Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns
1-Day Prediction
-0.27%
$152.57
0% positive prob.
5-Day Prediction
-1.12%
$151.27
0% positive prob.
20-Day Prediction
+0.34%
$153.50
0% positive prob.
| Quarter | Signal | 1D Return | 5D Return | 20D Return | Confidence | Actual 5D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | SELL | -0.27% | -1.12% | +0.34% | 100.0% | Pending |
| Q2 2026 | BUY | +1.14% | +3.29% | +3.24% | 100.0% | -1.34% |
SEC 8-K filings with transcript text
Nov 4, 2026 · 100% conf.
1D
-0.27%
$152.57
5D
-1.12%
$151.27
20D
+0.34%
$153.50
2 d190021dex991.htm
Exhibit 99.1
American Financial Group, Inc. Announces Third Quarter Results and Declares Special Dividend
•
Net earnings per share of $3.40 compared to $2.58 in the prior year third quarter
•
Record third quarter core net operating earnings of $3.97 per share, a 48% increase from the prior year period
•
Record third quarter pretax P&C operating income of $406 million
•
Third quarter growth in net written premiums of 9%
•
Third quarter annualized ROE of 22.3%; annualized core operating ROE of 26.0%
•
Overall average renewal rate increase, excluding workers’ compensation, of approximately 6%
•
Board of Directors declares $3.50 per share special dividend, payable November 25, 2026
CINCINNATI – November 3, 2026 – American Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: AFG) today reported 2026 third quarter net
earnings of $282 million ($3.40 per share) compared to $215 million ($2.58 per share) in the 2025 third quarter. Net earnings included net after-tax non-core items that reduced net income by $47 million ($0.57 per share loss) and $9 million ($0.11 per share loss) in the 2026 and 2025 third quarters, respectively. Annualized return on equity was 22.3% and 18.2% for the third quarters of 2026 and 2025, respectively, and is calculated excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI). Other details may be found in the table on the following page.
Core net operating earnings were $329 million ($3.97 per share) for the 2026 third quarter, compared to $224 million ($2.69 per share) in the 2025 third quarter, reflecting higher year-over-year net investment income. Additional details for the 2026 and 2025 third quarters may be found in the table below. Core net operating earnings for the third quarters of 2026 and 2025 generated annualized returns on equity of 26.0% and 19.0%, respectively, which is calculated excluding AOCI.
Three months ended September 30,
Components of Pretax Core Operating Earnings
2026
2025
2026
2025
2026
2025
In millions, except per share amounts
Before Impact of Alternative Investments
Alternative Investments
Core Net Operating Earnings, as reported
P&C Pretax Core Operating Earnings
$ 358
$ 285
$ 48
$ 43
$ 406
$ 328
Parent investment income - sale of Charleston Harbor
63
—
—
—
63
—
Other expenses
(28 )
(29 )
—
—
(28 )
(29 )
Holding company interest expense
(23 )
(19 )
—
—
(23 )
(19 )
Pretax Core Operating Earnings
370
237
48
43
418
280
Related provision for income taxes
79
47
10
9
89
56
Core Net Operating Earnings
$ 291
$ 190
$ 38
$ 34
$ 329
$ 224
Core Operating Earnings Per Share
$ 3.52
$ 2.28
$ 0.45
$ 0.41
$ 3.97
$ 2.69
Weighted Avg Diluted Shares Outstanding
82.9
83.4
82.9
83.4
82.9
83.4
AFG’s book value per share was $57.12 at September 30, 2026. AFG repurchased $26 million of its Common Stock (average price of $138.31 per share) and paid cash dividends of $0.88 per share during the third quarter. For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026, AFG’s change in book value per share plus dividends was (0.2%) and 6.0%, respectively, reflecting the impact of rising interest rates on AOCI.
Page 1
Book value per share excluding AOCI was $62.29 at September 30, 2026. For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026, AFG’s growth in book value per share excluding AOCI plus dividends was 5.5% and 13.8%, respectively.
AFG’s net earnings, determined in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), include certain items that may not be indicative of its ongoing core operations. The table below identifies such items and reconciles net earnings to core net operating earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure. AFG believes that its core net operating earnings provides management, financial analysts, ratings agencies, and investors with an understanding of the results from the ongoing operations of the Company by excluding the impact of net realized gains and losses and other items that are not necessarily indicative of operating trends. AFG’s management uses core net operating earnings to evaluate financial performance against historical results because it believes this provides a more comparable measure of its continuing business. Core net operating earnings is also used by AFG’s management as a basis for strategic planning and forecasting.
In millions, except per share amounts
Three months ended September 30,
Nine months ended September 30,
2026
2025
2026
2025
Components of net earnings:
Core operating earnings before income taxes
$ 418
$ 280
$ 975
$ 701
Pretax non-core items:
Realized gains (losses)
(35 )
13
(37 )
18
Special A&E charges
(24 )
(25 )
(24 )
(25 )
Earnings before income taxes
359
268
914
694
Provision for income taxes:
Core operating earnings
89
56
206
146
Non-core items
(12 )
(3 )
(13 )
5
Total provision for income taxes
77
53
193
151
Net earnings
$ 282
$ 215
$ 721
$ 543
Aug 5, 2026 · 100% conf.
1D
+1.14%
$148.41
Act: +0.00%
5D
+3.29%
$151.55
Act: -1.34%
20D
+3.24%
$151.49
Transcript text not available. View on SEC.gov →
Apr 30, 2026
This page provides American Financial Group Inc. (AFG) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.
Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on AFG's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.