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AI Earnings Predictions for Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc. (ASO)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-1.15%

$49.79

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-4.49%

$48.11

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-7.05%

$46.82

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $50.37 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q1 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q1 2026 SELL -1.15% -4.49% -7.05% 100.0% -2.04%
Q4 2025 BUY +3.03% +4.59% +4.83% 100.0% Pending
Q3 2025 BUY +2.97% +4.94% +4.58% 100.0% +1.13%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Jun 9, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-1.15%

$49.79

Act: -0.97%

5D

-4.49%

$48.11

Act: -2.04%

20D

-7.05%

$46.82

Act: -9.71%

Price: $50.37 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001817358-26-000105

EX-99.1

2 exhibit991pressreleaseq120.htm

EX-99.1

Document

Exhibit 99.1

Academy Sports + Outdoors Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results

First Quarter Sales Growth of 6.7%; Comparable Sales Growth of 2.9%

eCommerce Sales Increase of 17.4%

New Stores Comp Positive High Single Digits

First Quarter Diluted GAAP EPS of $0.80; up 17.6%; Adjusted EPS of $0.93; up 22.4%

Opened Two New Stores in Ohio and Oklahoma

Company Raises Guidance Based on First Quarter Performance

KATY, TEXAS (Globe Newswire — June 9, 2026) – Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (Nasdaq: ASO) (“Academy” or the “Company” ) today announced its financial results for the first quarter ended May 2, 2026.

“We were pleased with the continued improvement in our results in Q1, with total sales up 6.7%, driven by increases in both traffic and average ticket," said Steve Lawrence, Chief Executive Officer. "Based on our Q1 performance, we are raising the low end of our full-year guidance. While we expect inflationary pressures to continue impacting consumer spending for the remainder of the year, our goal is to build on the momentum in our business. We plan to accomplish this by methodically executing against our long-range strategies as we continue to offer customers compelling assortments at outstanding values.”

First Quarter Operating Results

($ in millions, except per share data)

Thirteen Weeks Ended Change

May 2, 2026May 3, 2025%

Net sales$1,442.0 $1,351.4 6.7%

Comparable sales2.9 %(3.7)%

Income before income tax$68.9 $63.0 9.4%

Net income $52.7 $46.1 14.3%

Adjusted net income (1) $61.2 $51.6 18.6%

Earnings per common share, diluted$0.80 $0.68 17.6%

Adjusted earnings per common share, diluted(1) $0.93 $0.76 22.4%

(1) Adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per common share (EPS), diluted are non-GAAP measures. See "Non-GAAP Measures" and "Reconciliations of GAAP to Non-GAAP Financial Measures" below for reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures.

Thirteen Weeks EndedChange

Balance Sheet ($ in millions) May 2, 2026May 3, 2025%

Cash and cash equivalents$337.8 $285.1 18.5%

Merchandise inventories, net(1) $1,654.4 $1,560.0 6.1%

Long-term debt, net$480.3 $482.2 (0.4)%

(1) As of May 2, 2026 inventory per store was down 6.8% in units and down 0.8% in dollars.

1

Thirteen Weeks EndedChange

Capital Allocation ($ in millions) May 2, 2026May 3, 2025%

Share repurchases (1) $99.3 $99.9 (0.6)%

Dividends paid$9.6 $8.7 10.3 %

(1) Includes excise tax fees of $0.8 million and $0.9 million for the thirteen weeks ended May 2, 2026 and May 3, 2025, respectively.

Subsequent to the end of the first quarter, Academy announced that its Board of Directors on June 4, 2026 declared a quarterly cash dividend with respect to the quarter ended May 2, 2026, of $0.15 per share of common stock. The dividend is payable on July 16, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on June 18, 2026.

New Store Openings

Academy opened two new stores during the first quarter, bringing its total to 324 locations. The Company plans to open three stores during the second quarter, with the remaining 15-20 to be opened in the second half of fiscal 2026.

Academy Store Footprint Update

Time Frame Total stores open at beginning of the periodNumber of stores opened during the periodNumber of stores closed during the periodTotal stores open at end of period

1st Quarter 2025 2985—303

FY 2025

29824—322

1st Quarter 2026 3222—324

Time Frame

Total gross square feet open at beginning of the period(1)

Gross square feet for stores opened during the period(1) Gross square feet for stores closed during the period Total gross square feet at the end of the period(1)

1st Quarter 202520,60427520,879

FY 2025

20,6041,321—21,925

1st Quarter 2026 21,925112—22,037

(1) Figures in thousands

2026 Outlook

“The first quarter got off to a good start, and we delivered a 6.7% increase in sales, a 14.2% increase in free cash flow, a 14.3% increase in net income, and a 17.6% increase in GAAP EPS,” said Carl Ford, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. “We remain prudent about the macroenvironment and the updated fiscal 2026 guidance range reflects our belief that the consumer will remain under pressure for the duration of 2026. We're confident that our strategies will allow us to serve this consumer and deliver value to shareholders.”

Academy is providing the following updated guidance for fiscal 2026 (i.e., year ending January 30, 2027), as compared to the original guidance given on March 17, 2026. This guidance takes into account various factors, both internal and external, such as the expected benefits of the Company's growth initiatives, current consumer demand, the competitive environment, and potential impacts from inflation and other economic risks; actual results may differ materially.

2

Original Fiscal 2026 Guidance Updated Fiscal 2026 Guidance change (at midpoint

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K BUY

Mar 17, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+3.03%

$58.11

Act: +1.70%

5D

+4.59%

$59.00

20D

+4.83%

$59.13

Price: $56.41 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001817358-26-000026

aso-202603170001817358FALSE00018173582026-03-172026-03-17

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of report (Date of earliest event reported): March 17, 2026

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Delaware 001-39589 85-1800912

(State or other jurisdiction of (Commission (I.R.S. Employer

incorporation) File No.) Identification No.)

1800 North Mason Road Katy, Texas 77449

(Address of principal executive offices, including Zip Code)

(281) 646-5200

(Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)

Not Applicable

(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions: ☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: Title of each classTrading Symbol(s)Name of each exchange on which registered Common Stock, $0.01 par value per shareASOThe Nasdaq Stock Market LLC

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging Growth Company ☐

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02    Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On March 17, 2026, Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the fiscal year ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein.

The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including exhibits, is being furnished to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) pursuant to Item 2.02 of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any of the Company’s filings with the SEC under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.

Item 7.01    Regulation FD Disclosure.

On March 17, 2026, the Company posted the Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Presentation to its website at investors.academy.com. A copy of the presentation is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2.

The information contained under this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.

Item 9.01    Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d) Exhibits.

See the Exhibit Index immediately preceding the signature page hereto, which is incorporated herein by reference.

Exhibit No.Description of Exhibit 99.1 Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. Press Release, dated March 17, 2026.

99.2 Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Presentation, dated March 17, 2026.

104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document).

Signatures

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC.

Date: March 17, 2026 By:/s/Brandy Treadway Name:Brandy Treadway Title:Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary

2025
Q3

Q3 2025 Earnings

8-K BUY

Dec 9, 2025 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+2.97%

$54.64

Act: +3.64%

5D

+4.94%

$55.69

Act: +1.13%

20D

+4.58%

$55.50

Act: +7.27%

Price: $53.07 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001817358-25-000189

aso-202512090001817358FALSE00018173582025-12-092025-12-09

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of report (Date of earliest event reported): December 9, 2025

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Delaware 001-39589 85-1800912

(State or other jurisdiction of (Commission (I.R.S. Employer

incorporation) File No.) Identification No.)

1800 North Mason Road Katy, Texas 77449

(Address of principal executive offices, including Zip Code)

(281) 646-5200

(Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)

Not Applicable

(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions: ☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: Title of each classTrading Symbol(s)Name of each exchange on which registered Common Stock, $0.01 par value per shareASOThe Nasdaq Stock Market LLC

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging Growth Company ☐

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02    Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On December 9, 2025, Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended November 1, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein.

The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including exhibits, is being furnished to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) pursuant to Item 2.02 of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any of the Company’s filings with the SEC under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.

Item 7.01    Regulation FD Disclosure.

On December 9, 2025, the Company posted the Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Presentation to its website at investors.academy.com. A copy of the presentation is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2.

The information contained under this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.

Item 9.01    Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d) Exhibits.

Exhibit No.Description of Exhibit 99.1 Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. Press Release, dated December 9, 2025.

99.2 Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Presentation, dated December 9, 2025.

104Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document).

Signatures

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC.

Date: December 9, 2025 By:/s/Brandy Treadway Name:Brandy Treadway Title:Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary

About Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc. (ASO) Earnings

This page provides Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc. (ASO) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on ASO's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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