension information contained in Exhibits 101).

**Submitted Electronically Herewith.

SIGNATURE

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS, INC.

Date: February 19, 2026 By: /s/ Bradford J. Helgeson Bradford J. Helgeson Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

2

2025
Q3

Q3 2025 Earnings

8-K

Oct 30, 2025

0000911177-25-000123

cwst-202510300000911177false00009111772025-10-302025-10-30

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549


FORM 8-K


CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): October 30, 2025


Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (Exact Name of Registrant as Specified in Charter)


Delaware 000-23211 03-0338873 (State or Other Jurisdiction of Incorporation) (Commission File Number) (IRS Employer Identification No.)

25 Greens Hill Lane, Rutland,Vermont05701 (Address of principal executive offices)(Zip Code)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (802) 775-0325 Not applicable (Former Name or Former Address, if Changed Since Last Report)


Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below): ☐     Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐     Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐     Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐     Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)) Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: Title of each classTrading Symbol(s)Name of each exchange on which registered Class A common stock, $0.01 par value per shareCWSTThe Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (Nasdaq Global Select Market)

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02    Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 30, 2025, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Item 2.02 of this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. Item 9.01     Financial Statements and Exhibits. (d) Exhibits.

EXHIBIT INDEX

Exhibit No.Exhibit Description

99.1 Press Release of Casella Waste Systems, Inc. dated October 30, 2025.

101.SCHInline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema Document.**

101.LABInline XBRL Taxonomy Label Linkbase Document.**

101.PREInline XBRL Taxonomy Presentation Linkbase Document.**

104Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as inline XBRL with applicable taxonomy extension information contained in Exhibits 101).

**Submitted Electronically Herewith.

SIGNATURE

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS, INC.

Date: October 30, 2025 By: /s/ Bradford J. Helgeson Bradford J. Helgeson Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

2

About Casella Waste Systems Inc. (CWST) Earnings

This page provides Casella Waste Systems Inc. (CWST) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on CWST's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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