Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns
1-Day Prediction
+4.29%
$85.04
80% positive prob.
5-Day Prediction
+5.22%
$85.80
80% positive prob.
20-Day Prediction
+2.20%
$83.33
76% positive prob.
| Quarter | Signal | 1D Return | 5D Return | 20D Return | Confidence | Actual 5D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | BUY | +4.29% | +5.22% | +2.20% | 60.0% | Pending |
| Q2 2026 | BUY | +5.36% | +6.53% | +2.75% | 99.9% | Pending |
| Q1 2026 | BUY | +4.68% | +5.50% | +3.67% | 100.0% | +13.73% |
| Q4 2025 | SELL | -5.21% | -5.11% | -1.53% | 100.0% | -5.61% |
SEC 8-K filings with transcript text
Oct 28, 2026 · 60% conf.
1D
+4.29%
$85.04
5D
+5.22%
$85.80
20D
+2.20%
$83.33
2 ex991pressrelease10-28x26.htm
Document
Contact: Sam Ullrich
(502) 638-3906
Sam.Ullrich@kyderby.com
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (October 28, 2026) - Churchill Downs Incorporated (Nasdaq: CHDN) (the "Company," "CDI," "we") today reported business results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026.
Company Highlights
▪Third quarter 2026 financial results, as compared to the prior year quarter:
•Record net revenue of $696 million, up $13 million or 2%
•Record net income attributable to CDI of $80 million, up $42 million
–Excluding 3Q'25 one-time, non-cash impairment and insurance recovery, net income attributable to CDI was up $10 million or 26%
•Record Adjusted EBITDA of $264 million, up $2 million or 1%
–Excluding 3Q'25 insurance recovery, Adjusted EBITDA was up $6 million or 2%
▪We announced the Thoroughbred Championship Series with the New York Racing Association ("NYRA") beginning with the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby in 2027.
▪We received approval to relocate and expand our Rosie's Collinsville historical racing machines ("HRM") venue to 150 HRMs within Henry County, Virginia.
▪We completed the acquisition of 49% of United Tote Company ("United Tote") from NYRA and extended NYRA's tote services agreement with United Tote through 2035.
▪We entered into a new $500 million Term Loan B due 2033 (the "2033 TLB") and amended and extended our Revolver and Term Loan A facility at favorable rates.
▪The Board of Directors declared a $0.469 per share dividend (+7%) to shareholders of record as of December 4, 2026 and payable on January 5, 2027.
▪The Board of Directors approved a new $750 million share repurchase program. The new authorization includes and is not in addition to the $306 million previously remaining under the prior repurchase program authorization as of the close of trading on October 27, 2026.
▪We ended the third quarter of 2026 with net bank leverage of 3.8x and returned $48 million of capital to our shareholders through share repurchases during the quarter.
Third Quarter
(in millions, except per share data)20262025
Net revenue$696 $683
Net income attributable to CDI$80 $38
Diluted EPS attributable to CDI$1.15 $0.54
Adjusted EBITDA(a) $264 $262
(a) This is a non-GAAP measure. See explanation of non-GAAP measures below.
1
The summaries below present revenue from external customers and intercompany revenue from each of our reportable segments. All comparisons are against the applicable prior year period unless otherwise noted.
Live and Historical Racing
Third Quarter
(in millions)20262025
Revenue$315 $305
Adjusted EBITDA111 116
Third quarter 2026 revenue increased $10 million due to an $11 million increase from our Kentucky HRM venues and a $1 million increase from Churchill Downs Racetrack, partially offset by a $1 million decrease from our Virginia HRM venues and a $1 million decrease from our New Hampshire venues. The Kentucky HRM increase was due to a $7 million increase from our Southwestern Kentucky venues, a $2 million increase from our Northern Kentucky venues, a $1 million increase from our Western Kentucky venues, and a $1 million increase from our Louisville venues. The Virginia HRM decrease was due to a $6 million net decrease from our Central Virginia venues primarily from increased competition, partially offset by a $4 million net increase from our Northern Virginia venues and a $1 million increase at our Western Virginia venue. The New Hampshire decrease was due to the closure of our temporary Casino Salem venue during the construction of our new Rockingham Grand Casino venue.
Third quarter 2026 Adjusted EBITDA decreased $5 million due to a $6 million decrease from our Virginia HRM venues, a $4 million decrease due to a one-time business interruption insurance recovery received in the prior year quarter for our Northern Virginia venue, and a $1 million decrease at our New Hampshire venues, partially offset by a $6 million increase from our Kentucky HRM venues. The Virginia HRM decrease was primarily due to a $10 million decrease from our Central Virginia venues that was partially offset by a $3 million increase from our Northern Virginia venue and a $1 million net increase from our Western Virginia and Southern Virginia venues. The decrease from our Central Virginia venues was primarily due to increased competition and a $5 million new tax expense related to live race days under the new racing and HRM tax structure that became effective July 1, 2026. Our Virginia HRM venues continue to benefit from a statewide HRM handle tax reduction that became effective July 1, 2025 as part of this new tax structure. The New Hampshire decrease was due to the closure of our temporary Casino Salem venue during the construction of our Rockingham Grand Casino venue. The Kentucky HRM increase was due to a $3 million increase from our
Jul 29, 2026 · 100% conf.
1D
+5.36%
$93.27
Act: -6.60%
5D
+6.53%
$94.31
20D
+2.75%
$90.96
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Apr 22, 2026 · 100% conf.
1D
+4.68%
$93.11
Act: +10.09%
5D
+5.50%
$93.83
Act: +13.73%
20D
+3.67%
$92.21
Act: -3.72%
SEC.gov | Request Rate Threshold Exceeded
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
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For best practices on efficiently downloading information from SEC.gov, including the latest EDGAR filings, visit sec.gov/developer. You can also sign up for email updates on the SEC open data program, including best practices that make it more efficient to download data, and SEC.gov enhancements that may impact scripted downloading processes. For more information, contact opendata@sec.gov.
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This page provides Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.
Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on CHDN's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.