1. Home
  2. CBSH
  3. Earnings

AI Earnings Predictions for Commerce Bancshares Inc. (CBSH)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-0.35%

$58.93

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-1.94%

$57.99

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-1.39%

$58.32

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $59.14 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q2 2026 SELL -0.35% -1.94% -1.39% 100.0% -0.08%
Q4 2025 SELL +1.53% -1.01% -2.04% 100.0% -2.87%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K/A SELL

Jul 17, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-0.35%

$58.93

Act: -0.61%

5D

-1.94%

$57.99

Act: -0.08%

20D

-1.39%

$58.32

Price: $59.14 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0000022356-26-000179

EX-99.1

2 cbsh06302026ex991.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

Exhibit 99.1

CBSH

1000 Walnut Street / Suite 700 / Kansas City, Missouri 64106 / 816.234.2000

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:

Thursday, July 16, 2026

COMMERCE BANCSHARES, INC. REPORTS

SECOND QUARTER EARNINGS PER SHARE OF $1.10

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. announced earnings of $1.10 per share for the three months ended June 30, 2026, compared to $1.09 per share in the same quarter last year and $.96 per share in the first quarter of 2026. Net income for the second quarter of 2026 amounted to $159.8 million, compared to $152.5 million in the second quarter of 2025 and $141.6 million in the prior quarter.

For the six months ended June 30, 2026, earnings per share totaled $2.06 compared to $2.02 for the first six months of 2025. Net income amounted to $301.4 million for the six months ended June 30, 2026, compared to $284.1 million in the comparable period last year. For the year to date, the return on average assets was 1.73%, and the return on average equity was 13.96%.

In making this announcement, John Kemper, Chief Executive Officer, said, “Commerce delivered a strong quarter, with expanding net interest margin, solid loan growth, lower funding costs and excellent credit quality. These results drove a return on average assets of 1.84% and reflect the strength of our business model, our diversified revenue streams and our team’s continued focus on long-standing customer relationships.”

Mr. Kemper continued, “Revenue growth was broad-based during the quarter. Net interest income increased as margin expanded to 3.77%, and fee revenue grew $8.0 million this quarter, supported by continued strength in trust, bank card and deposit-related businesses. We believe this balanced revenue mix remains a key differentiator for Commerce and supports consistent performance across economic cycles.”

“We remained focused on disciplined capital management. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 2.1 million shares of common stock for $110 million while maintaining a strong capital position. This gives us flexibility to invest in growth, support our customers and continue returning capital to shareholders.”

“We also completed the repositioning of a portion of our available for sale securities portfolio, including the sale of our Treasury inflation-protected securities portfolio. This repositioning increases the portfolio’s overall yield, improves the consistency of future net interest income, and supports a more durable net interest margin over time. We believe these portfolio changes strengthen Commerce’s long-term earnings profile and position us to deliver sustained shareholder value.”

Second Quarter 2026 Financial Highlights:

•Net interest income was $315.1 million, a $15.2 million increase over the prior quarter. The net yield on interest earning assets increased 18 basis points to 3.77%.

1

Exhibit 99.1

•Non-interest income totaled $183.8 million, an increase of $8.0 million, or 4.5%, over the prior quarter and was 37% of total revenue in both the current and prior quarters.

•Trust fees grew $15.9 million, or 28.7%, over the same period last year, and bank card fees grew $2.5 million, or 5.6%, over the prior quarter.

•Non-interest expense totaled $297.1 million, an increase of $5.9 million, or 2.0%, over the prior quarter.

•Assets under administration grew $3.1 billion, or 3.4%, over the prior quarter.

•Average loan balances totaled $20.5 billion, an increase of $176.6 million, or .9%, over the prior quarter.

•Total average available for sale debt securities decreased $247.1 million from the prior quarter to $8.7 billion, at fair value.

•Investment securities gains included a $105.4 million gain on Visa Inc. stock and a $97.7 million loss on the repositioning of a portion of the Company’s available for sale debt securities portfolio, which included the sale of the Company’s portfolio of U.S. Treasury inflation-protected securities.

•Total average deposits decreased $135.0 million, or .5%, from the prior quarter to $27.6 billion.

•The ratio of annualized net loan charge-offs to average loans was .19% in the current quarter compared to .30% in the prior quarter.

•The allowance for credit losses on loans decreased $3.2 million during the second quarter of 2026 to $195.4 million, and the ratio of the allowance for credit losses on loans to total loans was .94% at June 30, 2026, compared to .97% at March 31, 2026.

•The Company purchased approximately 2.1 million shares of its common stock during the current quarter at an average price of $53.03.

