Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns
1-Day Prediction
-2.26%
$6.57
0% positive prob.
5-Day Prediction
-3.63%
$6.48
0% positive prob.
20-Day Prediction
-2.68%
$6.54
0% positive prob.
| Quarter | Signal | 1D Return | 5D Return | 20D Return | Confidence | Actual 5D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | SELL | -2.26% | -3.63% | -2.68% | 100.0% | Pending |
| Q1 2026 | BUY | +1.30% | +2.53% | +3.27% | 100.0% | +1.96% |
| Q4 2025 | SELL | -2.83% | -4.79% | -2.43% | 100.0% | -1.31% |
SEC 8-K filings with transcript text
Aug 11, 2026 · 100% conf.
1D
-2.26%
$6.57
Act: +2.68%
5D
-3.63%
$6.48
20D
-2.68%
$6.54
2 d155213dex991.htm
Exhibit 99.1
Hilary Ginsberg
Investor Relations
(212) 822-0767
New York, NY, August 10, 2026 – Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (the “Company” or “ARI”) (NYSE: ARI) today reported results for the quarter and six months ended June 30, 2026.
Net income available to common stockholders per diluted share of common stock was $0.11 for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Distributable Earnings (a non-GAAP financial measure defined below), and Distributable Earnings prior to net realized loss on investments and loss on extinguishment of debt per diluted share of common stock was ($2.62) and $0.15 for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, respectively.
ARI issued a detailed presentation of the Company’s quarter ended June 30, 2026 results, which can be viewed at www.apollocref.com.
Distributable Earnings
“Distributable Earnings,” a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as net income available to common stockholders, computed in accordance with GAAP, adjusted for (i) equity-based compensation expense (a portion of which may become cash-based upon final vesting and settlement of awards should the holder elect net share settlement to satisfy income tax withholding), (ii) any unrealized gains or losses or other non-cash items (including depreciation and amortization related to real estate owned) included in net income available to common stockholders, (iii) unrealized income from unconsolidated joint ventures, (iv) foreign currency gains (losses), other than (a) realized gains/(losses) related to interest income, and (b) forward point gains/(losses) realized on the Company’s foreign currency hedges, and (v) provision for current expected credit losses.
As a REIT, U.S. federal income tax law generally requires the Company to distribute annually at least 90% of its REIT taxable income, without regard to the deduction for dividends paid and excluding net capital gains, and that the Company pay tax at regular corporate rates to the extent that it annually distributes less than 100% of its net taxable income. Given these requirements and the Company’s belief that dividends are generally one of the principal reasons shareholders invest in a REIT, the Company generally intends over time to pay dividends to its stockholders in an amount equal to its net taxable income, if and to the extent authorized by the Company’s board of directors. Distributable Earnings is a key factor considered by the Company’s board of directors in setting the dividend and as such the Company believes Distributable Earnings is useful to investors.
The Company believes it is useful to its investors to also present Distributable Earnings prior to realized loss on investments and realized loss on extinguishment of debt, in applicable periods, to reflect its operating results because (i) the Company’s operating results are primarily comprised of earning interest income on its investments net of borrowing and administrative costs, which comprise the Company’s ongoing operations and (ii) it has been a useful factor related to the Company’s dividend per share because it is one of the considerations when a dividend is determined. The Company believes that its investors use Distributable Earnings and Distributable Earnings prior to realized loss on investments and realized loss on extinguishment of debt or a comparable supplemental performance measure, to evaluate and compare the performance of the Company and its peers.
During the six months ended June 30, 2026, the Company recorded net realized losses on investments and extinguishment of debt in the consolidated statement of operations in connection with the sale of the Company’s commercial real estate loan portfolio (other than loans that were repaid prior to closing and one loan with a principal balance of $46 million which was repaid after closing) to Athene Holding Ltd., and a realized loss on the discounted repayment of a commercial mortgage loan.
A significant limitation associated with Distributable Earnings as a measure of the Company’s financial performance over any period is that it excludes unrealized gains (losses) from investments. In addition, the Company’s presentation of Distributable Earnings may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies, that use different calculations. As a result, Distributable Earnings should not be considered as a substitute for the Company’s GAAP net income as a measure of its financial performance or any measure of its liquidity under GAAP. Distributable Earnings are reduced for realized losses on loans which include losses that management believes are near certain to be realized.
A reconciliation of Distributable Earnings to GAAP net income (loss) available to common stockholders is included in the detailed presentation of the Company’s quarter ended June 30, 2026 results, which can be viewe
Apr 29, 2026 · 100% conf.
1D
+1.30%
$10.88
Act: +1.86%
5D
+2.53%
$11.01
Act: +1.96%
20D
+3.27%
$11.09
Act: +2.33%
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Reference ID: 0.c706d217.1784382628.d64929b7
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Feb 11, 2026 · 100% conf.
1D
-2.83%
$10.38
Act: -1.12%
5D
-4.79%
$10.17
Act: -1.31%
20D
-2.43%
$10.42
Act: -3.18%
8-K
false 0001467760 0001467760 2026-02-10 2026-02-10
Washington, D.C. 20549
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of The Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): February 10, 2026
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
Maryland
001-34452
27-0467113
(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)
(Commission File Number)
(IRS Employer Identification No.)
c/o Apollo Global Management, Inc.
9 West 57th Street, 42nd Floor
New York, New York
10019
(Address of principal executive offices)
(Zip Code) Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (212) 515-3200 n/a (Former name or former address, if changed since last report.)
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):
☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))
☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))
Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:
Title of each class
Trading Symbol(s)
Name of each exchange on which registered
Common Stock, $0.01 par value
ARI
New York Stock Exchange Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging Growth Company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐
Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition.
On February 10, 2026, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a summary press release and a detailed presentation announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the summary press release and the detailed presentation are attached as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, hereto and incorporated herein by reference. The information in Item 2.02 of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless it is specifically incorporated by reference therein.
Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.
(d) Exhibits.
Exhibit No.
Description
99.1
Summary press release dated February 10, 2026
99.2
Financial results presentation dated February 10, 2026
104
Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
By:
/s/ Stuart A. Rothstein
Name:
Stuart A. Rothstein
Title:
President and Chief Executive Officer
Date: February 10, 2026
This page provides Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.
Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on ARI's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.