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AI Earnings Predictions for The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-5.53%

$25.21

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-6.39%

$24.98

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-5.49%

$25.23

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $26.69 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

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2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Jul 30, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-5.53%

$25.21

Act: +3.93%

5D

-6.39%

$24.98

Act: +7.16%

20D

-5.49%

$25.23

Price: $26.69 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001781755-26-000047

EX-99.1

2 ex99-1fy2026q2earningsrele.htm

EX-99.1

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Exhibit 99.1

THE BALDWIN GROUP ANNOUNCES SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS

— Second Quarter Total Revenue Growth of 30% to $492.9 Million —

— Second Quarter Net Loss of $56.0 Million; Adjusted EBITDA(1) Growth of 37% to $116.7 Million —

— Second Quarter Diluted Loss Per Share of $0.42; Adjusted Diluted EPS(2) of $0.48 —

— Second Quarter Net Loss Margin of 11%; Adjusted EBITDA Margin(1) of 24% —

— Second Quarter Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities of $45.6 Million; Adjusted Free Cash Flow(3) Increased 437% to $46.4 Million —

— Year-to-Date Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities of $39.5 Million; Adjusted Free Cash Flow Increased 34% to $46.2 Million —

TAMPA, FLORIDA - July 30, 2026 - The Baldwin Group, the brand name for The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (“Baldwin” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: BWIN), an independent insurance distribution firm delivering tailored insurance solutions to a wide range of personal and commercial clients, today announced its results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026.

SECOND QUARTER 2026 HIGHLIGHTS

•Total revenue increased 30% year-over-year to $492.9 million

•Organic revenue growth(4) of 2% year-over-year

•CAC Group total revenue growth(5) of 23% year-over-year

•GAAP net loss of $56.0 million and GAAP diluted loss per share of $0.42

•Adjusted net income(2) of $68.5 million

•Adjusted diluted EPS increased 14% year-over-year to $0.48

•Adjusted EBITDA grew 37% to $116.7 million

•Net loss margin of 11%

•Adjusted EBITDA margin of 23.7%, a 110 basis point expansion compared to 22.6% in the prior-year period

•Net cash provided by operating activities of $45.6 million

•Adjusted free cash flow increased 437% year-over-year to $46.4 million

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“We are thrilled with our momentum as reflected in our strong second quarter results. Total revenue grew 30% to $492.9 million, adjusted EBITDA grew 37% to $116.7 million, and adjusted free cash flow increased 437% to $46.4 million,” said Trevor Baldwin, Chief Executive Officer of The Baldwin Group. “As we previously highlighted, we have largely lapped the idiosyncratic, one-time headwinds that we believe will transition into tailwinds for our business in the back half of 2026. When combined with the strong contribution from our recent partnerships, we continue to win market share at an outsized rate, evidenced by sales velocity of 30% in our combined IAS business and normalized organic growth of 8%. This is a testament to the depth of expertise, value delivered to clients, and commitment from our dedicated colleagues.”

Baldwin added, “We remain excited for the opportunities we have ahead of us and what we can achieve in the coming year for shareholders, clients and colleagues.”

LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

As of June 30, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $184.5 million and the Company had $259.4 million of borrowing capacity under its revolving credit facility.

SIX MONTHS 2026 RESULTS

•Revenue increased 29% year-over-year to $1.0 billion

•Organic revenue growth of 2% year-over-year

•CAC Group total revenue growth of 25% year-over-year

•GAAP net loss of $57.9 million and GAAP diluted loss per share of $0.39

•Adjusted net income of $157.8 million

•Adjusted diluted EPS grew 5% year-over-year to $1.11

•Adjusted EBITDA grew 27% year-over-year to $254.0 million

•Net loss margin of 6%

•Adjusted EBITDA margin was 24.8% compared to 25.2% in the prior-year period

•Net cash provided by operating activities of $39.5 million

•Adjusted free cash flow increased 34% year-over-year to $46.2 million

WEBCAST AND CONFERENCE CALL INFORMATION

Baldwin will host a live audio webcast today at 5:00 PM Eastern Time to discuss the Company’s second quarter 2026 performance, including management’s perspectives on the business. The live audio webcast will be accessible via Baldwin’s investor relations website at ir.baldwin.com and a replay of the webcast will be available at ir.baldwin.com for approximately one year.