•Total assets on June 30, 2026 were $35.3 billion, a decrease of $448.1 million from the prior quarter.

•For the quarter, the return on average assets was 1.84%, the return on average equity was 14.70%, and the efficiency ratio was 58.40%.

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. is a regional bank holding company offering a full line of banking services through its subsidiaries, including paymen

2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Jul 16, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-0.35%

$58.93

Act: -0.61%

5D

-1.94%

$57.99

Act: -0.08%

20D

-1.39%

$58.32

Price: $59.14 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0000022356-26-000176

EX-99.1

2 cbsh06302026ex991.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

Exhibit 99.1

CBSH

1000 Walnut Street / Suite 700 / Kansas City, Missouri 64106 / 816.234.2000

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:

Thursday, July 16, 2026

COMMERCE BANCSHARES, INC. REPORTS

SECOND QUARTER EARNINGS PER SHARE OF $1.10

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. announced earnings of $1.10 per share for the three months ended June 30, 2026, compared to $1.09 per share in the same quarter last year and $.96 per share in the first quarter of 2026. Net income for the second quarter of 2026 amounted to $159.8 million, compared to $152.5 million in the second quarter of 2025 and $141.6 million in the prior quarter.

For the six months ended June 30, 2026, earnings per share totaled $2.06 compared to $2.02 for the first six months of 2025. Net income amounted to $301.4 million for the six months ended June 30, 2026, compared to $284.1 million in the comparable period last year. For the year to date, the return on average assets was 1.73%, and the return on average equity was 13.96%.

In making this announcement, John Kemper, Chief Executive Officer, said, “Commerce delivered a strong quarter, with expanding net interest margin, solid loan growth, lower funding costs and excellent credit quality. These results drove a return on average assets of 1.84% and reflect the strength of our business model, our diversified revenue streams and our team’s continued focus on long-standing customer relationships.”

Mr. Kemper continued, “Revenue growth was broad-based during the quarter. Net interest income increased as margin expanded to 3.77%, and fee revenue grew $8.0 million this quarter, supported by continued strength in trust, bank card and deposit-related businesses. We believe this balanced revenue mix remains a key differentiator for Commerce and supports consistent performance across economic cycles.”

“We remained focused on disciplined capital management. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 2.1 million shares of common stock for $110 million while maintaining a strong capital position. This gives us flexibility to invest in growth, support our customers and continue returning capital to shareholders.”

“We also completed the repositioning of a portion of our available for sale securities portfolio, including the sale of our Treasury inflation-protected securities portfolio. This repositioning increases the portfolio’s overall yield, improves the consistency of future net interest income, and supports a more durable net interest margin over time. We believe these portfolio changes strengthen Commerce’s long-term earnings profile and position us to deliver sustained shareholder value.”

Second Quarter 2026 Financial Highlights:

•Net interest income was $315.1 million, a $15.2 million increase over the prior quarter. The net yield on interest earning assets increased 18 basis points to 3.77%.

1

Exhibit 99.1

•Non-interest income totaled $183.8 million, an increase of $8.0 million, or 4.5%, over the prior quarter and was 37% of total revenue in both the current and prior quarters.

•Trust fees grew $15.9 million, or 28.7%, over the same period last year, and bank card fees grew $2.5 million, or 5.6%, over the prior quarter.

•Non-interest expense totaled $297.1 million, an increase of $5.9 million, or 2.0%, over the prior quarter.

•Assets under administration grew $3.1 billion, or 3.4%, over the same period last year.

•Average loan balances totaled $20.5 billion, an increase of $176.6 million, or .9%, over the prior quarter.

•Total average available for sale debt securities decreased $247.1 million from the prior quarter to $8.7 billion, at fair value.

•Investment securities gains included a $105.4 million gain on Visa Inc. stock and a $97.7 million loss on the repositioning of a portion of the Company’s available for sale debt securities portfolio, which included the sale of the Company’s portfolio of U.S. Treasury inflation-protected securities.

•Total average deposits decreased $135.0 million, or .5%, from the prior quarter to $27.6 billion.

•The ratio of annualized net loan charge-offs to average loans was .19% in the current quarter compared to .30% in the prior quarter.

•The allowance for credit losses on loans decreased $3.2 million during the second quarter of 2026 to $195.4 million, and the ratio of the allowance for credit losses on loans to total loans was .94% at June 30, 2026, compared to .97% at March 31, 2026.

•The Company purchased approximately 2.1 million shares of its common stock during the current quarter at an average price of $53.03.

•Total assets on June 30, 2026 were $35.3 billion, a decrease of $448.1 million from the prior quarter.

