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AI Earnings Predictions for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-5.74%

$1.59

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-8.34%

$1.55

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-12.62%

$1.48

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $1.69 Confidence: 99.7% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Aug 6, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-5.74%

$1.59

5D

-8.34%

$1.55

20D

-12.62%

$1.48

Price: $1.69 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001941536-26-000023

baer-20260806

0001941536FALSE00019415362026-08-062026-08-060001941536baer:CommonStockParValue0.0001PerShareMember2026-08-062026-08-060001941536baer:WarrantsEachExercisableForOneShareOfCommonStockAtExercisePriceOf11.50PerShareMember2026-08-062026-08-06

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549


FORM 8-K


CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d)

of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): August 6, 2026


Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)


Delaware001-4160388-3599336

(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)(Commission File Number)(IRS Employer Identification No.)

90 Aviation Lane

Belgrade MT

59714

(Address of principal executive offices)(Zip Code)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (406) 813-0079


Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligations of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

☐Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each classTrading Symbol(s)Name of each exchange on which registered

Common Stock, par value $0.0001 per shareBAERThe Nasdaq Stock Market LLC

Warrants, each exercisable for one share of Common Stock at an exercise price of $11.50 per shareBAERWThe Nasdaq Stock Market LLC

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).

Emerging growth company x

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. o

Item 2.02Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On August 6, 2026, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.

The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that section and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.

Item 9.01

Financial Statements and Exhibits.

Exhibit No.Description

99.1 Press Release, dated August 6, 2026

104Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

BRIDGER AEROSPACE GROUP HOLDINGS, INC.

Dated: August 6, 2026By:/s/ Anne Hayes

Anne Hayes

Chief Financial Officer

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K

May 12, 2026

0001193125-26-219605

EX-99.1

2 d110889dex991.htm

EX-99.1

EX-99.1

Exhibit 99.1

May 6, 2026

Bridger Aerospace Reports First Quarter 2026 Results

First quarter 2026 revenue of $8.5 million, in line with guidance as the Company prepares for fire season

Based on current weather and environmental conditions, Bridger anticipates a highly active fire season

The Company reiterates 2026 guidance, including revenue expectations of $135 million to $145 million

BELGRADE, Mont.—(BUSINESS WIRE)— Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (“Bridger,” or “Bridger Aerospace” the “Company”) (NASDAQ: BAER, BAERW), one of the nation’s leading aerial firefighting companies, today reported financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026.

Q1 2026 Financial Highlights:

Results reflected normal winter maintenance costs and seasonal flight activity while Bridger readies the fleet for flight activity during fire season

Continued progress on fleet expansion, including modification of additional surveillance aircraft with next-generation technology to support increased deployment capacity

First quarter 2026 revenue of $8.5 million compared to $15.6 million in the prior-year period, reflecting a return to typical seasonal trends due to an unusually strong prior-year period driven by the Palisades fire and lower Super Scooper aircraft deployment ahead of peak fire season

Net loss for the first quarter of 2026 was $(31.3) million, with Adjusted EBITDA of $(14.5) million, driven by normal winter maintenance costs and seasonal flight activity. First quarter 2025 net loss of $(15.5) million and Adjusted EBITDA of $(5.1) million was driven by increased revenue reflecting an unusually strong period driven by the Palisades fire

Active pursuit of wildfire contracting opportunities for Spanish Super Scoopers in Europe and in the U.S.

Reiterating full year 2026 guidance:

Revenue expected to be between $135 million and $145 million, representing 14% growth at the midpoint of the range and growth of 29% when excluding non-recurring return to service work on the Spanish Super Scoopers in 2025

Adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $55 million and $60 million, representing 27% growth at the midpoint of the range

“We entered 2026 focused on ensuring our industry-leading fleet was fully prepared for what we expect to be a very active fire season. We achieved our earliest-ever mobilization of a multi-mission aircraft, with flight activity beginning in February in Oklahoma. Our continued emphasis on year-round readiness drove typical first-quarter investments in winter maintenance and flight training, positioning us to ramp revenue as fire activity increases,” said Sam Davis, Chief Executive Officer of Bridger Aerospace.

Mr. Davis continued, “Looking ahead, early indicators point to elevated wildfire risk, driven by historically low snowpack in the West and widespread drought conditions across much of the country. We believe these dynamics have yet to fully manifest, as fuel build-up and fire severity continue to develop. March was the warmest on record in the U.S. in 132 years, underscoring the urgency of the environment we are operating in. Against this backdrop, Bridger stands ready to protect lives, property, and the environment.”

