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AI Earnings Predictions for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+0.78%

$895.08

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+3.57%

$919.92

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+7.77%

$957.17

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $888.18 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q1 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q1 2026 BUY +0.78% +3.57% +7.77% 100.0% +0.85%
Q4 2025 BUY +1.03% +3.80% +7.22% 100.0% +1.96%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

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2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Apr 30, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+0.78%

$895.08

Act: +0.31%

5D

+3.57%

$919.92

Act: +0.85%

20D

+7.77%

$957.17

Act: -1.85%

Price: $888.18 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0000018230-26-000017

EX-99.1

2 ex991toformcat1q2026earnin.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

Caterpillar Inc.

1Q 2026 Earnings Release

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Caterpillar Reports First-Quarter 2026 Results

First Quarter

($ in billions except profit per share)20262025

Sales and Revenues$17.4$14.2

Profit Per Share$5.47$4.20

Adjusted Profit Per Share$5.54$4.25

Please see a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures in the appendix on pages 12 and 13.

●First-quarter 2026 sales and revenues increased 22% to $17.4 billion

●First-quarter 2026 profit per share of $5.47; adjusted profit per share of $5.54

●Deployed $5.7 billion of cash for share repurchases and dividends in the first quarter

IRVING, Texas, Apr. 30, 2026 – Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) announced first-quarter 2026 results.

“Our team delivered a strong start to the year, driven by resilient end markets and disciplined execution in a dynamic operating environment,” said Caterpillar Chairman and CEO Joe Creed. “Solid sales and revenues growth, combined with robust order activity, demonstrate the strength of our business and our focus on solving our customers’ toughest challenges. A record backlog provides a strong foundation for continued positive momentum.”

Sales and revenues for the first quarter of 2026 were $17.4 billion, a 22% increase compared with $14.2 billion in the first quarter of 2025. The increase was primarily due to higher sales volume of $2.3 billion and favorable price realization of $426 million.

Operating profit margin was 17.7% for the first quarter of 2026, compared with 18.1% for the first quarter of 2025. Adjusted operating profit margin was 18.0% for the first quarter of 2026, compared with 18.3% for the first quarter of 2025. First-quarter 2026 profit per share was $5.47, compared with first-quarter 2025 profit per share of $4.20. Adjusted profit per share in the first quarter of 2026 was $5.54, compared with first-quarter 2025 adjusted profit per share of $4.25. For the first quarter of 2026 and 2025, adjusted operating profit margin and adjusted profit per share excluded restructuring costs.

For the first quarter of 2026, enterprise operating cash flow was $1.9 billion, and the company ended the first quarter with $4.1 billion of enterprise cash. In the quarter, the company deployed $5.0 billion of cash for repurchases of Caterpillar common stock and $0.7 billion of cash for dividends.

(more)

2

CONSOLIDATED RESULTS

Consolidated Sales and Revenues

The chart above graphically illustrates reasons for the change in consolidated sales and revenues between the first quarter of 2025 (at left) and the first quarter of 2026 (at right). Caterpillar management utilizes these charts internally to visually communicate with the company’s board of directors and employees.

Total sales and revenues for the first quarter of 2026 were $17.415 billion, an increase of $3.166 billion, or 22%, compared with $14.249 billion in the first quarter of 2025. The increase was primarily due to higher sales volume of $2.3 billion and favorable price realization of $426 million. Higher sales volume was mainly driven by the impact from changes in dealer inventories and higher sales of equipment to end users. Dealer inventory increased more during the first quarter of 2026 than during the first quarter of 2025.

Sales were higher across the three primary segments.

Sales and Revenues by Segment

(Millions of dollars)First Quarter 2025Sales VolumePrice RealizationCurrencyInter-Segment / OtherFirst Quarter 2026$ Change% Change

Power & Energy$5,783 $840 $108 $111 $189 $7,031 $1,248 22%

Construction Industries5,184 1,459 356 143 19 7,161 1,977 38%

Resource Industries3,661 85 (39)78 12 3,797 136 4%

All Other Segment70 1 — — 6 77 7 10%

Corporate Items and Eliminations(1,320)(67)1 19 (226)(1,593)(273)

Machinery, Power & Energy13,378 2,318 426 351 — 16,473 3,095 23%

Financial Products Segment1,007 — — — 89 1,096 89 9%

Corporate Items and Eliminations(136)— — — (18)(154)(18)

Financial Products Revenues871 — — — 71 942 71 8%

Consolidated Sales and Revenues$14,249 $2,318 $426 $351 $71 $17,415 $3,166 22%

(more)

3

Sales and Revenues by Geographic Region

North AmericaLatin AmericaEAMEAsia/PacificExternal Sales and RevenuesInter-SegmentTotal Sales and Revenues