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ABOUT THE BALDWIN GROUP

The Baldwin Group, the brand name for The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. ("Baldwin") (NASDAQ: BWIN) and its affiliates, is an independent insurance distribution firm providing indispensable expertise and insights that strive to give our clients the confidence to pursue their purpose, passion and dreams. As a team of dedicated entrepreneurs and insurance professionals, we have come together to help protect the possible for our clients. We do this by delivering bespoke client solutions, services, and innovation through our comprehensive and tailored approach to risk management, insurance, and employee benefits. We support our clients, colleagues, insurance company partners, and communities through the deployment of vanguard resources and capital to drive our organic and inorganic growth. The Baldwin Group proudly represents more than three million clients across the United States and internationally. For

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K

May 4, 2026

0001781755-26-000032

EX-99.1

2 ex99-1fy2026q1earningsrele.htm

EX-99.1

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Exhibit 99.1

THE BALDWIN GROUP ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS

— First Quarter Total Revenue Growth of 29% to $532.2 Million; Organic Revenue Growth(1) of 2% —

— First Quarter Net Loss of $1.9 Million; Adjusted EBITDA(2) Growth of 21% to $137.2 Million —

— First Quarter Diluted Earnings Per Share of $0.02; Adjusted Diluted EPS(3) of $0.63 —

— First Quarter Net Loss Margin of 0%; Adjusted EBITDA Margin(2) of 26% —

TAMPA, FLORIDA - May 4, 2026 - The Baldwin Group, the brand name for The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (“Baldwin” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: BWIN), an independent insurance distribution firm delivering tailored insurance solutions to a wide range of personal and commercial clients, today announced its results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026.

FIRST QUARTER 2026 HIGHLIGHTS

•Total revenue increased 29% year-over-year to $532.2 million

•Organic revenue growth of 2% year-over-year

•GAAP net loss of $1.9 million and GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.02

•Adjusted net income(3) of $89.3 million

•Adjusted diluted EPS decreased 3% year-over-year to $0.63

•Adjusted EBITDA grew 21% to $137.2 million

•Net loss margin of 0%

•Adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.8% compared to 27.5% in the prior-year period

•Net cash used in operating activities of $6.1 million

•Adjusted free cash flow(4) of $(0.2) million

"Our first quarter results demonstrate the durability and accelerating earnings power of our differentiated platform," said Trevor Baldwin, Chief Executive Officer of The Baldwin Group. "Total revenue grew 29% to $532.2 million and adjusted EBITDA grew 21% to $137.2 million, reflecting strong early contributions from our January partnerships—led by CAC Group—alongside continued execution across our core operating groups. CAC Group integration is meaningfully ahead of plan, with approximately 80% of targeted three-year expense synergies already actioned and revenue cross-sell wins materializing at scale more quickly than anticipated. Normalized organic growth of approximately 9%(5) inclusive of new partnerships underscores the trajectory of the business. We remain firmly on track to deliver accelerating organic growth through the year, exiting 2026 on a double-digit organic growth run rate and to continue advancing our $3B/30 Catalyst transformation program."

1

LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

As of March 31, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $146 million and the Company had $393 million of borrowing capacity under its revolving credit facility.

WEBCAST AND CONFERENCE CALL INFORMATION

Baldwin will host a webcast and conference call to discuss first quarter 2026 results today at 5:00 PM ET. A live webcast and a slide presentation of the conference call will be available on Baldwin’s investor relations website at ir.baldwin.com. The dial-in number for the conference call is (877) 451-6152 (toll-free) or (201) 389-0879 (international). Please dial the number 10 minutes prior to the scheduled start time.

A webcast replay of the call will be available at ir.baldwin.com for one year following the call.

ABOUT THE BALDWIN GROUP

The Baldwin Group, the brand name for The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. ("Baldwin") (NASDAQ: BWIN) and its affiliates, is an independent insurance distribution firm providing indispensable expertise and insights that strive to give our clients the confidence to pursue their purpose, passion and dreams. As a team of dedicated entrepreneurs and insurance professionals, we have come together to help protect the possible for our clients. We do this by delivering bespoke client solutions, services, and innovation through our comprehensive and tailored approach to risk management, insurance, and employee benefits. We support our clients, colleagues, insurance company partners, and communities through the deployment of vanguard resources and capital to drive our organic and inorganic growth. The Baldwin Group proudly represents more than three million clients across the United States and internationally. For more information, please visit www.baldwin.com.

FOOTNOTES

(1)    Organic revenue for the three months ended March 31, 2025 used to calculate organic revenue growth for the three months ended March 31, 2026 was $410.4 million, which is adjusted to exclude commissions and fees from divestitures that occurred during 2025. Organic revenue is also adjusted to exclude the first 12 months of commissions and fees generated from new partners during the three months ended March 31, 2026. Organic revenue and organic revenue growth are non-GAAP measures. Reconciliation of organic revenue and organic revenue growth to commissions and fees, the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, is set forth in the reconciliation table accompanying this release.

