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AI Earnings Predictions for Alliance Resource Partners L.P. (ARLP)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-0.10%

$25.61

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-5.00%

$24.35

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-4.33%

$24.52

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $25.63 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q2 2026 SELL -0.10% -5.00% -4.33% 100.0% +1.91%
Q1 2026 BUY +0.62% +4.14% -0.31% 100.0% +2.95%
Q4 2025 SELL -0.25% -5.43% -5.91% 100.0% -1.09%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Jul 27, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-0.10%

$25.61

Act: +1.09%

5D

-5.00%

$24.35

Act: +1.91%

20D

-4.33%

$24.52

Price: $25.63 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001104659-26-086855

EX-99.1

2 arlp-20260727xex99d1.htm

EX-99.1

Exhibit 99.1

PRESS RELEASE

ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS, L.P.

Reports Second Quarter Financial and Operating Results; Declares Quarterly Cash Distribution of $0.60 Per Unit; and Updates 2026 Guidance

2026 Quarter Highlights

●Total revenue of $551.6 million, net income of $79.6 million, and Adjusted EBITDA of $185.7 million, up year-over-year 0.7%, 33.9% and 14.7%, respectively

●Record oil & gas royalty revenues of $46.3 million, up 30.5% year-over-year

●Secured 21.2 million additional committed and priced sales tons over the 2026 – 2031 time period

●Distributable Cash Flow of $108.2 million and Distribution Coverage Ratio of 1.39x both improved by 39.0% sequentially

●Declares quarterly cash distribution of $0.60 per unit, or $2.40 per unit annualized

●On July 1, 2026, completed our $206.2 million acquisition of oil & gas mineral interests, adding 48,500 net royalty acres to the Oil & Gas Royalties segment

TULSA, OKLAHOMA, July 27, 2026 — Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ: ARLP) (“we,” “us,” “our,” “ARLP” or the “Partnership”) today reported financial and operating results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 (the “2026 Quarter” and “2026 Period,” respectively). This release includes comparisons of results to the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 (the “2025 Quarter” and “2025 Period,” respectively) and to the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Sequential Quarter”). All references in the text of this release to “net income” refer to “net income attributable to ARLP.” For a definition of Distributable Cash Flow, Distribution Coverage Ratio, EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and Segment Adjusted EBITDA Expense and related reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures, please see the end of this release.

For the 2026 Quarter, net income increased 33.9% to $79.6 million, or $0.61 per basic and diluted limited partner unit, compared to $59.4 million, or $0.46 per basic and diluted limited partner unit for the 2025 Quarter primarily as a result of higher total revenues and equity method investment income, and the impact of an impairment loss taken in the 2025 Quarter on a preferred equity investment. Total revenues increased to $551.6 million in the 2026 Quarter compared to $547.5 million for the 2025 Quarter as a result of record oil & gas royalty revenues, increased coal sales volumes and higher other revenues, partially offset by lower coal sales price per ton. Adjusted EBITDA increased 14.7% to $185.7 million in the 2026 Quarter compared to $161.9 million in the 2025 Quarter.

Page 1

Compared to the Sequential Quarter, total revenues increased 6.9% due to higher coal sales volumes, which rose 8.9% to 8.6 million tons sold in the 2026 Quarter compared to 7.9 million tons sold in the Sequential Quarter, partially offset by 2.7% lower coal sales prices per ton. Net income increased by $70.5 million compared to the Sequential Quarter driven by higher revenues, increased investment income, a smaller decline in the fair value of our digital assets, and a $37.8 million non-cash asset impairment charge in the Sequential Quarter at our Mettiki mine. Adjusted EBITDA for the 2026 Quarter increased by 19.8% compared to the Sequential Quarter.

Total revenues decreased slightly to $1.07 billion for the 2026 Period compared to $1.09 billion for the 2025 Period primarily due to lower coal sales, partially offset by record oil & gas royalty revenues. Net income for the 2026 Period was $88.7 million, or $0.68 per basic and diluted limited partner unit, compared to $133.4 million, or $1.03 per basic and diluted limited partner unit, for the 2025 Period. Adjusted EBITDA for the 2026 Period increased 5.8% to $340.7 million compared to $321.9 million for the 2025 Period.

CEO Commentary

"Our coal operations performed well during the quarter, highlighted by strong productivity and disciplined cost control," said Joseph W. Craft III, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. "River View and Tunnel Ridge generated superior operating results, driving Segment Adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold lower by 6.3% year-over-year and 6.6% sequentially. With Hamilton recently returning to longwall production and no additional longwall moves expected until 2027, we believe our operations are well-positioned to meaningfully increase production and cash flow generation during the second half of this year."

Mr. Craft added, "Our Oil & Gas Royalties segment delivered record quarterly revenue of $46.3 million and Segment Adjusted EBITDA of $38.0 million, driven by stronger realized commodity pricing. Subsequent to quarter end, we successfully closed the $206.2 million AllDale III & IV acquisition. With this transaction, our cumulative investment in oil & gas royalties now exceeds $1.0 billion, marking a significant milestone in the evolution of ARLP's diversified natural resource platform."

Mr. Craft conti

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Apr 27, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+0.62%

$25.71

Act: +3.62%

5D

+4.14%

$26.60

Act: +2.95%

20D

-0.31%

$25.47

Act: -2.10%

Price: $25.55 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001104659-26-049042

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2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Feb 2, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-0.25%

$24.63

Act: +1.26%

5D

-5.43%

$23.35

Act: -1.09%

20D

-5.91%

$23.23

Act: +9.88%

Price: $24.69 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001104659-26-008972

ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP_February 2, 2026 0001086600falseALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP00010866002026-02-022026-02-02 ​ ​

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, DC 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT PURSUANT TO

SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE

SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

​ Date of report (Date of earliest event reported): February 2, 2026 ​

ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS, L.P.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) ​ ​

Delaware ​ ​ ​ 73-1564280

(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) ​ Commission File No.: 0-26823 ​ (IRS Employer Identification No.)

​ 1717 South Boulder Avenue, Suite 400, Tulsa, Oklahoma 74119 (Address of principal executive offices and zip code) (918) 295-7600 (Registrant's telephone number, including area code) ​ Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligations of the registrant under any of the following provisions: ​ ☐    Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ​ ☐    Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ​ ☐    Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ​ ☐    Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)) ​ Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: ​

Title of each class Trading Symbol(s) Name of each exchange on which registered

Common units representing limited partner interests

ARLP

NASDAQ Global Select Market

​ Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). ​ Emerging growth company ☐ ​ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐ ​ ​ ​

ITEM 2.02.

RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION.

On February 2, 2026, Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (the "Partnership") announced, via press release, its quarterly and annual earnings and operating results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025.  A copy of the Partnership's press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished in this Item 2.02 including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except to the extent specifically referenced in any such filings.

ITEM 9.01. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND EXHIBITS.

​ (d) Exhibits ​

Exhibit Number

Description

​ 99.1 ​ Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. press release dated February 2, 2026. ​

​ 104 ​ Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as inline XBRL).

​ ​

2

SIGNATURES

​ Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. ​ ​

​ Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. ​

​ ​ ​

​ ​ ​

By: Alliance Resource Management GP, LLC, ​

​ its general partner ​

​ ​ ​

​ ​ ​

By: /s/ Cary P. Marshall ​

​ Cary P. Marshall ​

​ Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer ​

​ ​

​ ​ ​

Date: February 2, 2026 ​ ​ ​

3

About Alliance Resource Partners L.P. (ARLP) Earnings

This page provides Alliance Resource Partners L.P. (ARLP) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on ARLP's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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