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AI Earnings Predictions for Stellar Bancorp Inc. (STEL)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

BUY

1-Day Prediction

+2.02%

$37.16

100% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+5.77%

$38.52

100% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

+8.96%

$39.68

95% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $36.42 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q4 2025

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

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2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K BUY

Jan 28, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction BUY

1D

+2.02%

$37.16

5D

+5.77%

$38.52

20D

+8.96%

$39.68

Price: $36.42 Prob +5D: 100% AUC: 1.000
0001104659-26-007187

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0001473844

2026-01-28 2026-01-28

iso4217:USD

xbrli:shares

iso4217:USD

xbrli:shares

UNITED

STATES

SECURITIES

AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington,

D.C. 20549

Form 8-K

CURRENT

REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event Reported): January 28, 2026

Stellar Bancorp, Inc.

(Exact Name of Registrant as Specified in Charter)

Texas 001-38280 20-8339782

(State or Other Jurisdiction of Incorporation) (Commission File Number) (I.R.S. Employer Identification Number)

9 Greenway Plaza, Suite 110

Houston,Texas 77046

(Address of Principal Executive Offices) (Zip Code)

(713) 210-7600

(Registrant's telephone number, including area code)

(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

¨ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

¨ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

¨ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

¨ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class

Trading

Symbol(s)

Name of each exchange on which registered

Common stock, par value $0.01 per share

STEL

New York Stock Exchange

NYSE Texas

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).

Emerging growth company ¨

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ¨

Item 2.02. Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On January 28, 2026, Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.

In accordance with General Instruction B.2 to Form 8-K, the information furnished in this Item 2.02 and Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and such information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.

Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure

As a result of today’s announcement that the Company has entered into a merger agreement with Prosperity Bancshares, Inc., the Company has cancelled the previously announced conference call regarding the Company’s fourth quarter results, which was scheduled for Friday, January 30, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. Central Time (9:00 a.m. Eastern Time).

Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits.

Exhibits. The following are furnished as exhibits to this Current Report on Form 8-K:

Exhibit Number

Description of Exhibit

99.1

Q4 2025 Earnings Release

104

Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

Forward-Looking Statements

This Current Report on Form 8-K contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the Company’s actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements anticipated in such statements. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made and, except as required by law, the Company does not assume any duty to update forward-looking statements. Such

forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements concerning the Company’s plans, objectives, strategies, expectations,

intentions and other statements that are not statements of historical fact, and may be identified by words such as “anticipates,” “believes,” “building,” “continue,” “could,” “drive,” “estimates,” “expects,” “extent,” “focus,” “forecasts,” “goal,” “guidance,” “intends,” “may,” “might,” “outlook,” “plan,” “position,” “probable,” “progressing,” “projects,” “prudent,” “seeks,” “should,” “target,” “view,” “will” or “would” or the negative of these words and phrases or similar words or phrases. For a list of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking st

2025
Q3

Q3 2025 Earnings

8-K

Oct 24, 2025

0001473844-25-000062

stel-202510240001473844FALSE00014738442025-10-242025-10-24

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549


Form 8-K


CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event Reported): October 24, 2025 Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (Exact Name of Registrant as Specified in Charter)

Texas001-3828020-8339782 (State or Other Jurisdiction of Incorporation)(Commission File Number)(I.R.S. Employer Identification Number)

9 Greenway Plaza, Suite 110 Houston, Texas 77046 (Address of Principal Executive Offices) (Zip Code) (713) 210-7600 (Registrant's telephone number, including area code) (Former name or former address, if changed since last report) Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

£Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

£Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

£Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

£Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each classTrading Symbol(s) Name of each exchange on which registered Common stock, par value $0.01 per shareSTEL New York Stock Exchange NYSE Texas

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company £ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. £

Item 2.02. Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On October 24, 2025 Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter of 2025. A copy of the press release, as well as a copy of the accompanying earnings presentation, are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 hereto, respectively, and incorporated herein by reference.

In accordance with General Instruction B.2 to Form 8-K, the information furnished in this Item 2.02, Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and such information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, (the ”Securities Act”), except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.

Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure

On Friday, October 24, 2025, at 8:00 a.m., Central Time, the Company will host an investor conference call and webcast to review its third quarter 2025 financial results. The earnings release and earnings presentation will be posted on the Company’s website. The earnings release and presentation materials are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 to Form 8-K, the information furnished in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.2 of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and such information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.

Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits.

Exhibits. The following are furnished as exhibits to this Current Report on Form 8-K:

Exhibit NumberDescription of Exhibit 99.1Q3 2025 Earnings Release

99.2Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation

104Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

Forward-Looking Statements

This Current Report on Form 8-K contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the Company’s actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements anticipated in such statements. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made and, except as required by law, the Company does not assume any duty to update forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are n

2025
Q2

Q2 2025 Earnings

8-K

Jul 25, 2025

0001473844-25-000047

stel-202507250001473844FALSE00014738442025-07-252025-07-25

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549


Form 8-K


CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event Reported): July 25, 2025 Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (Exact Name of Registrant as Specified in Charter)

Texas001-3828020-8339782 (State or Other Jurisdiction of Incorporation)(Commission File Number)(I.R.S. Employer Identification Number)

9 Greenway Plaza, Suite 110 Houston, Texas 77046 (Address of Principal Executive Offices) (Zip Code) (713) 210-7600 (Registrant's telephone number, including area code) (Former name or former address, if changed since last report) Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

£Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

£Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

£Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

£Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each classTrading Symbol(s) Name of each exchange on which registered Common stock, par value $0.01 per shareSTEL New York Stock Exchange NYSE Texas

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company £ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. £

Item 2.02. Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On July 25, 2025 Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter of 2025. A copy of the press release, as well as a copy of the accompanying earnings presentation, are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 hereto, respectively, and incorporated herein by reference.

In accordance with General Instruction B.2 to Form 8-K, the information furnished in this Item 2.02, Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and such information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, (the ”Securities Act”), except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.

Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure

On Friday, July 25, 2025, at 8:00 a.m., Central Time, the Company will host an investor conference call and webcast to review its second quarter 2025 financial results. The earnings release and earnings presentation will be posted on the Company’s website. The earnings release and presentation materials are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 to Form 8-K, the information furnished in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.2 of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and such information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.

Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits.

Exhibits. The following are furnished as exhibits to this Current Report on Form 8-K:

Exhibit NumberDescription of Exhibit 99.1Q2 2025 Earnings Release

99.2Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation

104Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

Forward-Looking Statements

This Current Report on Form 8-K contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the Company’s actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements anticipated in such statements. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made and, except as required by law, the Company does not assume any duty to update forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limi

About Stellar Bancorp Inc. (STEL) Earnings

This page provides Stellar Bancorp Inc. (STEL) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on STEL's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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