(2)    Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin are non-GAAP measures. Reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin to ne

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K

Feb 26, 2026

0001781755-26-000015

EX-99.1

2 ex991bwinfy2025q4earningsr.htm

EX-99.1

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EXHIBIT 99.1

THE BALDWIN GROUP ANNOUNCES FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR 2025 RESULTS AND $250 MILLION SHARE REPURCHASE PROGRAM

— Full Year 2025 Total Revenue Growth of 8% to $1.5 Billion; Organic Revenue Growth(1) of 7% —

— Full Year 2025 Net Loss of $54.2 Million and Diluted Loss Per Share of $0.50; Adjusted Diluted EPS(2) of $1.67 —

— Full Year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Margin(3). of 23% —

TAMPA, FLORIDA - February 26, 2026 - The Baldwin Group, the brand name for The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (“Baldwin” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: BWIN), an independent insurance distribution firm delivering tailored insurance solutions to a wide range of personal and commercial clients, today announced its results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025.

In addition, the Company’s Board of Directors has authorized the repurchase of up to $250 million of its outstanding common stock.

The Company’s common stock may be repurchased from time to time in open market transactions, privately negotiated transactions or by any other means in compliance with applicable law (including pursuant to repurchase plans in compliance with Rule 10b5-1 and/or Rule 10b-18). The timing and number of shares repurchased may depend on a variety of factors, including the Company's stock price, availability of stock, market and economic conditions, the Company’s financial performance, alternative uses for capital, and other considerations. Repurchases may be commenced or suspended from time to time without further notice. There can be no assurances how many shares of common stock, if any, the Company may repurchase.

FOURTH QUARTER 2025 HIGHLIGHTS

•Total revenue increased 5% year-over-year to $347.3 million

•Organic revenue growth of 3% year-over-year

•GAAP net loss of $43.7 million and GAAP diluted loss per share of $0.37

•Adjusted net income(2) of $36.3 million

•Adjusted diluted EPS grew 15% year-over-year to $0.31

•Adjusted EBITDA(3) grew 10% year-over-year to $69.6 million

•Adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.1%, a 100 basis point expansion compared to 19.1% in the prior year

•Net cash provided by operating activities of $10.3 million

•Adjusted free cash flow(4) grew 85% year-over-year to $11.0 million

1

"2025 was a year of significant progress for The Baldwin Group,” said Trevor Baldwin, Chief Executive Officer of The Baldwin Group. "We delivered our sixth consecutive year of top-of-industry organic growth, expanded margins, and grew adjusted diluted EPS by double digits—all while navigating meaningful near-term headwinds that will shortly be behind us. As the market debates the impact of AI on a multitude of industries, we believe our results, strong fundamentals and strategic positioning speak for themselves: our embedded insurance platforms, our advisory business serving complex clients, and our vertically integrated model across underwriting, distribution, and risk capital represent durable competitive moats that AI will enhance, not displace. With the addition of CAC Group and the launch of our $3B/30 Catalyst program, we are entering 2026 with the strongest platform in our history and a clear path to accelerate performance and stakeholder outcomes."

LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

As of December 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $123.7 million and the Company had $477.0 million of borrowing capacity under its revolving credit facility.

FULL YEAR 2025 HIGHLIGHTS

•Total revenue increased 8% year-over-year to $1.5 billion

•Organic revenue growth of 7% year-over-year

•GAAP net loss of $54.2 million and GAAP diluted loss per share of $0.50

•Adjusted net income of $198.9 million

•Adjusted diluted EPS grew 11% year-over-year to $1.67

•Adjusted EBITDA grew 9% year-over-year to $341.5 million

•Adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.7%, a 20 basis point expansion compared to 22.5% in the prior year

•Pro forma adjusted EBITDA(5) grew 13% year-over-year to $352.5 million

•Net cash used in operating activities of $29.4 million

•Adjusted free cash flow of $87.2 million

WEBCAST AND CONFERENCE CALL INFORMATION

Baldwin will host a webcast and conference call to discuss fourth quarter 2025 results today at 5:00 PM ET. A live webcast and a slide presentation of the conference call will be available on Baldwin’s investor relations website at ir.baldwin.com. The dial-in number for the conference call is (877) 451-6152 (toll-free) or (201) 389-0879 (international). Please dial the number 10 minutes prior to the scheduled start time.

A webcast replay of the call will be available at ir.baldwin.com for one year following the call.

2

ABOUT THE BALDWIN GROUP

The Baldwin Group, the brand name for The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: BWIN) and its affiliates, is an independent insurance distribution firm providing indispensable expertise and insights that strive to give our clients the confidence to pursue their purpose, passion and dreams. As a

About The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) Earnings

This page provides The Baldwin Insurance Group Inc. (BWIN) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on BWIN's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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