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AI Earnings Predictions for Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-0.91%

$44.01

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-3.56%

$42.83

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-0.78%

$44.06

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $44.41 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q2 2026 SELL -0.91% -3.56% -0.78% 100.0% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL -1.22% -3.60% +0.07% 100.0% -3.24%
Q4 2025 SELL -1.25% -4.07% +0.26% 100.0% -0.31%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Jul 21, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-0.91%

$44.01

Act: +0.54%

5D

-3.56%

$42.83

20D

-0.78%

$44.06

Price: $44.41 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001193125-26-309539

EX-99.1

2 d40046dex991.htm

EX-99.1

EX-99.1

Exhibit 99.1

News release: IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Ally Financial Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results

$1.18

11.0%

$537 million

$2.3 billion

GAAP EPS

RETURN ON COMMON EQUITY

PRE-TAX INCOME

GAAP TOTAL NET REVENUE

$1.21

11.8%

$527 million

$2.3 billion

ADJUSTED EPS1

CORE ROTCE1

CORE PRE-TAX INCOME1

ADJUSTED TOTAL NET REVENUE1

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

GAAP EPS of $1.18 was up 14% year over year | Adjusted EPS1 of $1.21 was up 22% year over year

GAAP Pre-tax income of $537 million was up 23% year over year | Core

pre-tax income1 of $527 million was up 26% year over year

Return on Common Equity of 11.0% was up ~20 bps year over year | Core ROTCE1 of 11.8% was up ~80 bps year over year

NIM ex. OID1 of 3.63% was up 11 bps quarter over quarter and up 18 bps year over year

Common equity tier 1 ratio of 10.1% was up ~20 bps year over year | Executed $148 million of share repurchases during the quarter

OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

$13.3 billion of consumer auto originations sourced from a record 4.6 million consumer auto applications

Estimated retail auto originated yield1 of 9.09% with 47% of volume within the highest credit quality tier

Retail auto net charge-offs of 157 bps were down 18 bps year over year

Insurance written premiums of $382 million were up 9% year over year

$144 billion of retail deposits | 92% FDIC insured | 87% core deposit funded

69 consecutive quarters of retail deposit customer growth, serving 3.6 million customers

Corporate Finance HFI portfolio of $13.7 billion with non-performing loans at less than 1% | ROE of 32%

CEO COMMENTS

“Our results through the first half of the year reflect the strength of our franchises and disciplined execution of our teammates,” said Chief Executive Officer, Michael Rhodes. “The actions we have taken to sharpen our focus, enhance our balance sheet, and invest in our core businesses are translating into improved earnings, expanding returns, and increasing confidence in our path forward.

Dealer Financial Services once again demonstrated the strength of our franchise. Our scale and market position drove record application volume supporting more than $13 billion in originations, up 21% year-over-year. Our underwriting approach remains disciplined and responsive to market conditions, enabling us to grow while maintaining attractive risk-adjusted returns. Insurance written premiums were up nearly 10% year-over-year as our team deepens relationships and expands our integrated dealer offering.

Corporate Finance continues to deliver, producing a 32% return on equity while maintaining exceptional credit quality. The portfolio’s resilience and growth reflect our prioritization of credit risk management and the long-standing relationships that have guided our success through cycles.

At Ally Bank, we continue to benefit from the ongoing shift toward digital-first banking. Our retail depositor base has grown for more than 17 consecutive years with industry leading retention rates reflecting the value our customers place in our unique proposition. Meanwhile, our $144 billion in retail deposits provide a durable source of funding that supports accretive growth across our franchises and reinforces our competitive position.

As we enter the second half of 2026, we are building on a position of strength. While the operating environment remains dynamic, our strategy is working, our team is aligned, and the strength of our core franchises provides the resilience and flexibility to perform across market cycles. Our earnings power and return profile continue to improve, and I am confident in our ability to deliver long-term value for shareholders.”

Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results

Increase / (Decrease) vs.

