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AI Earnings Predictions for Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-4.12%

$39.77

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-7.24%

$38.47

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-7.71%

$38.28

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $41.47 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q2 2026

Historical Earnings Predictions

Quarter Signal 1D Return 5D Return 20D Return Confidence Actual 5D
Q2 2026 SELL -4.12% -7.24% -7.71% 100.0% Pending
Q1 2026 SELL -4.12% -7.24% -7.71% 100.0% +2.64%
Q4 2025 SELL -4.16% -7.36% -7.53% 100.0% -5.91%

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2026
Q2

Q2 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

Aug 20, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-4.12%

$39.77

Act: +2.67%

5D

-7.24%

$38.47

20D

-7.71%

$38.28

Price: $41.47 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001193125-26-357755

EX-99.1

2 aap-ex99_1.htm

EX-99.1

EX-99.1

Exhibit 99.1

Advance Auto Parts Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results

l Q2 2026 Adjusted Operating Income Margin Expands By Over 250 Basis Points Year-Over-Year

l Reaffirms Full Year 2026 Sales, Adjusted Operating Income Margin and Free Cash Flow Guidance

l Repurchased Debt; Net Leverage Moved Lower to 2.1x in Q2 2026 From 2.4x in Q1 2026

RALEIGH, N.C., August 20, 2026 — Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE: AAP), a leading automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America, that serves both professional installer and do-it-yourself customers, announced its financial results for the second quarter ended July 18, 2026.

"During the second quarter, the Advance team maintained focus on executing our strategic initiatives to achieve solid profitability, while navigating a volatile demand environment and I thank the team for their hard work and commitment to serving our customers,” said Shane O'Kelly, president and chief executive officer. "Our second quarter comparable sales results reflected low-single-digit growth in the Pro channel, which performed in line with expectations along with Main Street Pro trends outpacing overall Pro trends. However, total enterprise sales performance was impacted by the DIY channel as tighter household budgets constrained spending more than we anticipated, especially during the last four weeks of the quarter. The focus on executing our initiatives helped Advance achieve a significant milestone with the return to positive year to date free cash flow, following two years of outflows. We view this as an important proof point in our strategic journey as we work to create long-term value for our shareholders."

Second Quarter 2026 Results (1)

Second quarter 2026 net sales totaled $2.0 billion, compared with $2.0 billion in the second quarter of the prior year. Comparable store sales for the second quarter 2026 decreased 0.5%.

The Company's second quarter 2026 gross profit was $0.9 billion, or 46.2% of net sales compared with $0.9 billion, or 43.5% in the second quarter of 2025. Adjusted gross profit was $0.9 billion, or 46.2% of net sales in the second quarter of 2026 compared with $0.9 billion, or 43.8% in the second quarter of 2025. Second quarter 2026 adjusted gross profit included $26 million in refunds related to tariffs that were previously paid under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Excluding these refunds, the increase in gross profit as a percentage of net sales compared to the second quarter of 2025 was primarily driven by expansion in product margin supported by our merchandising initiatives.

The Company's second quarter 2026 selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses were $0.8 billion, or 41.1% of net sales compared with $0.9 billion, or 42.4% of net sales in the second quarter of 2025. Adjusted SG&A expenses were $0.8 billion, or 40.6% of net sales in the second quarter of 2026 compared with $0.8 billion, or 40.7% of net sales in the second quarter of 2025.

The Company's second quarter 2026 operating income was $101 million, or 5.1% of net sales, compared with $22 million, or 1.1% of net sales in the second quarter of 2025. Adjusted operating income was $112 million or 5.6% of net sales in the second quarter of 2026, compared with $61 million or 3.0% of net sales in the second quarter of 2025.

(1) The Company calculates comparable store sales based on the change in store sales starting once a location has been open for approximately one year and by including e-commerce sales and excluding sales fulfilled by distribution centers to independently owned Carquest locations. The Company includes sales from relocated stores in comparable store sales from the original date of opening. Closed stores are not included in the comparable store sales calculation. Comparable store sales is intended only as supplemental information and is not a substitute for Net sales presented in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America ("GAAP").

The Company's second quarter 2026 diluted earnings per share was $0.90, compared with $0.25 in the second quarter of 2025. Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $1.03 in the second quarter of 2026, compared with $0.69 in the second quarter of 2025. Tariff refunds contributed approximately $0.31 to second quarter 2026 adjusted diluted earnings per share.

Capital Allocation

During the second quarter of 2026, the Company repurchased and retired approximately $30 million of principal outstanding debt.

On August 18, 2026, the Company declared a regular cash dividend of $0.25 per share to be paid on October 23, 2026 to all common stockholders of record as of October 9, 2026.

Full Year 2026 Guidance(1)

The Company has reaffirmed its full year 2026 guidance for net sales, comparable store sales, adjusted operating income margin, capital expenditures and free cash flow. Adjusted diluted EPS guidance has been revised to reflect hi

2026
Q1

Q1 2026 Earnings

8-K SELL

May 21, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-4.12%

$56.21

Act: -2.75%

5D

-7.24%

$54.38

Act: +2.64%

20D

-7.71%

$54.10

Price: $58.62 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001193125-26-233346

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2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Feb 13, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-4.16%

$56.40

Act: -3.59%

5D

-7.36%

$54.52

Act: -5.91%

20D

-7.53%

$54.42

Price: $58.85 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001193125-26-049776

8-K

0001158449false00011584492026-02-132026-02-13

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): February 13, 2026

Advance Auto Parts, Incorporated (Exact name of Registrant as Specified in Its Charter)

Delaware

001-16797

54-2049910

(State or Other Jurisdiction of Incorporation)

(Commission File Number)

(IRS Employer Identification No.)

4200 Six Forks Road

Raleigh, North Carolina

27609

(Address of Principal Executive Offices)

(Zip Code)

Registrant’s Telephone Number, Including Area Code: (540) 3624911

(Former Name or Former Address, if Changed Since Last Report)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions: ☐Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) ☐Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) ☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) ☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)) Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class

Trading Symbol(s)

Name of each exchange on which registered

Common Stock, $0.0001 par value

AAP

New York Stock Exchange

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§ 230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§ 240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

INFORMATION TO BE INCLUDED IN THE REPORT

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On February 13, 2026, Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release setting forth its financial results for its fourth quarter and year ended January 3, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report and is hereby incorporated by reference in this Item 2.02.

As provided in General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information and exhibit contained in this Item 2.02 shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d) Exhibits.

Exhibit No.

Exhibit Description

99.1

Press Release, dated February 13, 2026, issued by Advance Auto Parts, Inc.

101.1

Pursuant to Rule 406 of Regulation S-T, the cover page to this Current Report on Form 8-K is formatted in Inline XBRL.

104.1

Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document included in Exhibit 101.1)

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

ADVANCE AUTO PARTS, INC.

February 13, 2026

/s/ Ryan P. Grimsland

Ryan P. Grimsland

Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

About Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) Earnings

This page provides Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on AAP's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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