•For the quarter, the return on average assets was 1.84%, the return on average equity was 14.70%, and the efficiency ratio was 58.40%.

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. is a regional bank holding company offering a full line of banking services through its subsidiaries, includin

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K

Apr 21, 2026

0000022356-26-000123

EX-99.1

2 cbsh03312026ex991.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

Exhibit 99.1

CBSH

1000 Walnut Street / Suite 700 / Kansas City, Missouri 64106 / 816.234.2000

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:

Tuesday, April 21, 2026

COMMERCE BANCSHARES, INC. REPORTS

FIRST QUARTER EARNINGS PER SHARE OF $.96

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. announced earnings of $.96 per share for the three months ended March 31, 2026, compared to $.93 per share in the same quarter last year and $1.01 per share in the fourth quarter of 2025. Net income for the first quarter of 2026 amounted to $141.6 million, compared to $131.6 million in the first quarter of 2025 and $140.7 million in the prior quarter.

In making this announcement, John Kemper, Chief Executive Officer, said, “We delivered a strong first quarter highlighted by solid profitability and continued momentum across our diversified fee businesses. This was also our first full quarter incorporating FineMark, a strategic investment that meaningfully enhances our private banking and wealth management capabilities and expands our presence in highly attractive growth markets. Our overall performance reflected the strength of our franchise, supported by resilient net interest income, continued trust fee growth, and solid returns across our core profitability measures.

Mr. Kemper continued, “Our return on average assets remained solid at 1.62% while maintaining excellent credit quality, with non-accrual loans at just .05% of total loans. Non-interest income was $175.9 million and comprised 37% of total revenue.”

“We also remained focused on thoughtful capital deployment, returning excess capital to shareholders through the repurchase of more than $84 million of common stock this quarter while maintaining a conservative capital posture that underpins our long‑term strength and flexibility. As we look ahead, Commerce is well positioned to navigate an uncertain economic environment with discipline and confidence, balancing near‑term conditions with continued investment in long‑term growth. Our strategy remains centered on delivering consistent performance and creating durable, long‑term value for our shareholders."

First Quarter 2026 Financial Highlights:

•On January 1, 2026, Commerce Bancshares, Inc. completed its acquisition of FineMark Holdings, Inc.

•Net interest income was $299.8 million, a $16.7 million increase over the prior quarter. The net yield on interest earning assets decreased one basis point to 3.59%.

•Non-interest income totaled $175.9 million, an increase of $16.9 million, or 10.6%, over the same quarter last year.

1

Exhibit 99.1

•Trust fees grew $14.5 million, or 25.5%, over the same period last year, mostly due to higher private client fees.

•Non-interest expense totaled $291.1 million and included $14.0 million in acquisition-related expense.

•Assets under administration grew $14.9 billion, or 19.5%, over the same period last year.

•Average loan balances totaled $20.3 billion, an increase of $2.7 billion, or 15.2%, over the prior quarter.

•Total average available for sale debt securities decreased $269.0 million from the prior quarter to $8.9 billion, at fair value.

•Total average deposits increased $2.1 billion, or 8.2%, over the prior quarter to $27.7 billion.

•The ratio of annualized net loan charge-offs to average loans was .30% in the current quarter compared to .22% in the prior quarter.

•The allowance for credit losses on loans increased $19.1 million during the first quarter of 2026 to $198.6 million, and the ratio of the allowance for credit losses on loans to total loans was .97% at March 31, 2026, compared to 1.01% at December 31, 2025.

•Total assets on March 31, 2026 were $35.7 billion, an increase of $2.8 billion over the prior quarter.

•For the quarter, the return on average assets was 1.62%, the return on average equity was 13.22%, and the efficiency ratio was 60.0%. Quarterly profitability metrics reflected elevated acquisition-related expenses of approximately $14 million, which temporarily pressured the efficiency ratio and return on average assets.

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. is a regional bank holding company offering a full line of banking services through its subsidiaries, including payment solutions, wealth management and securities brokerage. Commerce Bank, its primary subsidiary, brings over 160 years of experience helping individuals and businesses through high-touch service and sophisticated, personalized financial solutions. Commerce maintains an extensive network of banking centers, wealth offices, and ATMs throughout the Midwest, as well as commercial offices in 11 states and offers payment solutions nationwide. With the acquisition of FineMark Holdings, Inc., Commerce builds on its existing private banking and wealth management presence in Florida and adds wealth offices in Arizona and South Carolina. Customers can conveniently access their account 24/7 using mobile and online platforms, as well as a customer service lin

About Commerce Bancshares Inc. (CBSH) Earnings

This page provides Commerce Bancshares Inc. (CBSH) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on CBSH's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Share on Social Networks: