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AI Earnings Predictions for Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+3.06%

$40.34

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+7.17%

$41.95

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+9.06%

$42.69

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $39.14 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q2 2026 BUY +3.06% +7.17% +9.06% 100.0% +2.04%
Q1 2026 BUY +3.32% +7.90% +10.11% 100.0% +0.60%
Q4 2025 BUY +3.40% +7.88% +11.29% 100.0% +8.02%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Jul 23, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+3.06%

$40.34

Act: +0.79%

5D

+7.17%

$41.95

Act: +2.04%

20D

+9.06%

$42.69

Price: $39.14 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0000717538-26-000110

EX-99.1

2 ex99-earningsq22026.htm

EX-99.1

Document

250 Glen Street

Glens Falls, NY 12801

NASDAQ® Symbol: “AROW“

Website: arrowfinancial.com

Media Contact: Rachael Murray

P: (518) 742-6505

E: rachael.murray@arrowbank.com

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Arrow Reports 2nd Quarter Net Income of $11.0 Million, or $0.66 per Share, and Declares 3rd Quarter Dividend of $0.30 per Share

GLENS FALLS, N.Y. (July 23, 2026) – Arrow Financial Corporation (NasdaqGS® – AROW) ("Arrow" or the "Company") announced financial results for the three-month period ended June 30, 2026. Reported net income for the second quarter of 2026 was $11.0 million and fully diluted earnings per share ("EPS") was $0.66, versus net income of $13.5 million and EPS of $0.82 for the first quarter of 2026.

The Board of Directors of Arrow declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share; payable August 25, 2026 to shareholders of record as of August 11, 2026.

This quarter's results include approximately $1.0 million ($0.05 per share) of merger-related expenses related to the July 1, 2026 acquisition of Adirondack Bancorp, Inc. and Adirondack Bank based in Utica, New York. Excluding the merger-related expenses, Arrow achieved EPS of $0.71 for the second quarter of 2026. The transaction added approximately $1.0 billion in assets and 19 new branch locations.

Second-quarter results were impacted by a specific reserve of $1.6 million ($0.08 per share) for an isolated commercial real estate credit due to a sudden personal and corporate bankruptcy declared in June 2026 (for more details on this credit, please refer to our Second Quarter Investor Presentation), as well as an elevated loan provision due to strong loan growth.

This earnings release and related commentary should be read in conjunction with the Company's July 23, 2026 Form 8-K and related Second Quarter 2026 Investor Presentation, which can also be found on Arrow's website: arrowfinancial.com/documents/investor-presentations.

Arrow President and CEO David S. DeMarco:

"The Arrow team delivered another quarter of strong operating results. While our results were negatively impacted by recognizing a reserve on one isolated commercial credit, the credit metrics of the loan portfolio remain strong with low charge-offs and low non-performing loan balances. The overall health and trajectory of the business continues to perform well. I am particularly excited about the return to significant loan growth and the closing of our acquisition of Adirondack Bank, which will provide us with increased growth opportunities. We look forward to expanding our market with this high-quality, low-cost deposit franchise, adding approximately $1.0 billion to our balance sheet. We expect the transaction to provide significant EPS accretion in 2027 and beyond. Arrow remains well-positioned to deliver shareholder value and execute on its strategic initiatives to build a premier banking franchise for its customers and the communities it serves."

1

Second-Quarter Highlights and Key Metrics

•Net Income of $11.0 million (EPS of $0.66; or $0.71 adjusted for merger-related expenses "MRE"1)

•Insurance revenue 1H26 versus 1H25 up 12.6%

•Wealth management revenue 1H26 versus 1H25 up 9.9%

•Loan growth of $57.6 million (6.7% annualized)

•Annualized charge-offs of 8bps and non-performing loans of 24bps

•Moved $3.8 million loan to non-performing (11bps) due to bankruptcy and recorded $1.6 million specific reserve ($0.08 per share)

•Efficiency ratio of 62.02%; 59.83% excluding MRE1

•Net Interest Income of $35.9 million

•Net Interest Margin of 3.42% (3.43% fully taxable equivalent ("FTE")2), versus 3.47% (3.48% FTE2) in the prior quarter

•Return on Average Assets (ROA) of 0.99%; 1.06% adjusted for MRE1

•Cost of retail deposits3 decreased to 1.61%

Income Statement

•Net Income: Net income for the second quarter of 2026 was $11.0 million, decreasing from $13.5 million in the first quarter of 2026.

◦Compared to the prior quarter, net income decreased primarily due to an increase in the provision for credit losses of $2.3 million, including $1.6 million related to a specific reserve for a commercial loan where the borrower and guarantors entered into bankruptcy during the quarter. Net income was also impacted by a decrease in non-interest income of $0.4 million, an increase in MRE of $0.2 million and lower net interest income of $0.2 million. The decreases were partially offset by lower income tax expenses of $0.9 million.

•Net Interest Income: Net interest income for the second quarter of 2026 was $35.9 million, decreasing 0.6% from the first quarter of 2026.

◦Total interest and dividend income was $53.6 million for the second quarter of 2026, a decrease from $53.8 million in the first quarter of 2026. The decrease was attributable to lower average earning assets throughout the quarter as well as the increase in non-performing loans. Interest expense for the second quarter of 2026 was $17.7 million, consistent wit

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Apr 30, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+3.32%

$38.07

Act: +0.73%

5D

+7.90%

$39.76

Act: +0.60%

20D

+10.11%

$40.58

Act: -0.38%

Price: $36.85 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0000717538-26-000050

EX-99.1

2 ex99-earningsq12026.htm

EX-99.1

Document

250 Glen Street

Glens Falls, NY 12801

NASDAQ® Symbol: “AROW“

Website: arrowfinancial.com

Media Contact: Rachael Murray

P: (518) 742-6505

E: rachael.murray@arrowbank.com

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Arrow Reports 1st Quarter Net Income of $13.5 Million, or $0.82 per Share, and Declares 2nd Quarter Dividend of $0.30 per Share

GLENS FALLS, N.Y. (April 30, 2026) – Arrow Financial Corporation (NasdaqGS® – AROW) ("Arrow" or the "Company") announced financial results for the three-month period ended March 31, 2026. Reported net income for the first quarter of 2026 was $13.5 million and fully diluted earnings per share ("EPS") was $0.82, versus net income of $14.0 million and EPS of $0.85 for the fourth quarter of 2025.

The Board of Directors of Arrow declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share; payable May 26, 2026 to shareholders of record as of May 12, 2026.

This quarter's results include approximately $790 thousand ($0.03 per share) of non-core merger expenses related to the announced acquisition of Adirondack Bancorp, Inc. based in Utica, New York. Excluding the merger expenses, Arrow achieved record operating results of $0.85 for the first quarter of 2026. Pending regulatory approvals, the transaction is expected to close early in the third quarter of 2026 and will add approximately $950 million in assets and 19 new branch locations.

This Earnings Release and related commentary should be read in conjunction with the Company's April 30, 2026 Form 8-K and related First Quarter 2026 Investor Presentation, which can also be found on Arrow's website: arrowfinancial.com/documents/investor-presentations.

Arrow President and CEO David S. DeMarco:

"As we celebrate our 175th anniversary, building on the strong year-end momentum, the Arrow team delivered exceptional financial results for the first quarter of 2026. We achieved strong net interest margin expansion as well as a return on average assets close to 1.30% on an operating basis. Credit performance was even better with non-performing loans dipping to 13 basis points. During the first quarter, we also announced the acquisition of Adirondack Bank, which is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026. We look forward to expanding our market with this high-quality, low-cost deposit franchise, adding approximately $950 million to our balance sheet. We expect the transaction to provide significant EPS accretion in 2027 and beyond. Arrow is well positioned to continue to deliver strong results for its shareholders while continuing to execute on its strategic initiatives to build a premier banking franchise for its customers and the communities it serves."

1

First-Quarter Highlights and Key Metrics

•Net Income of $13.5 million (EPS of $0.82); $0.85 adjusted for merger-related expenses ("MRE")1

•Efficiency ratio of 59.89%; 58.13% excluding MRE1

•Net Interest Income of $36.1 million

•Net Interest Margin improved to 3.47% (3.48% FTE2), from 3.24% (3.25% FTE) in the prior quarter

•Return on Average Assets (ROA) of 1.23%; 1.29% adjusted for MRE1

•Strong credit metrics: annualized charge-offs of 10bps and non-performing loans of 13bps

•Loan-to-Deposit ratio of 85.7%

•Cost of retail deposits3 decreased by 11bps to 1.62% from the prior quarter

Income Statement

•Net Income: Net income for the first quarter of 2026 was $13.5 million, decreasing from $14.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.

◦Compared to the prior quarter, net income decreased due to an increase in income tax expense of $1.1 million and an increase in non-interest expense of $1.1 million offset by an increase in net interest income of $1.0 million and an increase in non-interest income of $0.4 million.

•Net Interest Income: Net interest income for the first quarter of 2026 was $36.1 million, increasing 2.8% from the fourth quarter of 2025.

◦Total interest and dividend income was $53.8 million for the first quarter of 2026, a decrease from $54.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. Interest expense for the first quarter of 2026 was $17.7 million, a decrease from $19.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.

•Net Interest Margin: Net interest margin, on an FTE basis, for the first quarter of 2026 increased to 3.48%, compared to 3.25% for the fourth quarter of 2025. The increase in net interest margin compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 was primarily the result of continued yield expansion on earning assets combined with the reduced cost of interest-bearing liabilities.

Three Months Ended

(Dollars in Thousands)

March 31, 2026December 31, 2025March 31, 2025

Interest and Dividend Income$53,794 $54,610 $50,366

Interest Expense17,664 19,467 19,009

Net Interest Income36,130 35,143 31,357

Average Earning Assets(A) 4,222,574 4,302,305 4,143,939

Average Interest-Bearing Liabilities3,244,709 3,280,856 3,184,196

Average Yield on Earning Assets(A) 5.17 %5.04 %4.93 %

Average Cost of Interest-Bearing Liabilities2.21 2.35 2.42

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K BUY

Jan 29, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+3.40%

$34.25

Act: +2.64%

5D

+7.88%

$35.74

Act: +8.02%

20D

+11.29%

$36.86

Act: +0.74%

Price: $33.13 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0000717538-26-000007

arow-202601280000717538FALSE00007175382026-01-282026-01-28

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of The Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report: January 28, 2026 (Date of earliest event reported)

ARROW FINANCIAL CORPORATION

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

New York0-1250722-2448962 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)(Commission File Number)(IRS Employer Identification No.)

250 Glen StreetGlens FallsNew York12801 (Address of principal executive offices)(Zip Code)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code:518 745-1000

(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions: ☐Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of Each ClassTrading SymbolName of each exchange on which registered Common Stock, Par Value $1.00 per shareAROWNASDAQ Global Select Market

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act☐

Item 2.02.     Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, Arrow Financial Corporation (the "Company") issued a press release containing unaudited financial information and accompanying discussion for the year-to-date period ended December 31, 2025.  A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report on Form 8-K.

Item 5.02(b). Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Director Miller to Retire. On January 28, 2026, Elizabeth A. Miller notified the Board of Directors of Arrow Financial Corporation (the "Company") that she will retire from the Board after serving out the rest of her term which ends at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Ms. Miller has served as a Director of the Company since 2017. We thank her for her many years of service to the Company and wish her the best.

Item 7.01.     Regulation FD Disclosure. On January 29, 2026, the Company made available certain presentation material (the "Fourth Quarter 2025 Investor Presentation"), which includes among other things, a review of financial results and trends through the period ended December 31, 2025. The furnished Fourth Quarter 2025 Investor Presentation should be read in conjunction with our Earnings Release for the quarter ended December 31, 2025.

A copy of the presentation material is included as Exhibit 99.2 to this current report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.

The information furnished under this Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or subject to the liabilities of that section. The information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission made by the Company, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.

Item 8.01.     Other Events. On January 28, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Arrow Financial Corporation (the “Company”) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share payable February 25, 2026 to shareholders of record on February 11, 2026.

A copy of the press release announcing the quarterly cash dividend is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report on Form 8-K.

Item 9.01.    Financial Statements and Exhibits. Exhibit No. Description Exhibit 99.1 Arrow Financial Corporation Earnings Press Release dated January 29, 2026 Exhibit 99.2 Arrow Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter 2025 Investor Presentation Exhibit 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

ARROW FINANCIAL CORPORATION

Registrant

Date:January 29, 2026 /s/ Penko Ivanov P

About Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) Earnings

This page provides Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on AROW's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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