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AI Earnings Predictions for Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+5.60%

$30.74

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+7.89%

$31.41

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+10.13%

$32.06

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $29.11 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q2 2026 BUY +5.60% +7.89% +10.13% 100.0% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL -3.70% -7.65% -11.13% 100.0% -11.44%
Q4 2025 SELL -3.07% -5.44% -7.53% 92.9% -15.69%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Aug 6, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+5.60%

$30.74

Act: +1.24%

5D

+7.89%

$31.41

20D

+10.13%

$32.06

Price: $29.11 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001628280-26-053849

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2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

May 7, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-3.70%

$37.88

Act: -3.97%

5D

-7.65%

$36.32

Act: -11.44%

20D

-11.13%

$34.95

Act: -15.13%

Price: $39.33 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001628280-26-031694

EX-99.1

2 coll-2026x03x31xex99x1.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

Collegium Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Highlights Recent Company Progress

– Generated Quarterly Net Revenues of $193.5 Million, Up 9% Year-over-Year –

– Generated JORNAY PM® Quarterly Net Revenue of $38.9 Million, Up 36% Year-over-Year –

– On Track to Close Acquisition of AZSTARYS® in Second Quarter of 2026, Adding Highly Complementary and Differentiated Medicine with Significant Growth Potential to Collegium’s Existing ADHD Portfolio –

– Generated Quarterly Pain Portfolio Net Revenues of $154.6 Million, Up 4% Year-over-Year –

– Ended Q1’26 with Cash, Cash Equivalents and Marketable Securities of $421.8 Million –

– Reaffirmed Full-Year 2026 Guidance for the Current Business –

– Conference Call Scheduled for Today at 8:00 a.m. ET –

STOUGHTON, Mass., May 7, 2026 -- Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (Nasdaq: COLL) today reported its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, and provided a business update.

“In the first quarter, we made meaningful progress on our 2026 strategic priorities, including delivering strong performance for JORNAY PM and continued durability from our pain portfolio” said Vikram Karnani, President and Chief Executive Officer. “We generated additional growth for JORNAY PM, with net revenue up 36% and prescriptions rising 14% driven by gains in both new prescribers and market share. We are encouraged by the impact of our expanded ADHD salesforce and marketing initiatives and look forward to integrating AZSTARYS following the expected close of the transaction. The pending acquisition of AZSTARYS represents an important next step in strengthening our ADHD portfolio, extending revenues into the late 2030s, and expanding our growth profile. At the same time, our pain portfolio delivered another solid quarter of durable revenues, driven by differentiated products and deliberate actions taken to enhance profitability. We remain focused on executing our strategy to build a leading diversified biopharmaceutical company while improving the lives of people living with serious medical conditions.”

“We delivered strong first quarter results, marked by significant net revenue growth for JORNAY PM, robust contributions from our pain portfolio, and impressive operating cash flows,” said Colleen Tupper, Chief Financial Officer. “Our strong financial position enabled us to continue to execute on our capital deployment strategy, fueling the proposed acquisition of AZSTARYS. We expect the acquisition to be immediately accretive upon close and to extend our revenues into the late 2030s. Following an encouraging start to the year, we are well positioned to achieve our strategic priorities and financial commitments as we work to drive long-term shareholder value.”

ADHD Business Highlights

•Generated JORNAY PM net revenue of $38.9 million, up 36% year-over-year in the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the 2026 Quarter).

•JORNAY PM prescriptions reached an all-time high in the 2026 Quarter, with over 206,000 prescriptions written, up 14% year-over-year.

•JORNAY PM prescribers reached an all-time high in the 2026 Quarter with approximately 30,000 healthcare providers writing JORNAY PM prescriptions, up 17% year-over-year.

•In March, announced the acquisition of AZSTARYS from Corium Therapeutics for $650 million in cash with the potential for additional milestone payments up to $135 million contingent on future commercial and manufacturing milestones. The acquisition will add a highly complementary and differentiated medicine with significant growth potential to Collegium’s existing ADHD portfolio. The acquisition is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026 and be immediately accretive to adjusted EBITDA.

•In March, launched the ‘Embrace Your Sparkle’ campaign with Paris Hilton, aimed at encouraging broader understanding and an open dialogue about ADHD.

•In February, announced a multi-year sponsorship for a sensory room with Boston Legacy FC, a member of the National Women's Soccer League (NWSL), to help make games accessible and inclusive for more fans while raising awareness and encouraging understanding of neurodevelopmental disorders, such as ADHD.

•In January, presented four posters at the American Professional Society of ADHD and Related Disorders (APSARD) Annual Conference highlighting real-world JORNAY PM data.

Pain Portfolio Highlights

•Generated pain portfolio net revenues of $154.6 million in the 2026 Quarter, up 4% year-over-year.

•Generated Belbuca® net revenue of $52.6 million in the 2026 Quarter, up 2% year-over-year.

•Generated Xtampza® ER net revenue of $50.8 million in the 2026 Quarter, up 7% year-over-year.

•Generated Nucynta® Franchise net revenue of $47.0 million in the 2026 Quarter, flat year-over-year. This includes $2.7 million from Hikma Pharmaceuticals USA Inc. (Hikma) for the sale of the authorized generic (AG) versions of Nucynta and Nucynta ER, both launched in

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Feb 26, 2026 · 93% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-3.07%

$42.86

Act: -5.77%

5D

-5.44%

$41.81

Act: -15.69%

20D

-7.53%

$40.89

Price: $44.22 Prob +5D: 4% AUC: 1.000
0001628280-26-011990

coll-20260226FALSE000126756500012675652026-02-262026-02-26

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): February 26, 2026

COLLEGIUM PHARMACEUTICAL, INC.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Virginia001-3737203-0416362 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)(Commission File Number)(IRS Employer Identification No.)

100 Technology Center Drive Suite 300 Stoughton, MA 02072

(Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (781) 713-3699 (Former name or former address, if changed since last report.) Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

☐Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each classTrading Symbol(s)Name of each exchange on which registered Common stock, par value $0.001 per shareCOLLThe NASDAQ Global Select Market

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarterly period and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is being furnished, not filed, under Item 2.02 of this Current Report on Form 8-K.

Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure. On February 26, 2026, Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. released an earnings presentation. The presentation is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and is being furnished, not filed, under Item 7.01 of this Current Report on Form 8-K.

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits. (d)Exhibits

EXHIBIT TABLE

Exhibit No.Description 99.1 Press Release, dated February 26, 2026

99.2 Earnings Presentation, dated February 26, 2026

104Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.

By:/s/ Colleen Tupper Colleen Tupper Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Dated: February 26, 2026

About Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) Earnings

This page provides Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on COLL's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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