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AI Earnings Predictions for Airbnb Inc. (ABNB)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+4.17%

$158.33

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+3.85%

$157.86

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+6.06%

$161.22

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $152.00 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q2 2026 BUY +4.17% +3.85% +6.06% 100.0% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL -5.03% -5.75% -4.56% 100.0% -4.98%
Q4 2025 SELL -5.03% -5.75% -4.56% 100.0% +10.45%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K BUY

Aug 6, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+4.17%

$158.33

Act: +16.62%

5D

+3.85%

$157.86

20D

+6.06%

$161.22

Price: $152.00 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001193125-26-337928

EX-99.1

2 d70413dex991.htm

EX-99.1

EX-99.1

Q2 2026 Revenue Key Financial $3.6B Measures 17% Y/Y 13% Y/Y (ex-FX) Net Income $816M 23% Net income margin Adjusted EBITDA* $1.3B 35% Adjusted EBITDA Margin Free Cash $1.3B Flow (“FCF”)* 35% FCF Margin Trailing Twelve Month $4.8B (“TTM”) FCF* 37% TTM FCF Margin Gross Booking Key Business $27.2B Value (“GBV”) Metrics 16% Y/Y 15% Y/Y (ex-FX) Nights and 148.3M Seats Booked 10% Y/Y A reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures is provided at the end of this letter. * 2

Q2 2026 Shareholder Letter Over the first half of 2026, we’ve delivered some of our strongest results in years. In Q2, that momentum accelerated as we exceeded our outlook across every key metric. Revenue grew 17% year-over-year to $3.6 billion. GBV grew 16% year-over-year to $27.2 billion, driven by continued strong demand as well as a moderate increase in Average Daily Rate (“ADR”). Nights and Seats Booked grew 10% year-over-year, accelerating from Q1 2026. Net income was $816 million and Adjusted EBITDA increased 21% year-over- year to $1.3 billion, representing an expansion in Adjusted EBITDA Margin to 35%. One of the most encouraging trends in Q2 was that we saw year-over-year growth accelerate not just in our expansion markets, but in many of our largest core markets as well. In fact, net origin nights booked in the U.S., France, the UK, and Australia all accelerated in Q2, reinforcing our confidence that our product innovation is driving demand across our business. We’ve rebuilt Airbnb from the ground up to be an AI-native company, and it’s showing up in our results. AI, combined with an exceptional team and better execution, is why we’re building and iterating faster than ever before. On key initiatives, we’ve reduced the time from concept to delivery by as much as 60%. And compared to the same period last year, we’ve increased the number of features and improvements we’ve shipped this year by nearly 80%. This faster pace of innovation is reshaping nearly every part of Airbnb and we believe it’s one of the reasons we’re outperforming our largest peers. Here are some highlights from the quarter: Making Airbnb better for guests and hosts Over the past two quarters, we’ve talked about our blueprint for improving Airbnb through hundreds of small improvements that compound over time. Those improvements are making it easier to book, easier to host, and driving growth across the business. For guests Search and discovery - With millions of homes and a growing selection of services and experiences on Airbnb, we improved search and discovery to help guests quickly find the right options for every trip. ¦ A redesigned homepage: Guests now see more relevant recommendations for listings, experiences, services, and destinations. ¦ Smarter search rankings: Search results prioritize higher-quality homes that are a better fit for each trip. ¦ Detailed neighborhood maps: Guests can explore nearby restaurants, landmarks, and transportation to better understand the neighborhoods where they’re staying. Login and sign-up - Every additional step before booking can create friction. We redesigned login and sign-up to help more guests access Airbnb and start booking. ¦ Redesigned sign-up and login: Guests can now create an account and sign in more easily across iOS, Android, and web. ¦ Added flexibility: Guests have additional ways to access their account, helping reduce login failures and customer support contacts. 3

Payments and checkout - The checkout experience can make the die ff

rence between browsing and booking. We expanded payment options and streamlined checkout to reduce friction and help more guests complete their booking. ¦ Reserve Now, Pay Later: Guests can now use Reserve Now, Pay Later on more listings in more countries, and they’ll see it more often throughout the booking journey. ¦ Flexible cancellation policies: Guests can more easily understand their cancellation options before booking. ¦ Updated checkout: Checkout now surfaces the most relevant promotions and credits for each guest, as well as eligible payment options. ¦ Interest-free installments: Eligible guests in Mexico and Brazil can now pay with interest- free installments. For hosts Pricing - Effective pricing is one of the biggest drivers of host success. We introduced simpler pricing and more flexible cancellation policies to help hosts succeed. ¦ Simplified pricing in Airbnb Setup: New hosts can more easily set die ff rent weekday and weekend rates. ¦ Single service fee for API hosts: Hosts can more easily set the same price guests see. ¦ Updated cancellation policies: We migrated eligible listings from Strict to Firm cancellation policies, helping hosts attract more bookings. Recommendations and insights - We’re providing hosts with more personalized recommendations and insights to help them improve their listings, attract more bookings, and increase their earning potential. ¦ Personalized recomme

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

May 7, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-5.03%

$133.61

Act: +0.66%

5D

-5.75%

$132.59

Act: -4.98%

20D

-4.56%

$134.27

Act: -5.08%

Price: $140.68 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001193125-26-211816

EX-99.1

2 d23351dex991.htm

EX-99.1

EX-99.1

Exhibit 99.1

1 §:)airbnb

Q1 2026 Key Financial Measures Revenue $2.7B 18% Y/Y 15% Y/Y (ex-FX) Net Income $160M 6% Net income margin Adjusted EBITDA* $519M 19% Adjusted EBITDA Margin Free Cash Flow $1.7B (“FCF”)* 64% FCF Margin Trailing Twelve Month $4.5B (“TTM”) FCF* 36% TTM FCF Margin Key Business Metrics Gross Booking Value $29.2B (“GBV”) 19% Y/Y 13% Y/Y (ex-FX) Nights and Seats Booked 156.2M 9% Y/Y *A reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures is provided at the end of this letter.