Q1 2026 and Recent Operational Highlights:

Secured a five-year, $18.6 million Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contract with the U.S. Department

of the Interior to provide on-call fixed-wing transportation services in Alaska, supporting personnel and cargo transport to remote locations; contract runs from April 2026 through March 2031 and is expected to increase utilization of the Company’s expanded light fixed-wing fleet

Appointed Bill Andrews as Chief Operating Officer, effective March 2026, bringing more than 30 years of aerospace and aviation leadership experience to oversee fleet operations, maintenance, and mission support, with a focus on enhancing operational readiness, safety, and scalable growth

Appointed Justin Mogford as General Counsel and Corporate Secretary, effective April 2026, bringing extensive public company legal and aviation experience to lead the Company’s legal, compliance, and governance functions and support continued growth

Earliest deployment in Company history with federal multi-mission sensor aircraft indicates active management of

year-round wildfire threats and positioning for peak activity

Millions of acres flown with sensor aircraft to map and live-stream situational awareness to fire teams in states

seeing early and intense fire activity such as Nebraska, Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, Arizona and North Carolina

First Quarter 2026 Results

Revenue for the first quarter of 2026 was $8.5 million compared to $15.6 million in the first quarter of 2025, a decrease of 46%. Excluding a decrease in the return-to-service work performed on the Spanish Scoopers in connection with our partnership agreement with MAB Funding, LLC, the decrease in reve

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K

Mar 5, 2026

0001171843-26-001361

EX-99.1

2 exh_991.htm

EXHIBIT 99.1

EdgarFiling

EXHIBIT 99.1

Bridger Aerospace Announces Record 2025 Results: Revenue Grows 25%, Adjusted EBITDA up 21% Year-Over-Year and Delivers Positive Net Income

Initiates 2026 guidance, anticipating another record year

BELGRADE, Mont., March 05, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (“Bridger”, “the Company” or “Bridger Aerospace”), (NASDAQ: BAER, BAERW), one of the nation’s largest aerial firefighting companies, today reported financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, including positive net income for the full year.

Highlights:

Revenue for 2025 grew 25% to $122.8 million, surpassing the company’s increased guidance range Positive Net Income for 2025 was $4.1 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing 21% from 2024 to $45.3 million Completed $331.5 million financing package, including debt refinancing and a $100.0 million delayed draw facility, to bolster financial flexibility and fund strategic fleet expansion amid rising demand for aerial firefighting services Fleet expansion program advanced with the addition of the first two Spanish Scoopers to the operational fleet and four additional air surveillance aircraft added to the balance sheet Initiating 2026 guidance: Revenue expected to be between $135 million and $145 million, representing 14% growth at the midpoint of the range and growth of 29% when excluding non-recurring return to service work on the Spanish Scoopers in 2025 Adjusted EBITDA range of $55 million to $60 million representing growth of 27% at the midpoint of the range

Summary Financial Results

(In thousands) For the three months ended December 31, For the year ended December 31,

2025   2024   2025   2024

Revenues $8,547  $15,585  $122,830   98,613

Net (loss) income  (15,149)  (12,845)  4,140   (15,567)

Adjusted EBITDA  (9,543)  (2,901)  45,278   37,336

Net cash provided by operating activities      16,732   9,355

Cash and cash equivalents     $31,381  $39,336

“Our record financial performance in 2025, during a statistically below-average fire year, underscores the strength of our business model, growing diversification of our revenue stream and the benefits of longer-term contacts for our aircraft,” shared Sam Davis, Bridger’s Chief Executive Officer. “Our customers’ growing emphasis on early detection, combined with our outstanding team, helped drive the increased prepositioning and enhanced utilization of our fleet in 2025. As we complete fleet maintenance to ensure our year-round readiness, we are well positioned for another record year, both operationally and financially. Our new credit facility, including a $100 million Draw Down, further enables us to acquire new aircraft to better fight against the growing threat of wildfire, fulfill customer requests, and advance our mission to protect lives, property, critical infrastructure, and the environment.”

Fourth Quarter 2025 Results Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 was $8.5 million compared to $15.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. Excluding $0.8 million of revenue for return to service work performed on the four Spanish Super Scoopers as part of our partnership agreement with MAB Funding, LLC (“MAB”) in the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue was $7.7 million, compared to $10.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 after excluding $5.1 million of revenue for return to service work performed under the MAB agreement. The reduction in revenue year over year was also related to later deployment of Super Scoopers in the fourth quarter of 2024, into November.

Cost of revenues was $14.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to $15.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Selling, general and administrative expenses (“SG&A”) were $13.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to $7.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, primarily reflecting an increase in the fair value of our warrants and an increase in earnout consideration compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

Interest expense for the fourth quarter of 2025 was $6.0 million compared to $5.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Other income was $10.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to $0.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. The increase was primarily attributable to a gain of $16.9 million related to the sale-leaseback transaction partially offset by a loss of $7.8 million on the extinguishment of debt in conjunction with our debt refinancing in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Net loss was $15.1 million, or ($0.40) per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to a net loss of $12.8 million, or (0.36) per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2024. Adjusted EBITDA was negative ($9.5) million in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to negative ($2.9) million in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Definitions and reconciliations of net (loss) income to EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA, are attached as Exhibit A to this release.

As of

About Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) Earnings

This page provides Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on BAER's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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