(Millions of dollars)$% Chg$% Chg$% Chg$% Chg$% Chg$% Chg$% Chg

First Quarter 2026

Power & Energy$3,500 33%$278 (15%)$1,141 11%$794 17%$5,713 23%$1,318 17%$7,031 22%

Construction Industries4,292 48%650 29%1,199 38%961 11%7,102 38%59 48%7,161 38%

Resource Industries1,836 14%572 (6%)560 10%742 (14%)3,710 3%87 16%3,797 4%

All Other Segment7 (13%)— —%3 200%2 —%12 9%65 10%77 10%

Corporate Items and Eliminations(55)— (4)(5)(64)(1,529)(1,593)

Machinery, Power & Energy9,580 34%1,500 5%2,899 21%2,494 4%16,473 23%— —%16,473 23%

Financial Products Segment741 9%111 12%133 9%111 7%1,096 9%— —%1,096 9%

Corporate Items and Eliminations(91)(19)(24)(20)(154)— (154)

Financial Products Revenues650 8%92

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K BUY

Jan 29, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+1.03%

$672.09

Act: -0.99%

5D

+3.80%

$690.55

Act: +1.96%

20D

+7.22%

$713.30

Act: +11.57%

Price: $665.24 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0000018230-26-000003

cat-202601290000018230false00000182302026-01-282026-01-280000018230us-gaap:CommonStockMember2026-01-282026-01-280000018230cat:A5.3DebenturesDueSeptember152035Member2026-01-282026-01-28

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM8-K

Current Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported):January 29, 2026

CATERPILLAR INC.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Delaware1-76837-0602744 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation) (Commission File Number) (I.R.S Employer Identification No.)

5205 N. O'Connor Blvd.,Suite 100,Irving,Texas75039 (Address of principal executive offices)(Zip Code) Registrant’s telephone number, including area code:(972)891-7700 Former name or former address, if changed since last report:N/A

☐Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each classTrading Symbol (s)Name of each exchange which registered Common Stock ($1.00 par value)CATThe New York Stock Exchange 5.3% Debentures due September 15, 2035CAT35The New York Stock Exchange

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions: Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined by Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (17 CFR §230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (17 CFR §240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.☐

Item 2.02. Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, Caterpillar Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated into this Item 2.02 by reference. Item 7.01. Regulation FD Disclosure.

Caterpillar Inc. is furnishing supplemental information concerning (i) retail sales of machines to end users and (ii) retail sales of power systems (including reciprocating and turbine engines and locomotives) to end users and Original Equipment Manufacturers ("OEMs"). This supplemental information is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated into this Item 7.01 by reference.

The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished in accordance with the provisions of General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K.

Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d)Exhibits: The following is furnished as an exhibit to this report: 99.1Caterpillar Inc. press release dated January 29, 2026

99.2Retail Statistics

104The cover page from this Current Report on Form 8-K, formatted in Inline XBRL.

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

CATERPILLAR INC.

January 29, 2026 By:/s/ Derek Owens Derek Owens Chief Legal Officer and General Counsel

2025
Q3

Q3 2025 Earnings

8-K

Oct 29, 2025

0000018230-25-000043

cat-202510290000018230false00000182302025-10-282025-10-280000018230us-gaap:CommonStockMember2025-10-282025-10-280000018230cat:A5.3DebenturesDueSeptember152035Member2025-10-282025-10-28

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM8-K

Current Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported):October 29, 2025

CATERPILLAR INC.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Delaware1-76837-0602744 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation) (Commission File Number) (I.R.S Employer Identification No.)

5205 N. O'Connor Blvd.,Suite 100,Irving,Texas75039 (Address of principal executive offices)(Zip Code) Registrant’s telephone number, including area code:(972)891-7700 Former name or former address, if changed since last report:N/A

☐Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each classTrading Symbol (s)Name of each exchange which registered Common Stock ($1.00 par value)CATThe New York Stock Exchange 5.3% Debentures due September 15, 2035CAT35The New York Stock Exchange

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions: Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined by Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (17 CFR §230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (17 CFR §240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.☐

Item 2.02. Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2025, Caterpillar Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated into this Item 2.02 by reference. Item 7.01. Regulation FD Disclosure.

Caterpillar Inc. is furnishing supplemental information concerning (i) retail sales of machines to end users and (ii) retail sales of power systems (including reciprocating and turbine engines and locomotives) to end users and Original Equipment Manufacturers ("OEMs"). This supplemental information is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated into this Item 7.01 by reference.

The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished in accordance with the provisions of General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K.

Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d)Exhibits: The following is furnished as an exhibit to this report: 99.1Caterpillar Inc. press release dated October 29, 2025

99.2Retail Statistics

104The cover page from this Current Report on Form 8-K, formatted in Inline XBRL.

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

CATERPILLAR INC.

October 29, 2025 By:/s/ Derek Owens Derek Owens Chief Legal Officer and General Counsel

About Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) Earnings

This page provides Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on CAT's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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