2

Q1 2026 Shareholder Letter Airbnb had a strong start to 2026. Last quarter, we talked about the deliberate path we’ve been on to rebuild our foundation and innovate faster. In Q1, that work continued to pay off. Revenue grew 18% year-over-year to $2.7 billion, exceeding the high end of our guidance. Guests spent nearly $30 billion on Airbnb in Q1. Gross Booking Value grew 19% year-over-year, driven by strong demand and continued pricing strength, aided by an FX tailwind. Nights and Seats Booked grew 9%, reflecting healthy underlying demand. Finally, our net income was $160 million and Adjusted EBITDA was $519 million, up 24% year-over-year. We’re seeing momentum across the business. Nights booked on our app accelerated during Q1, growing 22% year-over-year and accounted for 63% of total nights booked, up from 58% a year ago. First-time booker growth also accelerated to 10%—the highest growth since early 2022—with particularly strong acceleration in Brazil, Japan, and India, three of our key expansion markets. And origin net nights booked in our expansion markets grew at roughly twice the rate of our core markets. In India, origin nights booked grew approximately 50% year-over-year and in Brazil, origin nights grew over 20% for the third consecutive quarter. The innovation blueprint we highlighted last quarter is continuing to help deliver results across product improvements, guest acquisition, and international expansion. At the same time, we’re navigating a period of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. We saw that show up in slightly elevated cancellations this quarter in EMEA and Asia Pacific, primarily driven by the conflict in the Middle East. But this is exactly where our model demonstrates its resilience. When travel patterns shift, Airbnb adapts with them. When tariff uncertainty resulted in fewer people traveling to the U.S. last year, they still came to Airbnb and found somewhere else to go. We’re seeing a similar dynamic now. We have millions of homes, everywhere in the world, at every price point, and that’s something most travel companies can’t replicate. It’s a core reason we’re able to deliver consistent results, even in challenging environments. Here are some additional highlights from the quarter: Making Airbnb better for hosts and guests We’re giving guests more flexibility in how they pay with Reserve Now, Pay Later. And in Q1, roughly 20% of global GBV came from Reserve Now, Pay Later bookings. It’s one of the clearest examples of a change that is good for guests and good for the business: guests tend to book more when they have the flexibility to pay later. On the supply side, we’re addressing things hosts ask about most, including better pricing tools and a simpler way to get started on our platform. We’re improving our pricing tools to make it easier for hosts to dynamically price based on demand and seasonality, and we redesigned the host sign-up flow to make it easier to list your home. Expanding what Airbnb offers In Q1, we continued piloting new categories of services and experiences in select cities, and we plan to expand both offerings this summer. Early results show they’re proving to be a demand flywheel. Nearly a quarter of guests who are new to Airbnb and book an experience go on to book a stay or a service—and roughly one in three experience bookers book a stay within 90 days. Services and experiences are more

3

than just standalone products. They’re entry points that we believe will drive future demand across the platform. We’re also expanding our partnership with Delta Air Lines to allow travelers to earn Delta miles on qualifying Airbnb Experiences and Services, in addition to homes. And we’re scaling our boutique and independent hotel pilot to more markets around the world. Early results are encouraging, particularly in cities where supply is constrained by high demand or regulation. Bringing more hotels onto the platform helps us capture trips where a hotel may be the right choice, introduce new guests to Airbnb, and drive repeat bookings across both hotels and homes. In fact, approximately 55% of guests who book a hotel on Airbnb come back to book a home.1 At our May 20 Summer Release, you’ll hear more on how we’re expanding services, experiences, and hotels on Airbnb. Major events as a growth engine Our events partnership strategy is driving supply, demand, and brand awareness. Beyond the

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Feb 12, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-5.03%

$109.97

Act: +4.80%

5D

-5.75%

$109.13

Act: +10.45%

20D

-4.56%

$110.51

Price: $115.79 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001193125-26-048670

8-K

false 0001559720 0001559720 2026-02-12 2026-02-12

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): February 12, 2026

Airbnb, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Delaware

001-39778

26-3051428

(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)

(Commission File Number)

(IRS Employer Identification No.)

888 Brannan Street San Francisco, California 94103 (Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code) Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (415) 510-4027 Not applicable (Former name or former address, if changed since last report)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class

Trading Symbol(s)

Name of each exchange on which registered

Class A common stock, $0.0001 par value per share

ABNB

The Nasdaq Stock Market Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02. Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On February 12, 2026, Airbnb, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a Shareholder Letter (the “Letter”) announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. In the Letter, the Company also announced that it would be holding a conference call on February 12, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET to discuss its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Letter is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (“Form 8-K”) and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company is making reference to non-GAAP financial information in both the Letter and the conference call. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to their nearest GAAP equivalents is provided in the Letter. The information furnished pursuant to Item 2.02 of this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.

Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d) Exhibits.

Exhibit No.

Description

99.1

Shareholder Letter, dated February 12, 2026

104.1

Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

AIRBNB, INC.

Date: February 12, 2026

By:

/s/ ELINOR MERTZ

Elinor Mertz

Chief Financial Officer

About Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) Earnings

This page provides Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on ABNB's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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