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AI Earnings Predictions for Shopify Inc. (SHOP)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

HOLD

1-Day Prediction

-1.25%

$117.13

50% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

+3.30%

$122.52

50% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-2.47%

$115.68

48% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $118.61 Confidence: 0.0% Model AUC: 0.5000 Quarter: Q4 2025

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

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2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K HOLD

Feb 11, 2026 · 0% conf.

AI Prediction HOLD

1D

-1.25%

$117.13

5D

+3.30%

$122.52

20D

-2.47%

$115.68

Price: $118.61 Prob +5D: 50% AUC: 0.500
0001594805-26-000006

shop-20260211FALSE000159480500015948052026-02-112026-02-110001594805dei:OtherAddressMember2026-02-112026-02-11

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549


FORM 8-K


CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): February 11, 2026


Shopify Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)


Canada001-3740098-0486686 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)(Commission File Number)(IRS Employer Identification No.)

151 O'Connor Street, Ground Floor85 10th Ave, Suite 800 Ottawa,OntarioNew York,New York CanadaK2P 2L8USA10011 (Address of Principal Executive Offices) (Zip Code)

Registrant’s Telephone Number, Including Area Code: (613) 241-2828 x 1045


Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

☐Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: Title of each classTradingName of each exchange on which registered Class A Subordinate Voting SharesSHOPThe Nasdaq Global Select Market

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.  ☐

Item 2.02.    Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On February 11, 2026, Shopify Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, as well as a share repurchase program. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.

The information furnished with this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.

Item 7.01.    Regulation FD Disclosure.

On February 11, 2026, the Company also announced that its Board of Directors authorized the Company to repurchase up to US$2.0 billion of its Class A subordinate voting shares ("Class A Subordinate Voting Shares"), provided that the number of Class A Subordinate Voting Shares repurchased does not exceed 5% of the Company's issued and outstanding Class A Subordinate Voting Shares. The repurchase program will go into effect on February 17, 2026 and does not have a fixed expiration. The actual timing, number and value of Class A Subordinate Voting Shares repurchased will depend on a variety of factors, including price, general business and market conditions, applicable legal requirements and alternative investment opportunities. The repurchase program may be effected through open market purchases on the Nasdaq, privately negotiated transactions, including block trades, or other means, in compliance with applicable Canadian and United States securities laws, including Rule 10b-18 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and including through Rule 10b5-1 trading plans. Additional information related to the repurchase program is included in the press release, a copy of which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.

Item 9.01.    Financial Statements and Exhibits.

Exhibit No.Description

99.1Press release of financial results issued by Shopify Inc. on February 11, 2026

104Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

SHOPIFY INC.

Date: February 11, 2026 By:/s/ Michael L. Johnson Name: Michael L. Johnson

Title: Corporate Secretary

2025
Q3

Q3 2025 Earnings

8-K

Nov 4, 2025

0001594805-25-000088

shop-20251104FALSE000159480500015948052025-11-042025-11-040001594805dei:OtherAddressMember2025-11-042025-11-04

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549


FORM 8-K


CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): November 4, 2025


Shopify Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)


Canada001-3740098-0486686 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)(Commission File Number)(IRS Employer Identification No.)

151 O'Connor Street, Ground Floor85 10th Ave, Suite 800 Ottawa,OntarioNew York,New York CanadaK2P 2L8USA10011 (Address of Principal Executive Offices) (Zip Code)

Registrant’s Telephone Number, Including Area Code: (613) 241-2828 x 1045


Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

☐Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: Title of each classTradingName of each exchange on which registered Class A Subordinate Voting SharesSHOPThe Nasdaq Global Select Market

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.  ☐

Item 2.02.    Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On November 4, 2025, Shopify Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.

The information furnished with this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.

Item 9.01.    Financial Statements and Exhibits.

Exhibit No.Description

99.1Press release of financial results issued by Shopify Inc. on November 4, 2025

104Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

SHOPIFY INC.

Date: November 4, 2025 By:/s/ Michael L. Johnson Name: Michael L. Johnson

Title: Corporate Secretary

2025
Q2

Q2 2025 Earnings

8-K

Aug 6, 2025

0001594805-25-000072

shop-20250806FALSE000159480500015948052025-08-062025-08-060001594805dei:OtherAddressMember2025-08-062025-08-06

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549


FORM 8-K


CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): August 6, 2025


Shopify Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)


Canada001-3740098-0486686 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)(Commission File Number)(IRS Employer Identification No.)

151 O'Connor Street, Ground Floor148 Lafayette Street Ottawa,OntarioNew York,New York CanadaK2P 2L8USA10013 (Address of Principal Executive Offices) (Zip Code)

Registrant’s Telephone Number, Including Area Code: (613) 241-2828 x 1045


Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

☐Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: Title of each classTradingName of each exchange on which registered Class A Subordinate Voting SharesSHOPThe Nasdaq Global Select Market

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company ☐

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.  ☐

Item 2.02.    Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On August 6, 2025, Shopify Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.

The information furnished with this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.

Item 9.01.    Financial Statements and Exhibits.

Exhibit No.Description

99.1Press release of financial results issued by Shopify Inc. on August 6, 2025

104Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

SHOPIFY INC.

Date: August 6, 2025 By:/s/ Michael L. Johnson Name: Michael L. Johnson

Title: Corporate Secretary

About Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Earnings

This page provides Shopify Inc. (SHOP) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on SHOP's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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