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AI Earnings Predictions for Alarm.com Holdings Inc. (ALRM)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+3.89%

$58.48

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+4.99%

$59.10

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+4.05%

$58.57

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $56.29 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q2 2026 BUY +3.89% +4.99% +4.05% 100.0% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL -7.30% -7.53% -15.03% 100.0% -9.89%
Q4 2025 SELL -7.30% -7.53% -15.03% 100.0% +7.72%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Aug 6, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+3.89%

$58.48

Act: +2.20%

5D

+4.99%

$59.10

20D

+4.05%

$58.57

Price: $56.29 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001459200-26-000014

EX-99.1

2 ex991earningsreleasejune30.htm

EXHIBIT 99.1 PRESS RELEASE DATED AUGUST 6, 2026

Document

Exhibit 99.1

Alarm.com Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results

-- SaaS and license revenue increased 11.1% to $188.8 million --

-- GAAP net income was $24.2 million --

-- Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was $57.7 million --

TYSONS, VA., August 6, 2026 -- Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: ALRM), the leading platform for intelligently connected properties, today reported financial results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2026. Alarm.com also provided its financial outlook for SaaS and license revenue for the third quarter of 2026 and increased its guidance for the full year of 2026.

Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results as Compared to Second Quarter 2025

•SaaS and license revenue increased 11.1% to $188.8 million, compared to $170.0 million.

•Total revenue increased 9.2% to $277.7 million, compared to $254.3 million.

•GAAP net income was $24.2 million, compared to $34.2 million.

•GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders was $24.2 million, or $0.48 per diluted share, compared to $34.6 million, or $0.63 per diluted share.

•Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA(*) was $57.7 million, compared to $49.9 million(^).

•Non-GAAP adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders(*) was $41.1 million, or $0.77 per diluted share, compared to $35.2 million(^), or $0.62 per diluted share(^).

Balance Sheet and Cash Flow

•Total cash and cash equivalents was $479.4 million as of June 30, 2026, compared to $960.6 million as of December 31, 2025. The decrease in cash and cash equivalents was primarily due to the payment and full settlement of the $500.0 million aggregate principal amount of the 0% convertible senior notes on January 14, 2026.

•For the six months ended June 30, 2026, cash flows from operating activities was $92.5 million, compared to $46.8 million for the six months ended June 30, 2025. For the six months ended June 30, 2026, non-GAAP free cash flow(*) was $86.8 million, compared to $36.1 million for the six months ended June 30, 2025.

Recent Business Highlights

•Launched Commercial Fire Solution: Alarm.com launched its new Fire Communicator, extending the commercial platform into the commercial fire market. Compatible with most new and existing fire alarm control panels, the solution gives Alarm.com’s service provider partners a cost-effective path to modernize fire communications while consolidating account management, billing and support on the Alarm.com platform.

•EnergyHub Delivered Grid-Scale Flexibility During July Heat Wave: Over the July Fourth weekend, utilities across 31 states and Ontario, dispatched 304 demand response events through the EnergyHub platform. The events shifted 17.5 gigawatt-hours of load during periods of peak demand. EnergyHub's growing scale demonstrates the critical role that distributed energy resources play in helping utilities manage peak demand and support long-term grid reliability.

•Expanded CHeKT Remote Video Monitoring (RVM) Capabilities for Complex Commercial Environments: Alarm.com's subsidiary, CHeKT, introduced advanced system partitioning capabilities that enable multiple independent RVM partitions for larger and more complex commercial deployments.

Financial Outlook

Alarm.com is providing its outlook for SaaS and license revenue for the third quarter of 2026 and increasing its guidance for the full year of 2026 based upon current management expectations.

For the third quarter of 2026:

•SaaS and license revenue is expected to be in the range of $189.8 million to $190.0 million.

For the full year of 2026:

•SaaS and license revenue is now expected to be in the range of $754.0 million to $754.4 million, up $10.2 million from the midpoint of the full year of 2026 SaaS and license revenue guidance provided in February 2026.

•Total revenue is expected to be in the range of $1.0790 billion to $1.0894 billion, which includes anticipated hardware and other revenue in the range of $325.0 million to $335.0 million.

•Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA expectations are being increased to a range of $221.0 million to $223.0 million.

1

•Non-GAAP adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders is expected to be in the range of $156.0 million to $157.0 million, based on an estimated tax rate of 21.0%.

•Based on an expected 56.3 million weighted average diluted shares outstanding, non-GAAP adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders is expected to be $2.92 to $2.94 per diluted share.

The 2026 guidance provided above is forward-looking in nature. Actual results may differ materially. See the cautionary note regarding “Forward-Looking Statements” below. The guidance provided above is based on expectations as of the date of this press release and Alarm.com undertakes no obligation to update guidance after such date.

Conference Call and Webcast Information

Alarm.com will host a conference call to discuss its second quarter 2026 financial results and it

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

May 7, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-7.30%

$43.57

Act: +1.15%

5D

-7.53%

$43.46

Act: -9.89%

20D

-15.03%

$39.94

Act: -3.47%

Price: $47.00 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001459200-26-000008

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2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Feb 19, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-7.30%

$41.90

Act: +0.86%

5D

-7.53%

$41.80

Act: +7.72%

20D

-15.03%

$38.41

Price: $45.20 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001459200-26-000004

alrm-20260219false000145920000014592002026-02-192026-02-19

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): February 19, 2026

ALARM.COM HOLDINGS, INC.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Delaware 001-37461 26-4247032 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation) (Commission File Number) (IRS Employer Identification No.)

8281 Greensboro DriveSuite 100TysonsVirginia 22102

(Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (877) 389-4033

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligations of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

☐Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each classTrading SymbolName of each exchange on which registered Common Stock, $0.01 par value per shareALRMThe Nasdaq Stock Market LLC

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).

Emerging growth company ☐

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

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Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On February 19, 2026, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release (the "Press Release") announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Press Release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.

The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the Press Release attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is furnished under Item 2.02 and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any of the Company's filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d)Exhibits

Exhibit No.  Description 99.1 Press Release Dated February 19, 2026

104Cover Page Interactive Data File (the cover page XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

2

SIGNATURE

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

Date:February 19, 2026 By:/s/ Kevin Bradley

Kevin Bradley

Chief Financial Officer

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About Alarm.com Holdings Inc. (ALRM) Earnings

This page provides Alarm.com Holdings Inc. (ALRM) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on ALRM's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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