($ millions except per share data)

2Q 26

1Q 26

2Q 25

1Q 26

2Q 25

GAAP Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Common Shareholders

$ 367

$ 291

$ 324

26 %

13 %

Core Net Income Attributable to Common Shareholders1

$ 375

$ 346

$ 309

8 %

21 %

GAAP Earnings per Common Share (basic or diluted as applicable)

$ 1.18

$ 0.93

$ 1.04

27 %

14 %

Adjusted EPS1

$ 1.21

$ 1.11

$ 0.99

9 %

22 %

Return on GAAP Shareholders’ Equity

11.0 %

8.8 %

10.7 %

25 %

2 %

Core ROTCE1

11.8 %

11.1 %

11.0 %

7 %

7 %

GAAP Common Shareholders’ Equity per Share

$ 44.38

$ 43.22

$ 39.71

3 %

12 %

Adjusted Tangible Book Value per Share1

$ 42.12

$ 40.93

$ 37.30

3 %

13 %

GAAP Total Net Revenue

$ 2,286

$ 2,102

$ 2,082

9 %

10 %

Adjusted Total Net Revenue1

$ 2,276

$ 2,179

$ 2,064

4 %

10 %

1

The following are non-GAAP financial measures which Ally believes are

important to the reader of the Consolidated Financial Statements, but which are supplemental to and not a substitute for GAAP measures: Adjusted Earnings per Share (Adjusted EPS), Adjusted Total Net Revenue, Core Pre-Tax Income, Core Net Income Attributable to Common Shareholders, Core OID, Core Return o

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Apr 17, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-1.22%

$45.01

Act: +1.61%

5D

-3.60%

$43.92

Act: -3.24%

20D

+0.07%

$45.60

Act: -7.62%

Price: $45.56 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001193125-26-160281

EX-99.1

2 d117350dex991.htm

EX-99.1

EX-99.1

Exhibit 99.1

News release: IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Ally Financial Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results

$0.93

8.8%

$400 million

$2.1 billion

GAAP EPS

RETURN ON COMMON EQUITY

PRE-TAX INCOME

GAAP TOTAL NET REVENUE

$1.11

11.1%

$470 million

$2.2 billion

ADJUSTED

EPS1

CORE ROTCE1

CORE PRE-TAX INCOME1

ADJUSTED TOTAL NET REVENUE1

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

GAAP EPS of $0.93 | Adjusted EPS1 of $1.11 was up ~90% year over year

GAAP Pre-tax income of $400 million | Core pre-tax income1 of $470 million was up $223 million year over year

Return on Common Equity of 8.8% | Core ROTCE1 of 11.1% was up ~440 bps year over year

NIM ex. OID1 of 3.52% was up 1 bp quarter over quarter and up 17 bps year over year

Common equity tier 1 ratio of 10.1% was up ~60 bps year over year | Executed $147 million of share repurchases during the quarter

OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

$11.5 billion of consumer auto originations sourced from a record 4.4 million consumer auto applications

Estimated retail auto originated yield1 of 9.60% with 41% of volume within the highest credit quality tier

Retail auto net charge-offs of 197 bps, down 15 bps year over year

Insurance written premiums of $389 million were up $4 million year over year

$146 billion of retail deposits | 92% FDIC insured | 88% core deposit funded

68 consecutive quarters of retail deposit customer growth, serving 3.5 million customers

Corporate Finance HFI portfolio of $13.7 billion with no new non-performing loans during the quarter | ROE of 26%

CEO COMMENTS

“The first quarter marked a strong start to the year, reflecting the momentum we’ve established across our core franchises,” said Chief Executive Officer, Michael Rhodes. “Our results underscore the strength of our ‘Focused. Forward.’ strategy and the disciplined execution behind it. This approach is driving sustained value for our customers and shareholders.

In Dealer Financial Services, strong, mutually beneficial dealer relationships led to a record 4.4 million consumer applications. Robust application flow allowed us to remain selective while delivering originations of $11.5 billion, a 13% increase year over year despite lower industry sales. Within Insurance, we grew average inventory exposure 12% year over year, reflecting our all-in value proposition as we support our dealers across all aspects of their businesses.

Corporate Finance delivered another impressive quarter with a 26% ROE and balances growing to $13.7 billion. Our disciplined risk management approach has resulted in a high-quality portfolio consistently delivering across cycles, with criticized assets and non-accrual loans near historic lows.

At Ally Bank, our digital-first model continues to set us apart, delivering exceptional customer service and experiences. We ended the quarter with $146 billion in retail deposits from 3.5 million customers – marking a 68th consecutive quarter of customer growth. Our deposits base not only reinforces our position as the nation’s largest all-digital, direct bank, but provides durable, low-cost funding that fuels disciplined growth in our core lending franchises.

We entered 2026 with momentum, and our execution continues to build on it. ‘Focused. Forward.’ is delivering strong performance and positioning us to compete and win. Even in a dynamic environment, the opportunities ahead are compelling. With a clear strategy and a strong foundation in place, I am confident in our ability to deliver compelling long-term value for shareholders.”

First Quarter 2026 Financial Results

Increase / (Decrease) vs.

($ millions except per share data)

1Q 26

4Q 25

1Q 25

4Q 25

1Q 25

GAAP Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Common Shareholders

$ 291

$ 300

$ (253 )

(3 )%

215 %

Core Net Income Attributable to Common Shareholders1

$ 346

$ 341

$ 179

2 %

94 %

GAAP Earnings per Common Share (basic or diluted as applicable)

$ 0.93

$ 0.95

$ (0.82 )

(3 )%

214 %

Adjusted EPS1

$ 1.11

$ 1.09

$ 0.58

2 %

90 %

Return on GAAP Shareholders’ Equity

8.8 %

9.2 %

(8.6 )%

(5 )%

202 %

Core ROTCE1

11.1 %

11.1 %

6.7 %

(1 )%

66 %

GAAP Common Shareholders’ Equity per Share

$ 43.22

$ 42.70

$ 38.77

1 %

11 %

Adjusted Tangible Book Value per Share1

$ 40.93

$ 40.38

$ 35.95

1 %

14 %

GAAP Total Net Revenue

$ 2,102

$ 2,123

$ 1,541

(1 )%

36 %

Adjusted Total Net Revenue1

$ 2,179

$ 2,165

$ 2,065

1 %

6 %

1

The following are non-GAAP financial measures which Ally believes are

important to the reader of the Consolidated Financial Statements, but which are supplemental to and not a substitute for GAAP measures: Adjusted Earnings per Share (Adjusted EPS), Adjusted Total Net Revenue, Core Pre-Tax Income, Core Net Income Attributable to Common Shareholders, Core OID, Core Return on Tangible Common Equity (Core ROTCE), Estimated Retail Auto Originated Yield, Tangible Common Equity, Net Financing Revenue (excluding

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Jan 21, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-1.25%

$41.90

Act: -1.04%

5D

-4.07%

$40.70

Act: -0.31%

20D

+0.26%

$42.54

Act: -1.25%

Price: $42.43 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001193125-26-017242

8-K

false 0000040729 0000040729 2026-01-21 2026-01-21

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 January 21, 2026 (Date of report; date of earliest event reported) Commission file number: 1-3754

ALLY FINANCIAL INC.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Delaware

38-0572512

(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization)

(I.R.S. Employer Identification No.) Ally Detroit Center 500 Woodward Ave. Floor 10, Detroit, Michigan 48226 (Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code) (866) 710-4623 (Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class

Trading symbols

Name of each exchange on which registered

Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share

ALLY

NYSE

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02 Results of Operation and Financial Condition.

On January 21, 2026, Ally Financial Inc. issued a press release announcing preliminary operating results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. The press release is attached hereto and incorporated by reference as Exhibit 99.1. Charts furnished to securities analysts are attached hereto and incorporated by reference as Exhibit 99.2. In addition, supplemental financial data furnished to securities analysts is attached hereto and incorporated by reference as Exhibit 99.3.

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.

Exhibit No.

Description

99.1

Press Release, Dated January 21, 2026

99.2

Charts Furnished to Securities Analysts

99.3

Supplemental Financial Data Furnished to Securities Analysts

104

The cover page from this Current Report on Form 8-K, formatted in Inline XBRL

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

ALLY FINANCIAL INC.

(Registrant)

Dated: January 21, 2026

/s/ Austin T. McGrath

Austin T. McGrath

Vice President, Controller, and Chief Accounting Officer

About Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) Earnings

This page provides Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on ALLY's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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