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AI Earnings Predictions for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-2.83%

$10.38

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-4.79%

$10.17

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-2.43%

$10.42

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $10.68 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q4 2025

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

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2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Feb 11, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-2.83%

$10.38

5D

-4.79%

$10.17

20D

-2.43%

$10.42

Price: $10.68 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001193125-26-045193

8-K

false 0001467760 0001467760 2026-02-10 2026-02-10

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of The Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): February 10, 2026

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Maryland

001-34452

27-0467113

(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)

(Commission File Number)

(IRS Employer Identification No.)

c/o Apollo Global Management, Inc.

9 West 57th Street, 42nd Floor

New York, New York

10019

(Address of principal executive offices)

(Zip Code) Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (212) 515-3200 n/a (Former name or former address, if changed since last report.)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class

Trading Symbol(s)

Name of each exchange on which registered

Common Stock, $0.01 par value

ARI

New York Stock Exchange Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging Growth Company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On February 10, 2026, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a summary press release and a detailed presentation announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the summary press release and the detailed presentation are attached as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, hereto and incorporated herein by reference. The information in Item 2.02 of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless it is specifically incorporated by reference therein.

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d) Exhibits.

Exhibit No.

Description

99.1

Summary press release dated February 10, 2026

99.2

Financial results presentation dated February 10, 2026

104

Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.

By:

/s/ Stuart A. Rothstein

Name:

Stuart A. Rothstein

Title:

President and Chief Executive Officer

Date: February 10, 2026

2025
Q3

Q3 2025 Earnings

8-K

Oct 31, 2025

0001193125-25-258995

8-K

false 0001467760 0001467760 2025-10-30 2025-10-30

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of The Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): October 30, 2025

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Maryland

001-34452

27-0467113

(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)

(Commission File Number)

(IRS Employer Identification No.)

c/o Apollo Global Management, Inc.

9 West 57th Street, 42nd Floor

New York, New York

10019

(Address of principal executive offices)

(Zip Code) Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (212) 515-3200 n/a (Former name or former address, if changed since last report.)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class

Trading Symbol(s)

Name of each exchange on which registered

Common Stock, $0.01 par value

ARI

New York Stock Exchange Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging Growth Company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On October 30, 2025, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a summary press release and a detailed presentation announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the summary press release and the detailed presentation are attached as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, hereto and incorporated herein by reference. The information in Item 2.02 of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless it is specifically incorporated by reference therein.

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d) Exhibits.

Exhibit No.

Description

99.1

Summary press release dated October 30, 2025

99.2

Financial results presentation dated October 30, 2025

104

Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.

By:

/s/ Stuart A. Rothstein

Name:

Stuart A. Rothstein

Title:

President and Chief Executive Officer

Date: October 30, 2025

2025
Q2

Q2 2025 Earnings

8-K

Jul 30, 2025

0001193125-25-168225

8-K

false 0001467760 0001467760 2025-07-29 2025-07-29

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of The Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): July 29, 2025

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Maryland

001-34452

27-0467113

(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)

(Commission File Number)

(IRS Employer Identification No.)

c/o Apollo Global Management, Inc. 9 West 57th Street, 42nd Floor New York, New York

10019

(Address of principal executive offices)

(Zip Code) Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (212) 515-3200 n/a (Former name or former address, if changed since last report.)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class

Trading Symbol(s)

Name of each exchange on which registered

Common Stock, $0.01 par value

ARI

New York Stock Exchange Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging Growth Company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On July 29, 2025, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a summary press release and a detailed presentation announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the summary press release and the detailed presentation are attached as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, hereto and incorporated herein by reference. The information in Item 2.02 of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless it is specifically incorporated by reference therein.

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d) Exhibits.

Exhibit No.

Description

99.1

Summary press release dated July 29, 2025

99.2

Financial results presentation dated July 29, 2025

104

Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.

By:

/s/ Stuart A. Rothstein

Name: Stuart A. Rothstein

Title: President and Chief Executive Officer

Date: July 29, 2025

About Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) Earnings

This page provides Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on ARI's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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