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AI Earnings Predictions for Commerce Bancshares Inc. (CBSH)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

+1.53%

$55.26

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-1.01%

$53.88

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-2.04%

$53.32

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $54.43 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q4 2025

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Jan 22, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

+1.53%

$55.26

5D

-1.01%

$53.88

20D

-2.04%

$53.32

Price: $54.43 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0000022356-26-000002

cbsh-20260122False000002235600000223562026-01-222026-01-22

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549


Form 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE

SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): January 22, 2026

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Missouri 001-36502 43-0889454 (State of Incorporation) (Commission File Number) (IRS Employer Identification No.)

1000 Walnut, Kansas City,MO 64106 (Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)

(816) 234-2000 (Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions: ☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of classTrading symbol(s)Name of exchange on which registered $5 Par Value Common StockCBSHNASDAQ Global Select Market

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition A copy of the press release issued January 22, 2026 by Commerce Bancshares, Inc. announcing Fourth Quarter 2025 earnings is furnished under Item 2.02 of this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. Additionally, a slide presentation for investors and analysts is being furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibits, is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02 and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section. Furthermore, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibits, shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into the filings of Commerce Bancshares, Inc. under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. All information included in this Current Report on Form 8-K is available on the Company’s website at https://investor.commercebank.com/news-info/financial-news-releases/default.aspx.

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits

Exhibits 99.1    Press release dated January 22, 2026 99.2    Slide presentation for investors and analysts dated January 22, 2026 104    The XBRL tags on the cover page of this Form 8-K are embedded within the Inline XBRL document.

SIGNATURE

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

COMMERCE BANCSHARES, INC.

By:  /s/ Paul A. Steiner Paul A. Steiner Controller (Chief Accounting Officer)

Date: January 22, 2026

2025
Q3

Q3 2025 Earnings

8-K

Oct 16, 2025

0000022356-25-000089

cbsh-20251016False000002235600000223562025-10-162025-10-16

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549


Form 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE

SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): October 16, 2025

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Missouri 001-36502 43-0889454 (State of Incorporation) (Commission File Number) (IRS Employer Identification No.)

1000 Walnut, Kansas City,MO 64106 (Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)

(816) 234-2000 (Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions: ☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of classTrading symbol(s)Name of exchange on which registered $5 Par Value Common StockCBSHNASDAQ Global Select Market

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition A copy of the press release issued October 16, 2025 by Commerce Bancshares, Inc. announcing Third Quarter 2025 earnings is furnished under Item 2.02 of this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. Additionally, a slide presentation for investors and analysts is being furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibits, is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02 and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section. Furthermore, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibits, shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into the filings of Commerce Bancshares, Inc. under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. All information included in this Current Report on Form 8-K is available on the Company’s website at https://investor.commercebank.com/news-info/financial-news-releases/default.aspx.

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits

Exhibits 99.1    Press release dated October 16, 2025 99.2    Slide presentation for investors and analysts dated October 16, 2025 104    The XBRL tags on the cover page of this Form 8-K are embedded within the Inline XBRL document.

SIGNATURE

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

COMMERCE BANCSHARES, INC.

By:  /s/ Paul A. Steiner Paul A. Steiner Controller (Chief Accounting Officer)

Date: October 16, 2025

2025
Q2

Q2 2025 Earnings

8-K

Jul 16, 2025

0000022356-25-000043

cbsh-20250716False000002235600000223562025-07-162025-07-16

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549


Form 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE

SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): July 16, 2025

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Missouri 001-36502 43-0889454 (State of Incorporation) (Commission File Number) (IRS Employer Identification No.)

1000 Walnut, Kansas City,MO 64106 (Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)

(816) 234-2000 (Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions: ☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of classTrading symbol(s)Name of exchange on which registered $5 Par Value Common StockCBSHNASDAQ Global Select Market

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition A copy of the press release issued July 16, 2025 by Commerce Bancshares, Inc. announcing Second Quarter 2025 earnings is furnished under Item 2.02 of this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. Additionally, a slide presentation for investors and analysts is being furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibits, is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02 and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section. Furthermore, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibits, shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into the filings of Commerce Bancshares, Inc. under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. All information included in this Current Report on Form 8-K is available on the Company’s website at https://investor.commercebank.com/news-info/financial-news-releases/default.aspx.

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits

Exhibits 99.1    Press release dated July 16, 2025 99.2    Slide presentation for investors and analysts dated July 16, 2025 104    The XBRL tags on the cover page of this Form 8-K are embedded within the Inline XBRL document.

SIGNATURE

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

COMMERCE BANCSHARES, INC.

By:  /s/ Paul A. Steiner Paul A. Steiner Controller (Chief Accounting Officer)

Date: July 16, 2025

About Commerce Bancshares Inc. (CBSH) Earnings

This page provides Commerce Bancshares Inc. (CBSH) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on CBSH's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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